Ben Casselman on Muck Rack

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Chief Economics Writer, FiveThirtyEight

Chief economics writer for @fivethirtyeight. Formerly with the Wall Street Journal. Links/RTs are not endorsements.

Jul 23, 2014

RT @mattdrn: But why are rig counts down in Bakken? Because they're going other places- Permian/Utica/Niobrara. So total US will keep rising. (2/3)

Jul 23, 2014

@EMostaque I haven't looked at recent Permian results in detail, but yeah, Utica seems disappointing so far.

Jul 23, 2014

7) ... I'll end here: My piece was mostly aimed at those who project endless growth, which is impossible. When does turn come? We'll see.

Jul 23, 2014

6) I've done some preliminary work to try to model the range of likely outcomes, but not yet ready for prime-time. So for now...

Jul 23, 2014

5) But remember: Not enough for wells to keep getting better. Have to get ENOUGH better to offset decline rates.

Jul 23, 2014

4) IP rates have been rising--longer laterals, bigger/better fracks. How long can that continue? I don't think anyone knows that answer.

Jul 23, 2014

3) Rig counts are flat to falling. Efficiency (wells/rig) rising, but there's a limit there. So key is size of wells themselves (IP rate).

Jul 23, 2014

2) Issue is the treadmill. High decline rates mean you have to drill either more or better wells (or both) for production to keep rising.

Jul 23, 2014

1) I don't dispute there's lots of oil in the Bakken. As I wrote: "The issue isn’t whether North Dakota will run out of oil."

Jul 23, 2014

I'm on vacation this week, so I'm mostly going to sit the debate out, but a couple brief responses in following tweets.

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