I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, demographics, and polling. Northwest expat.

Scott Walker’s Electoral Record Is Less Impressive Than It Looks

nytimes.com — Gov. Scott Walker is the rare favorite of conservatives who emphasizes electability. He won three contests in four years in Wisconsin, which hasn't voted for the Republican candidate in a presidential election since 1984. He did so without compromising on the Republican Party's core principles; instead, he prevailed in a high-profile fight with organized labor.

A Fumble and Some Punts: Attention Turns to Scott Walker the Campaigner

nytimes.com — Perhaps the most important question in the Republican presidential primary is whether Scott Walker, the Wisconsin governor, is a capable presidential candidate. On paper, he is nearly perfect, a conservative hero who fought organized labor and won, who triumphed over a labor-led recall effort and wound up winning a blue state three times in four years.

Fading Christie Is Giving Bush Stronger Grip on G.O.P.’s Center

nytimes.com — Chris Christie's presidential ambitions are in a lot of trouble. First he squandered his initial strength in national polls - he holds 6 to 7 percent of the vote among Republican contenders, down from about 20 percent before the scandal involving the closing of lanes to the George Washington Bridge.

Hillary Clinton and Inevitability: This Time Is Different

nytimes.com — Whenever I mention that Hillary Clinton is an overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination - and would be even if Senator Elizabeth Warren ran - the conversation usually comes back to 2008. "She was supposed to be inevitable last time," the refrain goes, "and she lost." I get it.

The Mystery of Lower Voter Registration Rates of Older Black Voters

nytimes.com — Last month, I wrote an article titled " Evidence That the Jim Crow Era Endures for Older Black Voters in the South." The article, based on voter registration and census data in Georgia, noted that older black voters who reached voting age before the passage of the Voting Rights Act were significantly less likely to be registered to vote compared with whites of similar age and black voters who reached voting age in the years afterward.

The Parent Agenda, the Emerging Democratic Focus

nytimes.com — Just a few years ago, one could be forgiven for wondering whether the liberal agenda had run its course. With near-universal health care - the unfinished business of the 20th-century Democratic Party - enacted, there was no obvious next step in the party's mission of expanding the safety net.

Alabama, Where Same-Sex Marriage Remains Deeply Unpopular

nytimes.com — Public opinion surveys show that a majority of adults - and a growing one - now supports same-sex marriage. But the rapid change in public opinion may obscure another fact: Large areas of the country remain overwhelmingly opposed to same-sex marriage, with little sign of change.

Jeb Bush, Evangelicals and the Pandering Question

nytimes.com — Jeb Bush, the early establishment favorite for the Republican nomination, has suggested that he doesn't want to have to pander to the party's base to win the nomination. He's probably going to need to.

The Tough Path Facing Chris Christie and Marco Rubio

nytimes.com — The end of Mitt Romney's candidacy has brought the so-called invisible primary - the behind-the-scenes competition for the resources and credibility needed to win the nomination - into a new phase, with new players. Marco Rubio and Chris Christie, in particular, seem as if they might benefit.

The Surprising Power of Blue-State Republicans

nytimes.com — There is a basic mystery at the heart of modern Republican presidential politics. The party's voters, despite electing conservatives to the House and Senate, have repeatedly chosen relatively moderate nominees, like Mitt Romney and John McCain, in the primaries.
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Mar 06, 2015

@RossRichendrfer i thought htis might be a christ aylor reference

Mar 06, 2015

@Hokolaben i don't think that's the argument--just that his performance isn't exceptional

Mar 05, 2015

@Taniel i basically take your point, but sensible people anticipated the deterioration of clinton's support post-state

Mar 05, 2015

RT @nickconfessore: While we're having an important and well-founded conversation about public records: why is congress exempt from FOIA?

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