I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, demographics, and polling. Northwest expat.

Why Ted Cruz Is Such a Long Shot

nytimes.com — In nearly every presidential primary, a few candidates attract a lot of news media attention even though they have almost no chance to win the nomination. Sometimes they even lead national polls or win states, but invariably their appeal is too narrow to allow them to build the broad coalition necessary to unite a diverse party.

Elizabeth Warren Is No Barack Obama

nytimes.com — Hillary Clinton has already emerged as the "inevitable" Democratic nominee, a title she aspired to, but could never claim, eight years ago. The closest rival she has this time is Elizabeth Warren - who is no Barack Obama. Ms. Warren, a senator from Massachusetts, is most likely not going to run.

Hillary Clinton Is More Vulnerable in 2016 Than You Think

nytimes.com — Hillary Clinton is a primary candidate whose strength has little precedent, one who seems poised to sweep the primaries without facing any serious challenge. The general election is a different story. Mrs. Clinton would not cruise to victory, and, yes, she could easily lose.

Scott Walker’s Electoral Record Is Less Impressive Than It Looks

nytimes.com — Gov. Scott Walker is the rare favorite of conservatives who emphasizes electability. He won three contests in four years in Wisconsin, which hasn't voted for the Republican candidate in a presidential election since 1984. He did so without compromising on the Republican Party's core principles; instead, he prevailed in a high-profile fight with organized labor.

A Fumble and Some Punts: Attention Turns to Scott Walker the Campaigner

nytimes.com — Perhaps the most important question in the Republican presidential primary is whether Scott Walker, the Wisconsin governor, is a capable presidential candidate. On paper, he is nearly perfect, a conservative hero who fought organized labor and won, who triumphed over a labor-led recall effort and wound up winning a blue state three times in four years.

Fading Christie Is Giving Bush Stronger Grip on G.O.P.’s Center

nytimes.com — Chris Christie's presidential ambitions are in a lot of trouble. First he squandered his initial strength in national polls - he holds 6 to 7 percent of the vote among Republican contenders, down from about 20 percent before the scandal involving the closing of lanes to the George Washington Bridge.

Hillary Clinton and Inevitability: This Time Is Different

nytimes.com — Whenever I mention that Hillary Clinton is an overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination - and would be even if Senator Elizabeth Warren ran - the conversation usually comes back to 2008. "She was supposed to be inevitable last time," the refrain goes, "and she lost." I get it.

The Mystery of Lower Voter Registration Rates of Older Black Voters

nytimes.com — Last month, I wrote an article titled " Evidence That the Jim Crow Era Endures for Older Black Voters in the South." The article, based on voter registration and census data in Georgia, noted that older black voters who reached voting age before the passage of the Voting Rights Act were significantly less likely to be registered to vote compared with whites of similar age and black voters who reached voting age in the years afterward.

The Parent Agenda, the Emerging Democratic Focus

nytimes.com — Just a few years ago, one could be forgiven for wondering whether the liberal agenda had run its course. With near-universal health care - the unfinished business of the 20th-century Democratic Party - enacted, there was no obvious next step in the party's mission of expanding the safety net.

Alabama, Where Same-Sex Marriage Remains Deeply Unpopular

nytimes.com — Public opinion surveys show that a majority of adults - and a growing one - now supports same-sex marriage. But the rapid change in public opinion may obscure another fact: Large areas of the country remain overwhelmingly opposed to same-sex marriage, with little sign of change.
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Apr 01, 2015

I guess I should say snow coverage, not pack

Apr 01, 2015

@xenocryptsite sure, but, if you assume that obama, the incumbent, is dominant factor, then it lines up well

Apr 01, 2015

@xenocryptsite i don't know why i'm playing devils advocate. i basically agree, but i don't know it's irrelevant

Apr 01, 2015

@xenocryptsite maybe it did. outside of where obama had profound problems with traditionally D white southerners, R was pretty bad

Apr 01, 2015

@xenocryptsite @conorsen in obama's case it probably did foreshadow the profound challenges he would have in the traditionally D white south

Apr 01, 2015

@conorsen certainly, in part because the field's strong

Apr 01, 2015

The Republicans can only win if they hold 30% of nonwhite voters #aprilfools

Mar 31, 2015

@NolteNC it's not just questions, it's also an argument

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