I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, demographics, and polling. PNW expat/Seaaahhaawwwwksssssss

The Surprising Power of Blue-State Republicans

nytimes.com — There is a basic mystery at the heart of modern Republican presidential politics. The party's voters, despite electing conservatives to the House and Senate, have repeatedly chosen relatively moderate nominees, like Mitt Romney and John McCain, in the primaries.

Will bump in Obama approval matter in ’16?

pics.mcclatchyinteractive.com — President Barack Obama's approval rating has increased to around 46 percent, according to an average of recent polls, up from 42 percent in the weeks after the decisive Republican victory in the midterm elections.

What a Rise in Obama’s Approval Rating Means for 2016

nytimes.com — After a difficult year, President Obama is enjoying a modest rebound ahead of State of the Union address Tuesday. His approval rating has increased to around 46 percent over the last month, according to an average of polls taken over the last month, up from 42 percent in the weeks after the decisive Republican victory in the midterm elections.

Why Romney’s Not the Right Candidate to Challenge Bush From the Right

nytimes.com — On Monday, I wrote an article suggesting that Scott Walker, the Wisconsin governor, could be well positioned to emerge as a main challenger to Jeb Bush by running to Mr. Bush's right. Later that day, The Washington Post reported that Mitt Romney was thinking of taking that very tack.

If Mitt Romney Challenges Jeb Bush, Rand Paul Stands to Gain

nytimes.com — It is still not a sure thing that Mitt Romney will run for president. No losing nominee has done so in decades. But it now seems more likely. The Washington Post reported on Monday that he was reassembling his campaign apparatus, and even told one Republican he "almost certainly will run."

Scott Walker Shows Promise Heading Into 2016

nytimes.com — Jeb Bush had a good month. He struck first in the invisible primary - the behind-the-scenes competition for the support of donors, officials and operatives. And for all of the talk about the depth of the Republican field, the opposition to Mr. Bush remains unclear and underwhelming.

A Closer Look at the Colorado Senate Race

nytimes.com — Colorado was the state that got away from Republicans in 2010 when Michael Bennet, the Democrat, won a come-from-behind victory. Yet if any Republican Senate win in 2014 was symbolic of the completeness of that party's victory on Nov. 4, it was Cory Gardner's in Colorado.

Evidence That the Jim Crow Era Endures for Older Black Voters in the South

nytimes.com — Democrats have lamented low black turnout for decades, but black turnout today rivals that of white voters. That's probably in part because of President Obama, but also because of generational replacement.

Why the Cuba Issue No Longer Cuts Against Democrats in Florida

nytimes.com — The importance of small demographic groups is often overstated by political commentators. The Cuban-American vote is an exception. Cuban-Americans represent a meaningful number of voters in a battleground state, Florida, that may be critical in the 2016 presidential election.

2014 December 17 - First Draft. Political News, Now. - NYTimes.com

nytimes.com — But this year's party on Wednesday had an unexpected twist: As hundreds of Jews were travelling to the White House for the affair, news broke of the release of Alan P. Gross, an American government contractor who had been held in Cuba for five years.
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Jan 31, 2015

@TyRDaniels seems like they are, though I think CO/NV are exceptions

Jan 31, 2015

It's easy to forget about blue-state Republicans, but they're a big part of why the GOP chooses relative moderates nytimes.com/2015/02/01/ups…

Jan 31, 2015

@ForecasterEnten @richardmskinner you could talk me him into being nearly as likely as rubio!

Jan 31, 2015

@ForecasterEnten @richardmskinner I haven't seen evidence many want Rubio, and I don't think alts are unacceptable--which 2nd choices need

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