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Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight

Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (amzn.to/QdyFYV). Sports/politics/food geek.

FiveThirtyEight’s College Football Playoff Forecast

fivethirtyeight.com — Which teams are most likely to make college football's first-ever four-team playoff? And which have the best chance of coming away with the national title? The quick answer is the obvious one: The Alabama Crimson Tide lead the way on both counts. They're No. 1 in the playoff selection committee's current rankings and No.

Can Alabama Afford To Lose?

fivethirtyeight.com — Last Saturday, the Mississippi State Bulldogs - ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll, the Coaches Poll and the College Football Playoff committee's rankings - lost to the Alabama Crimson Tide 25-20. The loss ruined the Bulldogs' quest for their first undefeated season since 1940, when they went 10-0-1.

Here’s Proof Some Pollsters Are Putting A Thumb On The Scale

fivethirtyeight.com — It's time to stop worrying about outliers and start worrying about inliers. Earlier this year, my colleague Harry Enten documented evidence of pollster "herding" - the tendency of polling firms to produce results that closely match one another, especially toward the end of a campaign. What's wrong with the polls agreeing with one another?

Week 11 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds

fivethirtyeight.com — Who's the best team in the NFL? The answer is as muddled as at any point in the season. According to our Elo ratings, the answer is technically the New England Patriots, who overtook the Denver Broncos after beating them in Week 9.

The NFL Should Expand To London. But First: Canada, Mexico And LA.

fivethirtyeight.com — It might seem like a matter of time before the NFL and London stop flirting and start going steady. Six NFL teams have flown across the Atlantic to play a football game this year - most recently, the Dallas Cowboys and Jacksonville Jaguars, who squared off on Sunday in the third and final London game of the season.

Why Polls Missed A Shocker In Virginia’s Senate Race

fivethirtyeight.com — Projections from early exit polls have a well-deserved reputation for being dubious - just ask President John Kerry. But early Tuesday evening, they suggested a potentially shocking outcome in Virginia. Ed Gillespie, the Republican U.S. Senate candidate, was in an extremely close race against Democratic incumbent Mark Warner, who had led by about 9 percentage points in pre-election surveys.

The Polls Were Skewed Toward Democrats

fivethirtyeight.com — For much of this election cycle, Democrats complained the polls were biased against them. They said the polls were failing to represent enough minority voters and applying overly restrictive likely-voter screens. They claimed early-voting data was proving the polls wrong. They cited the fact that polls were biased against Democrats in 2012.

Five Scenarios For The Senate Election

fivethirtyeight.com — It's a cliché: Every seat matters. But that's especially true in this year's Senate election. A very close result - 50-50 for Democrats, or 51-49 for Republicans - could be reversed later on in the event a senator switches parties or relinquishes his seat and triggers a special election.

Final Update: Republicans Have A 3 In 4 Chance Of Winning The Senate

fivethirtyeight.com — After two months of forecasting, it comes down to this: Republicans are favored to win the Senate. Their chances of doing so are 76 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight's Senate forecast, which is principally based on an analysis of the polls in each state and the historical accuracy of Senate polling.

Democrats Need Chaos

fivethirtyeight.com — Democrats are down to about a 25 percent chance to retain the Senate, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight forecast. A 25 percent chance isn't nothing. The average National League hitter hit about .250 last year. But what would a Democratic Senate win look like? Harry Enten and I pondered that question earlier.
More Articles →
Nov 22, 2014

RT @FiveThirtyEight: More undocumented immigrants left the U.S. in the past 6 years, voluntarily or through deportation, than arrived. 53eig.ht/152QVxd

Nov 22, 2014

RT @TimHarford: According to the person who publishes much of the top research in financial economics, most of it is wrong: timharford.com/2014/11/financ…

Nov 21, 2014

RT @lexinyt: This @Grantland33 piece is the best thing I've read about the meaning and significance of the Cosby story grantland.com/hollywood-pros…

Nov 21, 2014

What if Alabama loses to Western Carolina? It won't happen. But they'll be at about 50% if they lose to Auburn next week, per the model.

Nov 21, 2014

Our CFB playoff model will have FSU's playoff odds at just ~15% if they lose tomorrow. Oregon at 30% if they lose. 53eig.ht/1xzpDJx

Nov 21, 2014

RT @FiveThirtyEight: A Georgia O'Keeffe painting just sold for $44.4 million, narrowing the gender gap in art sales 53eig.ht/14Y95Al pic.twitter.com/GPmzDfq2Ub

Nov 21, 2014

Ole Miss, Georgia and UCLA still have playoff possibilities despite their 2 losses. Not Sparty though. 53eig.ht/1xzpDJx

Nov 21, 2014

This weekend may be pretty calm. But it gets crazy once you work through all permutations. 53eig.ht/1xzpDJx pic.twitter.com/TAfnuUj9C6

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