I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, demographics, and polling. Pacific Northwest expat.

G.O.P. Wins, but Battlefield Has Changed

nytimes.com — The election that analysts expected over the summer is over, and Republicans won. Now they have to win battles they didn't expect they had to fight. The Republicans look well positioned to flip the Democratic states they figured they would need.

Arkansas, a Demographic Challenge for Democrats

nytimes.com — Arkansas was one of the most reliably Democratic states of the 20th century. It voted for Southern Democrats like Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter by large margins. Al Gore lost the state in 2000, but by only a modest five percentage points.

The Methodology Behind the Upshot’s Estimates of Hispanic Republicans

nytimes.com — To see if Republicans could retain the House without a single Hispanic vote this November, we posed an even tougher question: Did House Republicans need Hispanic voters in 2012? In 2012, Hispanic turnout was higher, and the Republicans finished with fewer seats than they are expected to win this November.

Why House Republicans Alienate Hispanics: They Don’t Need Them

nytimes.com — Political analysts keep urging the Republican Party to do more to appeal to Hispanic voters. Yet the party's congressional leaders show little sign of doing so, blocking an immigration overhaul and harshly criticizing President Obama for his plan to defer deportation for undocumented migrants.

Early Voting Offers No Proof That Democrats Have Improved Turnout Effort

nytimes.com — Early voting is underway in Nevada, and the numbers look bad for Democrats. Republicans and Democrats have voted in nearly equal numbers in Clark County, home to Las Vegas, where Democrats have a 13-point registration advantage. Only 10,000 voters have turned out, compared with 17,000 who turned out on the first day of 2010.

Not Following the Midterms? You’re Missing All the Fun

nytimes.com — I have a confession: I think this is a great election. It's way better than 2012. All around, it might be the best general election in a decade. There are a dozen competitive and close Senate contests and, for good measure, there are another dozen competitive governors' contests.

Two Polls That Highlight the Challenges of Polling

nytimes.com — On Monday, SurveyUSA did something unusual for a pollster: It released two polls of Colorado voters on the same day Despite the similarity in the overall result - both showed the Republican, Cory Gardner, ahead by a slight margin - the differences in how the polls were conducted reveal the challenges and choices facing pollsters.

Republican-Majority Senate Is Starting to Look Likelier

nytimes.com — President Obama, even in his worst hours after the first presidential debate in 2012, held a consistent lead in Wisconsin, Ohio and Nevada. It was always enough to win re-election, and he had multiple paths to victory if any of those states fell through. "Close but clear" was the refrain.

Unlike 2012 Race, the Midterms Are Close but Unclear

nytimes.com — In the 2012 presidential election, I often came back to a simple refrain: "close but clear." President Obama, even in his darkest hours after the first presidential debate, held a consistent lead in Wisconsin, Ohio and Nevada. It was enough to give him an advantage in states worth 272 electoral votes.

The New York Times

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Oct 22, 2014

@pnamerica @forecasterenten @mysterypollster are those modeled numbers or is that self-reported

Oct 22, 2014

@kwcollins i'm aware, but, well, i want to play with it.

Oct 22, 2014

Unless you're conducting a poll for @uselectionatlas, you're just not allowed to do this: pic.twitter.com/e8TLQGnsJ8

Oct 22, 2014

@JoshRovner yeah, although in this case they basically do

Oct 22, 2014

The population of Arkansas' most Democratic county shank by 18 percent since 2000. It's most Rep. county grew 54% nytimes.com/2014/10/23/ups…

Oct 22, 2014

RT @ThePlumLineGS: If Ds don't run up big numbers among *non 2010* voters they will lose no matter what raw overall EV numbers show

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