I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, demographics, and polling. Northwest expat.

Why Carly Fiorina Has a Tough Climb to Make the Next Debate Cutoff

nytimes.com — Carly Fiorina has surged in the polls after her strong performance in the so-called kiddie debate - the debate for candidates who weren't in the top 10 in public opinion polls to qualify for the main Fox News debate on Aug. 6. She has moved up to sixth place in the Huffington Post Pollster average.
Aug 27, 2015

Why Carly Fiorina Has a Tough Climb to Make the Next Debate Cutoff nytimes.com/2015/08/28/ups…

Aug 27, 2015

RT @UpshotNYT: You would think Fiorina is a lock for the next debate's top 10. But that's far from assured. nyti.ms/1JmPkj2 pic.twitter.com/TctW41E0IJ

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The Inequality of Support in Bernie Sanders’s Campaign

nytimes.com — The supporters of Bernie Sanders keep telling me that I'm wrong about their coalition, which I've writtenis too narrow to succeed. At this rate, Mr. Sanders doesn't have nearly enough support among moderate, nonwhite and Southern voters to win the Democratic presidential nomination.
Aug 27, 2015

Forget the Gini coefficient. @Nate_Cohn brings us the Berni coefficient to show why Bernie Sanders faces long odds. nytimes.com/2015/08/28/ups…

Aug 27, 2015

RT @Neil_Irwin: Forget the Gini coefficient. @Nate_Cohn brings us the Berni coefficient to show why Bernie Sanders faces long odds. nytimes.com/2015/08/28/ups…

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Voters who don’t regularly vote in primaries raising Trump’s poll numbers

seattletimes.com — An analysis of the data revealed that Donald Trump fares best among voters who don't regularly participate in primary elections. Ever since Donald Trump has risen to the top of the polls, Republican strategists have questioned whether those polls might be overestimating his support. There is evidence to support that theory.

There’s Evidence That Trump’s Polling Support Is Overstated

nytimes.com — Ever since Donald Trump has risen to the top of the polls, Republican strategists have questioned whether those polls might be overestimating his support. There is evidence to support that theory. We wrote about Mr. Trump's support on Sunday, using polling data provided by Civis Analytics, a Democratic data firm founded by the 2012 Obama campaign's analytics director, Dan Wagner.
Aug 26, 2015

Trump may fare worse among primary voters than GOP adults, but Bush loses even more. nytimes.com/2015/08/27/ups… pic.twitter.com/0oo88pbtgd

Aug 26, 2015

RT @Nate_Cohn: Trump may fare worse among primary voters than GOP adults, but Bush loses even more. nytimes.com/2015/08/27/ups… pic.twitter.com/0oo88pbtgd

Aug 26, 2015

There’s Evidence That Trump’s Polling Support Is Overstated, via @nytimes nytimes.com/2015/08/27/ups…

Aug 26, 2015

RT @kwcollins: GREAT piece by @Nate_Cohn on how voter-file based polling differs from RDD samples, feat. @CivisAnalytics research nytimes.com/2015/08/27/ups…

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Pesquisas e eleitores explicam a popularidade de Donald Trump

www1.folha.uol.com.br — Nos centros de comando das campanhas presidenciais republicanas, os assessores dos pré-candidatos se consolam com a ideia de que o domínio de Donald J.

Why Donald Trump Won’t Fold: Polls and People Speak

mobile.nytimes.com — Jeff Haller for The New York Times In the command centers of Republican presidential campaigns, aides have drawn comfort from the belief that Donald J. Trump 's dominance in the polls is a political summer fling, like Herman Cain in 2011 - an unsustainable boomlet dependent on megawatt celebrity, narrow appeal and unreliable surveys of Americans with a spotty record of actually voting in primaries.
Aug 23, 2015

╭◜◝ ͡ ◜◝ ͡ ◜◝ ╮ ( He's gonna ) ( win ) ╰◟◞ ͜ ◟ ◟◞ ͜ ╯ O o ° 🚶 mobile.nytimes.com/2015/08/23/us/…

Why Donald Trump Won’t Fold: Polls and People Speak

nytimes.com — In the command centers of Republican presidential campaigns, aides have drawn comfort from the belief that Donald J. Trump 's dominance in the polls is a political summer fling, like Herman Cain in 2011 - an unsustainable boomlet dependent on megawatt celebrity, narrow appeal and unreliable surveys of Americans with a spotty record of actually voting in primaries.
Aug 22, 2015

Big headline in tonight's New York Times: Why Donald Trump Won’t Fold: Polls and People Speak nytimes.com/2015/08/23/us/…

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The Most Important Story in the G.O.P. Race Isn’t About Donald Trump

nytimes.com — Donald Trump is dominating the news media and the Internet. He is leading in the polls. But even as journalists scour those surveys for signs of whether his surge will last, an important story with the potential to decide the race is being overlooked. The Aug.
Aug 18, 2015

Bush and Walker are in very comparable polling positions in NH and IA. Only Walker is overreacting. Bad instinct. mobile.nytimes.com/2015/08/19/ups…

Aug 18, 2015

The post-debate period poses huge tests for Walker and Bush. So far, Walker isn't passing. mobile.nytimes.com/2015/08/19/ups…

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Is Hillary Clinton Really in Danger of Losing the Primary?

nytimes.com — Bernie Sanders is said to be surging, Joe Biden is considering jumping in the race, and Hillary Rodham Clinton 's unfavorable ratings are the worst they've been in her 23-plus years in national politics - lower than they were in 2007 or 2008.
Aug 14, 2015

RT @nytimes: Is Hillary Clinton really in danger of losing the primary? nyti.ms/1DRMbdT

Aug 14, 2015

Is Hillary Clinton Really in Danger of Losing the Primary? nyti.ms/1TvapSx

Aug 14, 2015

Important: Sanders "voters are plentiful in the well-educated, more secular enclaves where journalists roam" nytimes.com/2015/08/16/ups…

Aug 13, 2015

Yes MT @Nate_Cohn: If GHWB had a 60% approval, would we remember Bill Clinton as a bad candidate, doomed by scandal? nytimes.com/2015/08/16/ups…

Aug 13, 2015

RT @clairecm: Despite Biden, Sanders & Hillary's unfavorability ratings, she's not actually in danger. @Nate_Cohn explains: http://t.co/Sll…

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Sep 03, 2015

RT @mikiebarb: Why is Hugh Hewitt become such a big deal? He had the gumption to ask these questions of Trump: nytimes.com/politics/first…

Sep 03, 2015

RT @realDonaldTrump: I hope Tom Brady sues the hell out of the @nfl for incompetence & defamation. They will drop the case against him--and…

Sep 03, 2015

Did Bush go on GMA this morning to talk about Trump comments and Spanish, or the attack ad his camp ran two days ago?

Sep 02, 2015

It will be strong, classy. A high energy speech. The greatest speech god every created twitter.com/Neil_Irwin/sta…

Sep 02, 2015

Really looking forward to the prime time Trump address at the RNC

Sep 02, 2015

RT @ratherironic: Just noticed how well the Obama logo works for Trump with some simple color changes and rotation. pic.twitter.com/1r91SeXTDx

Sep 02, 2015

@skoczela i imagine they're going for something like @mollyesque today, but with a more data/empirically minded editorial directive


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