I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, demographics, and polling. Pacific Northwest expat.

Why Polls Tend to Undercount Democrats

nytimes.com — Polls show that the Republicans have an advantage in the fight for control of the Senate. They lead in enough states to win control, and they have additional opportunities in North Carolina and New Hampshire to make up for potential upsets. As Election Day nears, Democratic hopes increasingly hinge on the possibility that the polls will simply prove wrong.

From The Upshot: The Pews and the Polls

nytimes.com — The data shows that black churches still play a significant role in getting black voters to the polls.

Data From Sunday Points to Black Churches’ Role in Mobilizing Voters

nytimes.com — Early voting on Sundays has been one of the biggest fronts in the voting wars of recent years. Some of this past Sunday's early voting numbers make the reason quite clear.

From The Upshot: Shifts in Colorado and Alaska

nytimes.com — Our colleague Nate Cohn found some interesting changes in two key Senate races. In Colorado, turnout challenges for Democrats could shift the race in a big way. Although the example of Michael Bennet's unlikely election in 2010 looms large in this race, the two situations are quite different.

Mark Udall Faces a Turnout Challenge in Colorado

nytimes.com — Perhaps no campaign figures more prominently in the pantheon of modern political mythology than Senator Michael Bennet's election in 2010. Mr. Bennet, a Democrat, won a come-from-behind victory in Colorado after trailing in just about every poll of the final weeks of the race. It is hard to overstate the lore surrounding the Bennet campaign.

Latest Alaska Polls Show Surprising Shift Toward Mark Begich

nytimes.com — Kansas, Georgia, South Dakota. We have cycled through a lot of wild-card red states over the last month in surveying the landscape of competitive Senate races. But the most likely wild card might be the one we always expected: Alaska. Recent polls suggest that Mark Begich, the Democratic senator, has made gains over recent weeks.

From The Upshot: Checking In on Georgia

nytimes.com — A closer look at recent polls - the same ones showing Michelle Nunn making gains - raises the possibility that she hasn't won any new voters at all.

The Reason the Georgia Race Has Become a Dead Heat

nytimes.com — One of the most startling developments in the fight for the Senate this year is that Michelle Nunn, the Democratic candidate in Georgia, has closed the gap with the Republican David Perdue. Her gains came after it was revealed that Mr. Perdue, a business executive, said in a deposition in 2005 that he was proud of his record of outsourcing.

Democrats Seem Poised to Pick Up a Few Governor’s Seats

nytimes.com — Many of the governor's races remain exceedingly close, according to the latest round of data from The New York Times/CBS News/YouGov online panel of more than 80,000 respondents. The data shows that there are 11 contests within 4 percentage points; another half-dozen races are with 10 percentage points.

A Republican Edge, With More Stability

nytimes.com — The Republicans still hold an edge in what has become a very stable fight for the Senate, according to the last round of data from the New York Times/CBS News/YouGov survey of more than 80,000 respondents.
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Oct 29, 2014

RT @mellymelheat: Hey @dccc not a great time to run a phone poll in Kansas City.

Oct 29, 2014

@jon_m_rob @ElectProject the way things were = read.xls into R, but it's no longer working on any reasonable timeframe / crashing

Oct 29, 2014

@ElectProject @jon_m_rob that's what i did yesterday, but i had hopes things could just go back to the way things were

Oct 29, 2014

@ElectProject @jon_m_rob I am literally swirling around in my chair awaiting the same thing

Oct 29, 2014

@TomLavinNH i don't really see the analogy to it, other than being Georgia and fairly close

Oct 29, 2014

@mattmfm @ForecasterEnten little concerning that they didn't give party reg for whole lv universe, imo

Oct 29, 2014

A little weird that this Sullivan poll released party reg for the early vote but not overall sample.

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