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Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight

Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise ( Sports/politics/food geek.

How History Judges The Oscars’ Closest Calls — I'd love to tell you that the Oscars get the close calls wrong - that when the Academy spurns one credible best picture nominee for another, it errs on the side of the shlocky, the safe, the self-referential: the films that cater to Hollywood's pathology in the present day and not necessarily those that will hold up better historically.

Nate Silver: “Mostly I was getting credit for having pointed out the obvious - and most of the rest was luck” — Excerpted from "The Signal and the Noise" At about the time "The Signal and the Noise" was first published in September 2012, "Big Data" was on its way becoming a Big Idea. Google searches for the term doubled over the course of a year, as did mentions of it in the news media.

Rich Data, Poor Data — In the 2000 edition of Baseball Prospectus, Keith Woolner identified 23 problems - avenues of analysis that had been dead ends for turn-of-the-millennium statheads. (For instance, No. 10: "Projecting minor league pitchers accurately.") Woolner named these Hilbert Problems, after mathematician David Hilbert, who in 1900 outlined his own set of 23 vexing mathematical problems that he hoped would be solved in the 20th century.

Marco Rubio And The Pareto Frontier — There's still plenty of room for Marco Rubio. Two years ago, I described the Florida senator as the "electable conservative." While Rubio has taken fewer tangible steps toward officially running for president than rivals like Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, he still does reasonably well by that rubric.

Counterpoint: Super Bowl XLIX Was Among The Most Exciting Super Bowls Ever — In the immediate aftermath of the New England Patriots' 28-24 Super Bowl victory over the Seattle Seahawks Sunday night, we gave a preliminary measurement of how exciting the game was using what Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics calls the " Excitement Index."

Are The Patriots Now The Greatest NFL Dynasty Of All Time? — New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady grew up in the San Francisco Bay Area idolizing Joe Montana, Steve Young and the San Francisco 49ers. Now, after winning his fourth Super Bowl on Sunday, Brady has helped the Patriots cement their place alongside the 49ers among the top NFL dynasties of all time.

The Super Bowl Point Spread Has A Strange, Strange History — I have almost no recollection of Super Bowl XXIX - and not just because the Super Bowl was terrible. It was January 1995, I was a junior in high school, and my debate team was busy preparing for the state finals.

The Patriots and Seahawks Are The Best. This Could Be The Worst Super Bowl Ever. — So what if the pregame story lines have been asinine and absurd? On Sunday, the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks will be among the most talented teams to take the field in the Super Bowl. According to FiveThirtyEight's NFL Elo ratings, this year's Seahawks are the fifth-best team to participate in a Super Bowl since the AFC-NFC merger.

Big Blizzards Have Become More Common In New York — It's snowing less in New York, and it's snowing more. Let me explain. If you read my colleague Harry Enten's Sunday piece - or if you've been living in New York for the past few years - you'll know that the city has recently endured some awful snowstorms. Of the top 10 snowfalls on record at Central Park dating to 1869, five have occurred since 2003.

Planes, Trains And Taxis: When To Take Public Transit From The Airport — You can't spell "New York City's LaGuardia Airport" without C-A-B. Er ... actually you can. But for many New Yorkers, a journey to LaGuardia and a taxi ride are synonymous. There's no train or subway connection to the airport, and while there's a bus, most routes require multiple connections and an hour or more's travel.
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Mar 05, 2015

RT @SeanTrende: Excited to announce my wife started a support organization for parents of special needs children. Like their page at…

Mar 05, 2015

My book, The Signal and the Noise, is now available in paperback. Find it at your local bookstore or here -->

Mar 05, 2015

Bettors now predicting Obamacare subsidies will be upheld. (Caveat: they've not been so great on Obamacare before).

Mar 05, 2015

The top calorie source for Americans is "burgers, tacos & sandwiches"

Mar 04, 2015

RT @MonaChalabi: Black drivers more likely to get stopped in US. BUT less tension if the officer is also black……

Mar 02, 2015

Predators pulled goalie with ~4 minutes left, which seems pretty #FancyStats but probably also smart.

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