I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, demographics, and polling. Northwest expat.

How to Read the Ups and Downs of Polling in the G.O.P. Race

nytimes.com — The polling roller coaster, as FiveThirtyEight's Harry Enten put it, has begun. One week the headline is " Ted Cruz Surging in Polls." Three weeks later, it's " Marco Rubio Surges to Front of G.O.P. Pack."

Mike Huckabee Would Be a More Important Candidate Than You Might Think

nytimes.com — The most important name that you haven't heard much about in the Republican primary race is nonetheless a familiar one: Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor who took the pageantry of presidential announcements to a nearly parodic level on Friday by appearing on national television to announce that he would announce whether he would run on May 5.

Big Money From Super PACs Is Eroding the Power of Parties

nytimes.com — Six months ago, I would have told you that April 15, the date when campaigns report their first-quarter fund-raising tallies, could be one of the most interesting early milestones of the Republican primary season. I think I even told my boss, admittedly with hyperbole, that the Q1 report of a year preceding a presidential election was the most important fund-raising report in American politics.

Marco Rubio Is Talented, but Out of Position

nytimes.com — Marco Rubio, who announced his bid for the presidency on Monday in a calll to donors, has been called the "best communicator" in the Republican Party. Over and over and over again. But he has little to show for it. He enters the fray with surprisingly low support.

Hillary Clinton Doesn’t Need a Primary Fight

nytimes.com — Hillary Clinton has a better chance of winning her party's nomination without a serious contest than any nonincumbent in the modern era. If that happens, she will be lucky to avoid the fight. Most of the concerns about an unopposed Clinton candidacy are overstated, and there are big reasons she will benefit from running unopposed in the presidential primary.

Clinton looks like shoo-in - in primary

dispatch.com — In the modern era, every major-party nominee who was not a sitting president has faced a primary fight. All except Al Gore, a sitting vice president, lost at least one state - and Gore came within 4 percentage points of losing the crucial early state of New Hampshire.

Huge Head Start for Clinton, but the Big Race Is Far From Won

nytimes.com — In the modern era, every major-party nominee who was not a sitting president has faced a primary fight. All except Al Gore, a sitting vice president, lost at least one state - and Mr. Gore came within four percentage points of losing the crucial early state of New Hampshire.

Poll: Democrats retain party-identification advantage

dispatch.com — The party identification of U.S. voters was one of the most hotly debated topics among analysts before the 2012 presidential election. Many Republicans thought there were roughly equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans, and they doubted polls showing President Barack Obama had the lead. In the end, the polls were right.

Democrats Keep Lead in Party Identification

nytimes.com — The party identification of American voters was one of the most hotly debated topics among analysts before the 2012 presidential election. Many Republicans thought there were roughly equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans, and so doubted polls showing President Obama with the lead. In the end, the polls were right.

The G.O.P. Presidential Field Looks Chaotic. It’s Not.

nytimes.com — The Republican primary battle has been called a wide-open contest - the " deepest" and " strongest" field in many cycles. It is full of the party's rising stars and hopefuls, like Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz and Bobby Jindal, alongside the most formidable name in Republican politics: Bush.
More Articles →
Apr 27, 2015

RT @nickconfessore: Walker shooting to raise $25m+ for super PAC by end of June, on top of $5m already in his 527. w/@patrickhealynyt nyti.ms/1HOXQej

Apr 27, 2015

@ed_kilgore @jbview my point is that whenever people say that, they're talking about the horse race numbers

Apr 27, 2015

@ed_kilgore @jbview haven't seen the piece you're concerned about: lazy pundit who says ignore sophisticated internals-based analysis

Apr 27, 2015

@jbview @ed_kilgore you don't think Christies favs tell us something?

Apr 27, 2015

@ed_kilgore idk. I think they're only relevant in so far as the ? About cand = numbers. I don't care what Paul's favs are.

Apr 27, 2015

@ed_kilgore I think we're in a spot where non quantitative evidence and a strong analytical framework is more useful

Apr 27, 2015

@ed_kilgore I think you have to read the tea leaves on the reporting, for better or worse

Apr 27, 2015

@ed_kilgore and i think my piece is clearly about horse race numbers. I think favs can tell us things

Apr 27, 2015

@ed_kilgore I wrote like 4000 words last month without citing a horse race poll

Apr 27, 2015

@ed_kilgore and same w walker. I'd feel same about him if he were at 5

Email Nate by joining Muck Rack Pro



Are You a Journalist?

Make a Portfolio

Create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile and upload a portfolio of your best work.


Share This Profile