Chief economics writer for @fivethirtyeight. Formerly with the Wall Street Journal. Links/RTs are not endorsements.
7) ... I'll end here: My piece was mostly aimed at those who project endless growth, which is impossible. When does turn come? We'll see.
6) I've done some preliminary work to try to model the range of likely outcomes, but not yet ready for prime-time. So for now...
5) But remember: Not enough for wells to keep getting better. Have to get ENOUGH better to offset decline rates.
4) IP rates have been rising--longer laterals, bigger/better fracks. How long can that continue? I don't think anyone knows that answer.
3) Rig counts are flat to falling. Efficiency (wells/rig) rising, but there's a limit there. So key is size of wells themselves (IP rate).
2) Issue is the treadmill. High decline rates mean you have to drill either more or better wells (or both) for production to keep rising.
1) I don't dispute there's lots of oil in the Bakken. As I wrote: "The issue isn’t whether North Dakota will run out of oil."
I'm on vacation this week, so I'm mostly going to sit the debate out, but a couple brief responses in following tweets.