I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, demographics, and polling. Pacific Northwest expat.

Why the Cuba Issue No Longer Cuts Against Democrats in Florida

nytimes.com — The importance of small demographic groups is often overstated by political commentators. The Cuban-American vote is an exception. Cuban-Americans represent a meaningful number of voters in a battleground state, Florida, that may be critical in the 2016 presidential election.

Why Even a Good Midterm Turnout for Democrats in North Carolina Fell Short

nytimes.com — There aren't many places where low turnout among young and nonwhite voters hurts Democrats more than in North Carolina, a state newly competitive in presidential elections because of rapid generational and demographic changes over the last decade. Yet nowhere did a Democratic senator lose a closer race in the midterms last month.

Obama’s Immigration Move Benefits Democrats Where It Counts

nytimes.com — A month after President Obama's decision to defer deportation and offer work authorization to millions of undocumented immigrants, his action does not just look like a winner, but also a fairly promising sign for Democrats after the disastrous midterm elections last month. This is not because Mr. Obama's immigration decision has proved to be popular.

Demise of the Southern Democrat Is Now Nearly Complete

nytimes.com — After President Lyndon Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964, he reportedly told a fellow Democrat that the party had lost the South for a long time to come. It took more than a generation for old Southern loyalties to the Democrats to fade, but that vision is on the verge of being realized this weekend.

Sharing Polling Numbers on Twitter: Decoding a Mystery

nytimes.com — Perhaps the most bizarre electoral news since the midterms is the allegation that Republican operatives and outside groups used clandestine Twitter accounts to share polling data. The Twitter accounts, which had no followers, tweeted polling results for House races in what might have been an effort to circumvent laws that preclude coordination between parties and outside groups.

Hispanic Voters Are Important for Republicans, but Not Indispensable

nytimes.com — President Obama 's plan to defer deportation and grant work permits for up to five million undocumented migrants is having two utterly predictable results: outrage from congressional Republicans, and speculation about how the politics will play in 2016. The country's growing Hispanic population was widely credited with tipping Mr. Obama's re-election in 2012.

Why Voter ID Laws Don’t Swing Many Elections

nytimes.com — Many people have understandably blamed low turnout for the Democratic Party's misfortune on Nov. 4, but some have gone a step further. They argue that turnout was so low because of voter suppression, particularly laws requiring voters to present photo identification.

Keystone Vote Unlikely to Change Odds for Mary Landrieu

nytimes.com — It is not much exaggeration to suggest that there's one real reason that the Senate voted on whether to advance the Keystone pipeline: Senator Mary L. Landrieu. Ms. Landrieu, a Democrat from Louisiana, faces a runoff election on Dec. 6, after failing to win the 50 percent necessary to win her re-election bid outright on Nov.

Evaluating the Success of Democratic Get-Out-the-Vote Efforts

nytimes.com — The Democrats invested millions of dollars in a vaunted field operation to mobilize the young and nonwhite voters who do not usually participate in midterm elections. Yet it was not enough to save Democrats from a Republican landslide.

From The Upshot: A Look at the Next Big Election

nytimes.com — Enthusiasm for President Obama brought out younger and nonwhite voters in 2008 and 2012, but demographic changes are set to have the same effect.
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Dec 20, 2014

RT @jdavidgoodman: The suspect may have come to Brooklyn from Baltimore, where he may have been involved in a murder, officials say. More TK

Dec 20, 2014

The person next to me on this flight--who has fought with me over the arm rest for 5 hours--is taking a yougov survey

Dec 19, 2014

RT @UpshotNYT: Here is the Colbert Report finale. David Leonhardt, editor of The Upshot among the Panoply of Somebodies, at 4:55 nyti.ms/1x4SIOE

Dec 19, 2014

Black share of the electorate in the Louisiana runoff nearly matched 2012-levels, surpassed 2008 pic.twitter.com/3RjAGC1Hzi

Dec 19, 2014

Black share of electorate nearly matches 2012 in Louisiana runoff pic.twitter.com/eyNfLSFdT1

Dec 19, 2014

Black turnout in Georgia rose to 28.7 percent of the electorate, up from 28.3 in 2010.

Dec 19, 2014

White share of the electorate in Georgia drops to 63.5 percent in 2014, down from 66.3 in 2010 pic.twitter.com/ZtVBxI9RPD

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