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Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise ( Sports/politics/food geek.

Why An Ebola Flight Ban Wouldn’t Work — On Sept. 19, Thomas Eric Duncan boarded a flight in Monrovia, Liberia, possibly after having lied on a screening questionnaire about his contact with persons carrying the Ebola virus. The next day, Duncan arrived in Dallas to visit his fiancée and son.

Senate Fundraising Totals Are A Bad Sign For Democrats — Among the most hopeful signs for Democrats this year have been the strong fundraising totals for their Senate candidates. Through June 30, the Democratic incumbent Mark Udall of Colorado had raised $7.9 million in individual contributions to $3.2 million for his Republican opponent, Cory Gardner.

NFL Week 7 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds — The Seattle Seahawks, No. 1 in our NFL Elo ratings since the start of the season, have relinquished that position after losing 30-23 at home against the Dallas Cowboys. The new Elo No. 1 probably won't cause much controversy: It's the Denver Broncos, who are also the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl and the top-rated team in ESPN's panel of experts.

The Polls Might Be Skewed Against Democrats - Or Republicans — This year's Senate election is close. Republicans have the clearer path to a majority, but it's a treacherous one. Republicans are favored in Iowa and Colorado, for example, but not by much. If Democrats eked out victories in those states and picked up the seat in Kansas (by persuading independent Greg Orman to caucus with them), they could control 50 Senate seats and keep their majority.

Senate Update: The Clock Is Ticking — New Hampshire's polling has been strange. Among polls released since Labor Day, eight have shown Democratic incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen ahead by at least 5 percentage points. Three others - including a New England College poll released on Tuesday - have shown narrow leads for Republican Scott Brown.

Royals vs. Orioles Tops Our List Of Comeback Clashes In League Championship Series — The Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals meet Friday night in Baltimore for Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, and they're no strangers to the ALCS. The Orioles will be making their 10th ALCS appearance - only the New York Yankees (15 appearances) and the Oakland A's (11) have made it more often.

The ‘Maroon 6′: A Better Way To Look At The 2014 Senate Races — It's natural to group Senate races based on which party controls the seat in the current Congress. The math seems easy enough. If Republicans win six seats held by Democrats without losing any seats of their own, they'll take control of the Senate. But this view both oversimplifies and overcomplicates the Senate landscape.

NFL Week 6 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds — It was a week of fantastic finishes in the NFL. The Buffalo Bills beat the Detroit Lions on a 58-yard field goal by Dan Carpenter just moments after Lions' kicker Alex Henery shanked his third field goal attempt of the game.

Senate Update: What’s The Matter With South Dakota? — Last month, the battle for Senate control was shaken up when the Democrat Chad Taylor dropped out of the race in Kansas, clearing way for a contest between the center-left independent Greg Orman and the unpopular Republican incumbent Pat Roberts.

Same-Sex Marriage Is Now Legal For A Majority Of The U.S. — Although the trend toward greater acceptance of same-sex marriage has been evident for some time both in jurisprudence and public opinion, the speed with which it has become the law of the land is striking. The U.S.
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Oct 19, 2014

Just 2 weeks before the midterm election and almost no new polls this weekend.…

Oct 19, 2014

Seattle's playoff odds fell by 14% after that weird loss. They may be under 50% in next week's Elo ratings.

Oct 19, 2014

@ForecasterEnten @FiveThirtyEight: Yeah, our house effects adjustment prevented them from having much impact. Gardner was at 70% before.

Oct 19, 2014

RT @ForecasterEnten: With the addition of those new CO polls (Mellman and Benenson), @fivethirtyeight has Gardner as a 69% favorite…

Oct 18, 2014

The new Scrabble dictionary is a CLUSTERFCUK. (You'll have to unscramble that last word).…

Oct 17, 2014

Most travel to US from W. Africa probably connects via London, Paris etc. Gonna ban those too?…

Oct 17, 2014

There are only 5-6 direct flights from West Africa to the U.S. each day, none from countries hardest hit by Ebola.…

Oct 17, 2014

Decent week of polls for the GOP, who are up to 62% to take the Senate. Still, race remains very losable.

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