Communicating with animal spirits in the bond market for @business. If you're one of them (or even if not): Opinions mine, etc.

Hidden Dangers in Bond Funds Make Stocks Look Relatively Stable — Bond funds, long considered among the safest investments, are turning out to be a lot riskier than they seem. Historically, their returns have been far less prone to sudden swings than stock funds. Not this year.

Treasury Notes Decline as Economy Gains With Fed Poised on Rates — Treasury notes fell after a report showed the U.S. economy accelerated in the second quarter, a day after the Federal Reserve left open the door to raising interest rates in September or December. Shorter-term debt yields rose as U.S.

Treasury Bears Are Tougher to Find After Crude Oil Prices Plunge — The ranks of bearish investors in U.S. government debt have thinned, thanks to the decline in crude oil prices. This month's 10 percent dive in commodity prices led to a drop in the bond market's inflation forecasts. Lower inflation is good for long-term Treasuries, and investors are noticing.

Treasury Bond Bulls Gain Upper Hand in Futures Positioning Shift — The latest dive in commodity prices has prompted hedge funds and other large speculators to take a bullish view on Treasuries for the first time since last fall. Speculative accounts added a net of nearly 33,000 10-year U.S. Treasury futures contracts as of July 21, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Jul 24, 2015

RT @PaulCoxNY: Treasury Bond Bulls Gain Upper Hand in Futures Positioning Shift via @business, @alexandrascaggs

Jul 26, 2015

Some weeks Investors seem convinced we're going to see more inflation soon. Last week, not so much. @alexandrascaggs

Jul 26, 2015

RT @LisaAbramowicz1: Some weeks Investors seem convinced we're going to see more inflation soon. Last week, not so much. @alexandrascaggs

Jul 26, 2015

RT @LisaAbramowicz1: Some weeks Investors seem convinced we're going to see more inflation soon. Last week, not so much. @alexandrascaggs

Show 3 more tweets from Paul Cox, Rob Urban and others...

Treasuries Swing on Intel as Corporates Exert More Market Force — News of a debt offering from Intel Corp. took Treasuries on a rollercoaster ride.The swings Wednesday are the latest sign that corporate-bond offerings are driving bigger moves in U.S. government debt prices this year, as a historic wave of issuance competes with Treasuries for space in investors' portfolios, according to strategists at Bank of America Corp.
Jul 22, 2015

Corporate America's borrowing spree has been pushing around the price of the government's debt this year.… v @business

Fed's 2015 Rate-Rise Plans Propel Treasury Note Yields Higher — The U.S. government-bond market is embracing the reality of Federal Reserve officials' plans to raise interest rates this year.That's been especially apparent for shorter-term securities, which have underperformed longer-term notes for a third-straight day, as they are seen as more closely tied to Fed policy moves. St.

Trading Fast and Slow Fuels Turbulence in Treasury Market — The chasm in the Treasury market between microsecond traders and comparatively slow-poke humans is making it harder to navigate the $12.7 trillion business, according to Tabb Group LLC. What's more, it may have helped fueled the extreme volatility on Oct.
Jul 20, 2015

The difference between human speed and HFT speed in the Treasury market may have been behind Oct. 15

Jul 20, 2015

The market for U.S. debt is torn between high-speeding trading firms & their slower human peers -… v @business

Treasury Yield Curve Twists to Follow Yellen’s Rate-Rise Plans — The Treasury market is repositioning to reflect Janet Yellen's plans to raise interest rates this year. The difference between yields on two- and 30-year government debt narrowed, driven by a decline in concern that turmoil abroad would delay the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate increase since 2006.

It's Going to Be a Long, Slow Trip Higher for U.S. Interest Rates — The bond market is starting to agree with Janet Yellen that rates are likely to rise gradually during the next couple of years. Yellen, the Federal Reserve chair, said the central bank should be able to raise rates by the end of this year during her semi-annual testimony to Congress.
Jul 15, 2015

It's going to be a long, slow trip higher for U.S. rates. That's what bond traders think anyway @alexandrascaggs

Jul 15, 2015

The bond market and Yellen agree on one thing: interest rates probably won't rise quickly.… v @business

Wild Treasuries Trading Spurs Transparency Push From Washington — The historic swings that rocked the $12.7 trillion Treasury market in October are spurring U.S. authorities to consider expanding public reporting of trading activity to government bonds. An assessment of publicly available information on Treasury market transactions and pricing is one recommendation in a 76-page report released Monday as the Treasury Department seeks to prevent excessive volatility.
Jul 15, 2015

Wild Treasuries Trading Spurs Transparency Push From Washington via @business

Jul 15, 2015

RT @roburban: Wild Treasuries Trading Spurs Transparency Push From Washington via @business

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Aug 02, 2015

Supposedly dumb quiz show @waitwait asked about last week's FOMC meeting! Big days on the U.S. Treasury beat, man.

Jul 30, 2015

RT @LisaAbramowicz1: This coal company, which has $2.9 billion of debt, is planning to file for bankruptcy: sources. @jodixu @laurajkeller

Jul 30, 2015

SO excited to see the hands-on analyst research that will come out of this (a la GoPro:…)…

Jul 29, 2015

@ForexMacronia @TheStalwart Must admit, that's my US-native bias at work. (Just find it easier to understand with USD first.)

Jul 29, 2015

that was a heckuva knee-jerk move in the dollar/euro exchange rate

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