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Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight

Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise ( Sports/politics/food geek.

Week 15 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds — Remember the Seattle Seahawks? For all 137.6 decibels of noise at CenturyLink Field, they've been relatively quiet this year. The Seahawks have been one of the most consistent teams in the NFL, rarely blowing anybody out and rarely getting blown out. Seattle's 24-14 win in Philadelphia on Sunday was typical of its season.

College Football Playoff: Final Thoughts And National Championship Odds — The field for the first-ever college football playoff was announced Sunday, and Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Ohio State have made it - leaving out TCU and Baylor. A quick reflection on the teams the committee chose in a moment; first, let's look forward to the playoff.

FiveThirtyEight’s Final College Football Playoff Forecast — We ran the FiveThirtyEight college football playoff model in the early hours of Sunday, after Ohio State and Florida State won their conference championship games. It found there is some actual drama in how the teams might be ranked by the selection committee later Sunday.

College Football Playoff Update: Does Ohio State Have A Shot? — As of early Saturday evening, the college football playoff picture seemed reasonably straightforward. Alabama and Oregon won their conference championships easily. And TCU's dominant win over Iowa State would seemingly make it hard for the committee to drop a team they'd ranked No. 3 previously out of the four-team playoff entirely.

College Football Playoff Update: Three Teams Are Fighting For The Last Spot — So far, college football's selection weekend has been anticlimactic. Alabama's wire-to-wire win against Missouri in the SEC Championship will assure it a place in the college football playoff. It will be joined by Oregon, which thrashed Arizona on Friday, and very likely by TCU, which won earlier on Saturday.

College Football Playoff Update: Is TCU A Lock? — TCU was ranked No. 3 in the college football playoff selection committee's rankings entering the weekend, and as expected, it demolished Iowa State on Saturday afternoon. But the enormous margin of victory - 55-3 - isn't quite as impressive considering the meager quality of the opposition (Iowa State finished its season 2-10).

College Football Playoff Update: Oregon Makes A Case For No. 1 — College football fans aren't habituated to the rhythm of a playoff - at least not in the same way college basketball fans are before the NCAA tournament. But the games Saturday and the selection committee's choices Sunday will determine the four teams that enter the first-ever college football playoff.

NFL Week 14 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds — On Sunday, the Green Bay Packers beat the New England Patriots, who had entered Week 13 ranked first in FiveThirtyEight's NFL Elo ratings. They got there by defeating the previous No. 1, the Denver Broncos, in Week 9. But unlike the Patriots, the Packers didn't move into the No. 1 position.

Which City Has The Most Unpredictable Weather? — Most every American has some basis to complain about unpredictable weather. As a mid-latitude country with shining seas and majestic mountain ranges and fruited, wind-swept plains, we're subject to pretty much every type of weather meteorologists have thought to identify. So perhaps you've heard the line: "If you don't like the weather in Chicago, wait five minutes."

College Football Playoff Update: TCU Promotion Shakes Up Odds — Sure, the college football playoff selection committee could change its mind at the last minute. Maybe it will decide Baylor deserves to rank ahead of TCU because Baylor won their head-to-head matchup. Maybe the committee will suddenly develop a fondness for Florida State, a team it has liked less than voters in the Coaches and AP polls.
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Dec 18, 2014

RT @BCAppelbaum: My thoughts today are with all of you who are paid to explain the stock market’s daily movements.

Dec 18, 2014

FiveThirtyEight will be expanding and hiring for 6-8 positions as we enter the new year. Please reach out to us if you could be a fit!

Dec 18, 2014

We're sad to lose Mike Wilson (@mWilstory), but proud and thrilled that a 538 alum will become editor of the Dallas Morning News!

Dec 18, 2014

@mWilstory @FiveThirtyEight: Thanks, Mike. We loved working with you and you're going to kick ass in Dallas.

Dec 18, 2014

On the flip side, the Pelicans project to be one of the 2-3 best teams in the league within a couple years.

Dec 18, 2014

The Knicks are at least better off than the 76ers, who have a 2% chance. Tanking doesn't pay.

Dec 18, 2014

The Knicks have a 3% chance of winning a championship. By 2019.

Dec 18, 2014

RT @bencasselman: When it comes to oil, the conventional wisdom is almost always wrong.

Dec 17, 2014

RT @DinoStraciatela: @NateSilver538 Might be noise but Sony Market Cap down $2bn since the leaks & down $300mm in after hours NYSE trading.

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