I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, demographics, and polling. Northwest expat.

Chris Christie’s Path to Relevance

nytimes.com — Chris Christie is highly unlikely to win the nomination. The reasons, like his moderat e-conservative views and the ethics scandal over bridge traffic in New Jersey, have been summarized elsewhere. But many candidates with little or no chance to win the nomination nonetheless play a big role in presidential primaries, and Mr. Christie could be one of them.

No Guarantee That Redistricting Verdict Will Help Democrats

nytimes.com — When the Supreme Court ruled Monday to allow independent redistricting commissions in Arizona, the decision was greeted with enthusiasm from liberals who support redistricting reform. There are certainly principled reasons for liberals to support independent commissions. It might even seem as if there's a practical reason: Independent commissions could conceivably reverse Republican gerrymandering efforts.

Jeb Bush’s surprising struggle to win over moderates

seattletimes.com — The former Florida governor, who entered the GOP presidential race Monday, has been unable to generate elite support, emerge as a favorite in moderate-voting New Hampshire, or match up as well as Scott Walker or Marco Rubio against Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Jeb Bush’s Surprising Struggle With Moderates

nytimes.com — It was easy to see Jeb Bush's path to the Republican nomination when he announced the formation of his super PAC in December. He wasn't guaranteed to pull it off - not by any stretch - but he seemed well positioned to appeal to the coalition of party elites and blue-state voters that has allowed center-right establishment candidates to win the party's last two contests.

Why Florida Remains So Close

newrepublic.com — Four years ago, Obama only carried Florida by 2.8 points while winning by 7.3 points nationally. Since the first presidential debate, pundits have downplayed Obama's chances in the Sunshine State, but recent polls show Obama performing about as well in Florida as he is nationally, suggesting that Obama's standing has remained relatively resilient since 2008.

When Low Turnout Is to a Party’s Benefit

nytimes.com — Equal-population congressional districts help Democrats win with fewer voters. They outperform their share of the popular vote in House elections because they tend to fare best in the districts with large numbers of ineligible voters. But where and by how much?

Court Case Can Put House Further Out of Reach for Democrats

nytimes.com — In 2012, Republicans won a majority of seats in the House even though more people voted for Democratic candidates over all. This is because of structural biases, factors that allow a party to outperform its share of the popular vote.

Polling’s Secrecy Problem

nytimes.com — The debunking of a recent academic paper on changing views about same-sex marriage has raised concerns about whether other political science research is being properly vetted and verified. But the scandal may actually point to vulnerabilities in a different field: public polls.

Número de cristãos nos EUA é o menor já registado

www1.folha.uol.com.br — A proporção de cristãos entre os adultos dos Estados Unidos caiu acentuadamente de 2007 para cá, o que afeta quase todas as grandes tradições e denominações do cristianismo no país e cruza linhas de idade, raça e religião, de acordo com uma extensa pesquisa do Pew Research Center.

Big Drop in Share of Americans Calling Themselves Christian

nytimes.com — The Christian share of adults in the United States has declined sharply since 2007, affecting nearly all major Christian traditions and denominations, and crossing age, race and region, according to an extensive survey by the Pew Research Center.
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Jul 06, 2015

@conorsen i was always partial to generational replacement

Jul 06, 2015

I guess that's not quite right: people who turned 18 in 1969 are younger than Bernie. Their peak year might be 2020 or 2024

Jul 06, 2015

The turnout rate among the hippies and flower children will never be higher than this cycle! Starts to drop as it gets too old!

Jul 06, 2015

One thing that Bernie Sanders has going for him: his coevals are just as old as he is, therefore at prime primary voting particpiation rates

Jul 06, 2015

Sanders would lose decisively, even if he matched Clinton in the invisible primary.

Jul 05, 2015

@ConArtCritic yeah no time frame, and it's not just philly but the whole stte

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