I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, demographics, and polling. Northwest expat.

Donald Trump Doesn’t Need Indiana Anymore

nytimes.com — For the last month or so, Donald Trump 's path to 1,237 delegates has been clear: Win Indiana and California. But after his strong showings in the Northeast, Indiana no longer seems to be a must-win state to capture the Republican nomination. Sure, winning the state would be very helpful toward gaining a majority of delegates.

Trump overperforms in nearly every county across states in Tuesday's primaries

startribune.com — After Tuesday night, Donald Trump has never had a wider path to a majority of pledged delegates. He swept the Northeastern corridor by a huge margin, smashing any and all expectations based on primaries to date.

Donald Trump’s Path to the Republican Nomination, Contest by Contest

nytimes.com — With 10 contests remaining, Donald Trump needs about 280 more pledged delegates to become the Republican nominee for president. Here's what he needs to do to pull it off. The estimates below do not necessarily represent what will happen; instead, they provide the most realistic path for Mr. Trump to reach the 1,237 delegates required to win the Republican nomination outright.

Donald Trump Beat Expectations Everywhere, Suggesting a Broad Shift

nytimes.com — After just about every primary night this year, we've written something like " Donald Trump stayed on a narrow but clear path to the Republican nomination." After Tuesday night, Mr. Trump has never had a wider path to a majority of pledged delegates.

Why Donald Trump Is Probably Two States From Victory

nytimes.com — Donald J. Trump is essentially two key states from the nomination. By sweeping five states on Tuesday, he pulled only a few hundred Republican delegates short of the 1,237 he needs to win without a contested convention. He has long been favored in the polls in two of the remaining primary states, New Jersey and West Virginia.

Cruz-Kasich deal means a much better chance to stop Trump

dailygazette.com — Here's an overlooked fact about the Republican race: Right now, all of the polls are consistent with a finish of 1,237 or more pledged delegates for Donald Trump and an outright nomination victory, without a contested convention.

Cruz-Kasich Deal Means a Much Better Chance to Stop Trump

nytimes.com — Here's an overlooked fact about the Republican race: Right now, all of the polls are consistent with a finish of 1,237 or more pledged delegates for Donald Trump and an outright nomination victory, without a contested convention.

The Voting Effect of Virginia’s Move on Felons? Surprisingly Small

nytimes.com — There was considerable fretting - or satisfaction - over Gov. T erry McAuliffe's decision Friday to re-enfranchise 200,000 ex-felons in Virginia. The state will be one of the central battlegrounds this November, and it's widely believed that ex-felons will vote heavily for Democrats. (More than half are African-Americans, a big voting bloc for the party.)

Haiyan Isn't As Large As United States

newrepublic.com — A map showing Super Typhoon Haiyan superimposed over the continental United States has gone viral. It's all wrong.Here's the image, supposedly (actually?) created by the Red Cross:Now, here's the Philippines over the United States:And here's Haiyan with respect to the Philippines:So Haiyan was large, but it was not even CLOSE to the size of the United States.

How Donald Trump Could Win the Nomination Outright

nytimes.com — After a forceful win in New York, Donald Trump has a narrow but real path to 1,237 delegates, the number required to avoid a contested convention. Mr. Trump needs about 388 more delegates to become the Republican presidential nominee. Here's one way he could get them.
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Apr 28, 2016

@JakeLaperruque these are upcoming primary states, not general election states

Apr 28, 2016

Hm. Are they really anti-Trump ads? Or are they Akin-ing? twitter.com/gdebenedetti/s…

Apr 28, 2016

National polls have shown Trump increasing and Cruz/Kasich dropping over the last month pic.twitter.com/sdlOs33g5z

Apr 28, 2016

@wccubbison maybe. otoh, ohio is only weird for clinton strength, not uncommitted


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