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Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight
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Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV). Sports/politics/food geek.

Why Did A Rasmussen Reports Poll Disappear?

fivethirtyeight.com — Have you ever seen a poll disappear? Over the past few years, we've seen a pollster revise a survey once it was made public and another re-poll a race after it claimed there was a "skew" in the respondents.

The Democrats’ Path Of Last Resort Is Georgia

fivethirtyeight.com — The numbers are the numbers. There's nothing sacred about 51 percent or 72 percent or 95 percent. But certain probabilities, I've found, are harder to translate into the right words. For most of 2014, Republicans' probability of taking over the Senate has been somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast.

Rage Against The Machines

fivethirtyeight.com — This is an excerpted chapter from "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't" by Nate Silver, editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. The book was published in September 2012 by Penguin Press, and this chapter was the inspiration for "The Man vs.

NFL Week 8 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds

fivethirtyeight.com — The Denver Broncos, who moved into the top slot in our Elo ratings last week, widened their advantage over the rest of the league in Week 7. Denver looked dominant in beating the San Francisco 49ers, who had been the No. 3 Elo team. The No.

Gareth Cook, Nate Silver: 9780547974514: Amazon.com: Books

amazon.com — The Best American Infographics 2014 [Gareth Cook, Nate Silver] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. Year two of this fresh, timely, beautiful addition to the Best American series, introduced by Nate Silver The rise of infographics across virtually all print and electronic media reveals patterns in our lives and worlds in fresh and surprising ways.

Why An Ebola Flight Ban Wouldn’t Work

fivethirtyeight.com — On Sept. 19, Thomas Eric Duncan boarded a flight in Monrovia, Liberia, possibly after having lied on a screening questionnaire about his contact with persons carrying the Ebola virus. The next day, Duncan arrived in Dallas to visit his fiancée and son.

Senate Fundraising Totals Are A Bad Sign For Democrats

fivethirtyeight.com — Among the most hopeful signs for Democrats this year have been the strong fundraising totals for their Senate candidates. Through June 30, the Democratic incumbent Mark Udall of Colorado had raised $7.9 million in individual contributions to $3.2 million for his Republican opponent, Cory Gardner.

NFL Week 7 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds

fivethirtyeight.com — The Seattle Seahawks, No. 1 in our NFL Elo ratings since the start of the season, have relinquished that position after losing 30-23 at home against the Dallas Cowboys. The new Elo No. 1 probably won't cause much controversy: It's the Denver Broncos, who are also the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl and the top-rated team in ESPN's panel of experts.

The Polls Might Be Skewed Against Democrats - Or Republicans

fivethirtyeight.com — This year's Senate election is close. Republicans have the clearer path to a majority, but it's a treacherous one. Republicans are favored in Iowa and Colorado, for example, but not by much. If Democrats eked out victories in those states and picked up the seat in Kansas (by persuading independent Greg Orman to caucus with them), they could control 50 Senate seats and keep their majority.

Senate Update: The Clock Is Ticking

fivethirtyeight.com — New Hampshire's polling has been strange. Among polls released since Labor Day, eight have shown Democratic incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen ahead by at least 5 percentage points. Three others - including a New England College poll released on Tuesday - have shown narrow leads for Republican Scott Brown.
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Oct 24, 2014

RT @andrewflowers: How prepared is NYC for an Ebola outbreak? CDC data on big cities' preparedness: NYC does well 53eig.ht/1sYRSxM pic.twitter.com/eNMQveuAjf

Oct 24, 2014

RT @RitchieSKing: Did Deep Blue beat Kasparaov with the help of a computer bug? Check out our first short film: #ManVsMachine 53eig.ht/ManVsMachine

Oct 24, 2014

Democrats' chances in Georgia have improved from slim to Nunn (she's now slightly favored in our forecast): fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/s…

Oct 24, 2014

RT @CarlBialik: Ebola quarantine period is 21 days, but 0.1-12% of cases might develop later. Or the underlying data may be wrong. 53eig.ht/1z3G4PQ

Oct 23, 2014

RT @nickbilton: There are more experts on CNN right now talking about Ebola in America than people with ebola in America. pic.twitter.com/lRNMDzZMjr

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