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Correspondent — New York Times
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I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, demographics, and polling. Pacific Northwest expat.

Early Voting Offers No Proof That Democrats Have Improved Turnout Effort

nytimes.com — Early voting is underway in Nevada, and the numbers look bad for Democrats. Republicans and Democrats have voted in nearly equal numbers in Clark County, home to Las Vegas, where Democrats have a 13-point registration advantage. Only 10,000 voters have turned out, compared with 17,000 who turned out on the first day of 2010.

Not Following the Midterms? You’re Missing All the Fun

nytimes.com — I have a confession: I think this is a great election. It's way better than 2012. All around, it might be the best general election in a decade. There are a dozen competitive and close Senate contests and, for good measure, there are another dozen competitive governors' contests.

Two Polls That Highlight the Challenges of Polling

nytimes.com — On Monday, SurveyUSA did something unusual for a pollster: It released two polls of Colorado voters on the same day Despite the similarity in the overall result - both showed the Republican, Cory Gardner, ahead by a slight margin - the differences in how the polls were conducted reveal the challenges and choices facing pollsters.

Republican-Majority Senate Is Starting to Look Likelier

nytimes.com — President Obama, even in his worst hours after the first presidential debate in 2012, held a consistent lead in Wisconsin, Ohio and Nevada. It was always enough to win re-election, and he had multiple paths to victory if any of those states fell through. "Close but clear" was the refrain.

Unlike 2012 Race, the Midterms Are Close but Unclear

nytimes.com — In the 2012 presidential election, I often came back to a simple refrain: "close but clear." President Obama, even in his darkest hours after the first presidential debate, held a consistent lead in Wisconsin, Ohio and Nevada. It was enough to give him an advantage in states worth 272 electoral votes.

The New York Times

Many Governor’s Races Remain Close, and Democrats Make Gains

nytimes.com — A large number of governor's contests remain close and competitive, according to the newest round of data from The New York Times/CBS News/YouGov online panel of more than 100,000 respondents. There are 11 governor's races within five percentage points, and 16 races within 10 percentage points.

Democrats Having More Trouble Keeping 2012 Voters

nytimes.com — Democrats are struggling to maintain the support and enthusiasm of people who voted for President Obama, according to data from the RAND American Life Panel. Most polls take a random sample of adults, but RAND continuously surveys a panel of thousands of Americans - 75 percent of whom were also on the panel in 2012, when it asked people about how they voted in that year's presidential election.

2014 October 09 - First Draft. Political News, Now. - NYTimes.com

nytimes.com — Good Thursday morning from Washington, where the Islamic State has invaded the election cycle, the Secret Service is beefing up and two presidential prospects are visiting Pennsylvania. With four weeks to go, the election has taken a dark turn as conservatives use warnings about Islamic State militants, the Ebola virus and terrorist acts to send a message: The world is a scary place, and the Democrats can't protect you.

South Dakota Senate Race Suddenly Looks Harder to Predict

nytimes.com — For most of the year, analysts have assumed that the Republicans would pick up three Senate seats where Democratic incumbents were retiring in red states: Montana, West Virginia, and South Dakota. It's time to start questioning that assumption. Mike Rounds, the Republican nominee and a former governor of South Dakota, was thought to be a strong candidate for the state's open seat.
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Oct 20, 2014

@OnTheGoNicole no, that data is in the mail. should have it this week.

Oct 20, 2014

@OnTheGoNicole earlier today. i haven't done a similar comparison between 10/06

Oct 20, 2014

.@OnTheGoNicole by my last download, we're at 171732 votes, 35356 from voters who didn't participate in '10

Oct 20, 2014

@morningmoneyben i think that concern is a bit overblown, but it's clearly a challenge

Oct 20, 2014

@morningmoneyben it will; but even if it came down to 2%, she'd still need to win by 2 to break 50.

Oct 20, 2014

It's going to be amazing to watch people lose it if Nunn finishes with like 49.8%

Oct 20, 2014

@ForecasterEnten @PollsterPatrick given that he's from new jersey, i'd say no. or maybe his staff just didn't tell him

Oct 20, 2014

@sinderbrand @HotlineJosh shouldn't we get an against the grain "obama wants dems to lose" story out of this?!

Oct 20, 2014

RT @FiveThirtyEight: The high school dropout rate for Hispanics has fallen to 14 percent from 32 percent since 2000 53eig.ht/1wQObKW pic.twitter.com/E22imaQubw

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