I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, demographics, and polling. Northwest expat.

The Way Ted Cruz Won in Iowa Suggests Trouble Ahead

nytimes.com — Ted Cruz kept his hopes alive with a come-from-behind victory in the Iowa caucuses this week. But the way he won raises serious questions about his chances later on. He won Iowa for one reason: He excelled among people who described themselves as "very conservative."
Feb 05, 2016

The way Cruz won Iowa raises big questions about his ability to build a winning coalition nytimes.com/2016/02/06/ups… pic.twitter.com/C5pxv5kSML

Feb 05, 2016

RT @Nate_Cohn: The way Cruz won Iowa raises big questions about his ability to build a winning coalition nytimes.com/2016/02/06/ups… pic.twitter.com/C5pxv5kSML

Feb 05, 2016

Can @tedcruz win evangelicals in SC the way he did in Iowa? Maybe, maybe not. nytimes.com/2016/02/06/ups… #scpol #sctweets

Feb 05, 2016

This is fascinating re ideological distinctions among evangelicals nytimes.com/2016/02/06/ups…

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Iowa’s Electoral Breakdown and the Democratic Divide

nytimes.com — At first glance, Bernie Sanders's voters in Iowa this week looked a lot like Barack Obama 's from 2008. Both were strongest among young, independent-leaning, liberal men. Yet with the actual results of the Democratic caucuses in and counted, it is clear that Mr. Sanders's coalition is very different.
Feb 04, 2016

RT @nytimes: A key divide between Clinton and Sanders supporters: Income nyti.ms/1X66GsC pic.twitter.com/A7EdeqjHeC

Feb 04, 2016

Surprise! Rich Democrats support Clinton, and working-class Americans support Sanders nytimes.com/2016/02/05/ups… pic.twitter.com/ZDpLhU6bQ6

Feb 04, 2016

Actual line in the NY Times: "Sanders’s weakness among affluent voters is potentially a bad sign for his chances." nytimes.com/2016/02/05/ups…

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Polls Were Way Off on Donald Trump. Here’s What It Means.

nytimes.com — Donald Trump was at the top of each of the last 10 polls in Iowa, but his lead failed to hold up on caucus night Monday. In the end, his seven-point lead in polling averages amounted to a three-point loss to Ted Cruz.
Feb 02, 2016

Polls overestimated Trump by more than any early state candidate in years. It's a bad sign for him elsewhere nyti.ms/1Kof5pn

Feb 02, 2016

RT @Nate_Cohn: Polls overestimated Trump by more than any early state candidate in years. It's a bad sign for him elsewhere nyti.ms/1Kof5pn

Feb 02, 2016

Think you're being safer by throwing together recent polls and averaging? see this > nyti.ms/1Kof5pn

Feb 02, 2016

RT @Nate_Cohn: Polls overestimated Trump by more than any early state candidate in years. It's a bad sign for him elsewhere nyti.ms/1Kof5pn

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Which States Cruz, Trump and Rubio Need to Win

nytimes.com — Iowa's Republican caucus has one of the most conservative electorates in the country, which is a big part of why so many Iowa winners fall short of winning it all. Forty percent of voters on Monday were "very conservative," according to entrance polls; in 2012, there were more "very conservative" voters in Iowa than any primary state.
Feb 02, 2016

This graphic shows which states Cruz, Trump & Rubio need to win @nate_cohn nyti.ms/1nKZcQ4

Feb 02, 2016

Lord have mercy - NYT is now classifying a man who objects abortion in case of incest and rape as "moderate" nytimes.com/interactive/20…

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Why ‘Virtual Tie’ in Iowa Is Better for Clinton Than Sanders

boston.com — (The Upshot: 2016 Race). Bernie Sanders is right: The Iowa Democratic caucuses were a "virtual tie," especially after you consider that the results aren't even actual vote tallies, but state delegate equivalents subject to all kinds of messy rounding rules and potential geographic biases.

Why ‘virtual tie’ in Iowa is better for Clinton than Sanders

timeslive.co.za — The official tally was Hillary Clinton at 49.9 percent, and Sanders at 49.6 percent, with 97 percent of precincts reporting early Tuesday morning. But in the end, a virtual tie in Iowa is an acceptable, if not ideal, result for Clinton and an ominous one for Sanders.

How the ‘Virtual Tie’ in Iowa Helps Hillary Clinton

nytimes.com — Bernie Sanders is right: The Iowa Democratic caucuses were a "virtual tie," especially after you consider that the results aren't even actual vote tallies, but state delegate equivalents subject to all kinds of messy rounding rules and potential geographic biases.
Feb 02, 2016

The "virtual tie" is acceptable for Clinton, and bad news for Sanders nytimes.com/2016/02/02/ups…

Feb 02, 2016

Vox has Bernie’s tie being the biggest story of the night vox.com/2016/2/2/10892… Upshot has it being bad for Bernie nytimes.com/2016/02/02/ups…

Feb 02, 2016

"A virtual tie in Iowa is an acceptable result for Mrs. Clinton & a bad one for Mr. Sanders" Here's why. @Nate_Cohn: nytimes.com/2016/02/02/ups…

Feb 02, 2016

RT @nytimes: How the "virtual tie" in Iowa helps Hillary Clinton nyti.ms/1Spqqsn pic.twitter.com/oouhWPydi9

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How to Understand Donald Trump’s Defeat in Iowa

nytimes.com — For months, mainstream Republicans have hoped that Donald Trump 's support was a mirage - a combination of high name recognition, unsustainable media coverage and support from irregular voters who might not show up in a primary. Tonight, there's reason to believe their hopes just might be well founded.
Feb 01, 2016

RT @UpshotNYT: The person who preaches winning just lost. What now for Donald Trump? Via Nate Cohn, nyti.ms/1SA1CvS

Feb 01, 2016

How to Understand Donald Trump’s Defeat in Iowa (& Cruz and Rubio's results too) @Nate_Cohn: nytimes.com/2016/02/02/ups…

Feb 01, 2016

RT @clairecm: How to Understand Donald Trump’s Defeat in Iowa (& Cruz and Rubio's results too) @Nate_Cohn: nytimes.com/2016/02/02/ups…

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Here's to watch to watch for from the Iowa caucuses tonight

tampabay.com — Voters in Iowa cast the first ballots of the 2016 presidential election in caucuses across the state Monday. Polls show a close race in both Democratic and Republican contests. Hillary Clinton is leading Bernie Sanders by around 3 percentage points, and Donald Trump is ahead of Ted Cruz by a more comfortable 8-point margin.

Iowa Caucuses: what to watch for

smh.com.au — Voters in Iowa cast the first ballots of the 2016 presidential election in caucuses across the state on Monday, US time. Polls show a close race in both Democratic and Republican contests. Hillary Clinton is leading Bernie Sanders by around 3 percentage points, and Donald Trump is ahead of Ted Cruz by a more comfortable 8-point margin.
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Feb 06, 2016

@ForecasterEnten some SOS office is going to do that one day and i'm just going to burn all of them

Feb 06, 2016

but seriously one of the most obnoxious things in the world is when i get data on a CD. wtf

Feb 06, 2016

I'm hearing that Rubio's CD-ROM drive was jammed; kept opening and closing repeatedly when they tried to change disks

Feb 06, 2016

RT @PatrickRuffini: If I'm a NH moderate squish I still have no idea how to vote strategically on Tuesday

Feb 06, 2016

RT @SethGannon: @Nate_Cohn Let's dispense with the fiction that Ben Carson doesn't know what he's doing. Ben Carson knows exactly what he's doing.

Feb 06, 2016

Carson: "I'm still here" ....but why?

Feb 06, 2016

@rpm002 @allahpundit he did better in the follow ons. But his first answer was ISIS=scary


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