Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, a Republican, is likely to survive a recall election on June 5, according to recent nonpartisan polls of the state.Mr. Walker leads his Democratic opponent, Mayor Tom Barrett of Milwaukee, by an average of six percentage points in those polls and has not trailed in any poll since February.Some polls issued by Democratic-affiliated groups have shown a somewhat tighter race, with Mr. Barrett trailing by about three percentage points instead. Partisan-affiliated polls have a long track record of somewhat exaggerating their candidate’s standing, however, and it may be telling that even these polls do not show Mr. Barrett ahead.In a typical November election, a 6-point lead with two weeks to go would translate into a high probability of winning — ... Continue reading →
North Carolina is a swing state that has relatively few swing voters. Rhode Island is not a swing state, but it has quite a lot of swing voters.Are you confused yet?The concept I’m getting at here is a pretty basic one, although it is sometimes hard to explain because the term “swing” is applied in such a wide variety of different ways to describe voter behavior. So it may be time to introduce a new term into the political lexicon, which I’ll call an elastic state in reference to a similar concept in economics.Let’s define an elastic state as one that is relatively sensitive or responsive to changes in political conditions, such as a change in the national economic mood. (This is in the same ... Continue reading →
We are interuppting FiveThirtyEight’s regular data-driven analysis for an important public service announcement:A linguistic plague is creeping through the nation’s capital. From the House to the Senate, a demon lurks, luring the country’s leaders to twist and mangle words into grotesque amalgamations.In Washington, there is nowhere to hide from … the acronym. And the English language may not survive the scourge.The specific strain of the acronym virus infecting most of Washington is called “the bacronym.” A bacronym is a premeditated acronym, where a phrase is chosen so that the initial letters of each word form a desired word. The bacronym may hold little appeal for most, but in Washington bacronym-fever is rampant.“Leadership” PACs – committees established by members of Congress to support other candidates — ... Continue reading →
When we last took an overview of Senate races in December, Republicans appeared to be slight favorites to take control from Democrats, with a net gain of four to five seats representing the most likely outcome.Since then, however, Republican fortunes have diminished somewhat because of problems with the quality of some candidates and key retirements. Although Republicans are most likely to gain seats on balance because Democrats have considerably more incumbents up for re-election, the question of whether the Republicans will win enough to gain control now appears to be closer to a tossup. In fact, the outcome may depend on who wins the presidential election, as well as whether an independent Senate candidate who is favored in Maine will caucus with the Democrats.The table ... Continue reading →
President Obama’s decision to endorse same-sex marriage undoubtedly entails some political risk, but recent polls suggest that public opinion is increasingly on his side.According to surveys included in the PollingReport.com database, an average of 50 percent of American adults support same-sex marriage rights while 45 percent oppose it, based on an average of nine surveys conducted in the past year.This is a reversal from earlier periods: support for same-sex marriage has been increasing, and opposition to it has been decreasing, at a relatively steady rate of perhaps two or three percentage points a year since 2004.It should be remembered that support for same-sex marriage in polls has not necessarily translated into support at the ballot booth. On Tuesday, North Carolina became the latest state to ... Continue reading →
