I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, demographics, and polling. Northwest expat.

Número de cristãos nos EUA é o menor já registado

www1.folha.uol.com.br — A proporção de cristãos entre os adultos dos Estados Unidos caiu acentuadamente de 2007 para cá, o que afeta quase todas as grandes tradições e denominações do cristianismo no país e cruza linhas de idade, raça e religião, de acordo com uma extensa pesquisa do Pew Research Center.

Big Drop in Share of Americans Calling Themselves Christian

nytimes.com — The Christian share of adults in the United States has declined sharply since 2007, affecting nearly all major Christian traditions and denominations, and crossing age, race and region, according to an extensive survey by the Pew Research Center.

Mike Huckabee and the Continuing Influence of Evangelicals

nytimes.com — The religious right remains the largest voting bloc in the Republican Party, and that gives Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, the potential to play a big role in the presidential nominating contest.

The Problem for Bernie Sanders: The Narrow Lane to Hillary Clinton’s Left

nytimes.com — The presidential candidacy of Bernie Sanders, a senator from Vermont and self-described socialist who will most likely champion the liberal cause, won't change that fact that Hillary Rodham Clinton is poised to win the Democratic nomination without a serious contest.

Why a Ruling for Same-Sex Marriage Would Help Republicans

nytimes.com — Many Republicans believe that their party needs to improve its image among the new generation of young and nonwhite voters who have helped President Obama win two terms. Yet there is a reason most Republican politicians have not tailored their positions on major issues toward younger voters: Doing so would risk angering the party's base, which is predominantly old, white and culturally conservative.

How to Read the Ups and Downs of Polling in the G.O.P. Race

nytimes.com — The polling roller coaster, as FiveThirtyEight's Harry Enten put it, has begun. One week the headline is " Ted Cruz Surging in Polls." Three weeks later, it's " Marco Rubio Surges to Front of G.O.P. Pack."

Mike Huckabee Would Be a More Important Candidate Than You Might Think

nytimes.com — The most important name that you haven't heard much about in the Republican primary race is nonetheless a familiar one: Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor who took the pageantry of presidential announcements to a nearly parodic level on Friday by appearing on national television to announce that he would announce whether he would run on May 5.

Big Money From Super PACs Is Eroding the Power of Parties

nytimes.com — Six months ago, I would have told you that April 15, the date when campaigns report their first-quarter fund-raising tallies, could be one of the most interesting early milestones of the Republican primary season. I think I even told my boss, admittedly with hyperbole, that the Q1 report of a year preceding a presidential election was the most important fund-raising report in American politics.

Marco Rubio Is Talented, but Out of Position

nytimes.com — Marco Rubio, who announced his bid for the presidency on Monday in a calll to donors, has been called the "best communicator" in the Republican Party. Over and over and over again. But he has little to show for it. He enters the fray with surprisingly low support.

Hillary Clinton Doesn’t Need a Primary Fight

nytimes.com — Hillary Clinton has a better chance of winning her party's nomination without a serious contest than any nonincumbent in the modern era. If that happens, she will be lucky to avoid the fight. Most of the concerns about an unopposed Clinton candidacy are overstated, and there are big reasons she will benefit from running unopposed in the presidential primary.
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May 23, 2015

Didn't follow the Ireland referendum--were the results in line with expectations/polling?

May 23, 2015

RT @nytimes: Breaking News: Ireland Becomes First Country to Legalize Gay Marriage by Popular Vote nyti.ms/1cbBo0X

May 22, 2015

RT @Neil_Irwin: 1st rule of contingency planning for possible EU exit: Don't talk about it. 2nd rule: Don't e-mail Guardian about it. theguardian.com/business/2015/…

May 21, 2015

Washington is a must-win state for any anti-Clinton candidate. It's not happening.

May 21, 2015

@conorsen i don't think so, but it makes sense. he's the natural vehicle for the left-liberal anti-clinton protest vote

May 21, 2015

I'd be interested to see a D PAC experiment w a positive Obama ad (like the link), see whether that helps Clinton youtube.com/watch?v=F0OVng…

May 20, 2015

@ForecasterEnten wouldn't take this to the bank. Failed post 2012 project

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