Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV). Sports/politics/food geek.
Is there's an anti-Roberts vote in #KSSEN, especially from conservatives, some of that might wind up with the Libertarian rather than Orman.
Small point, but Kansas polls should be including the name of Randall Batson, the Libertarian (many haven't been). 53eig.ht/1mmCzPI
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A "polls only" model with a Dems at a 93% chance of winning the Senate today is [censored]. No way reasonable assumptions get you there.
RT @kerpen: @NateSilver538 And @Adrian_Gray is at 60% GOP. twitter.com/adrian_gray/st…
For right now, not a shred of difference between "polls" and "polls+" Senate models. There's a difference between Wang's and everyone else's
Senate models: DailyKos GOP 54%, @FiveThirtyEight GOP 55%, HuffPollster GOP 56%, NYT/Upshot GOP 58%, WaPost GOP 62%, Sam Wang Dems 70% (?!?)
Overall, GOP has a 55% chance to win Senate control in our forecast, down from 57% before the Kansas news. 53eig.ht/1rMPY5W
We updated our model to reflect Kansas polls without Taylor on the ballot. Orman, the independent, up to 64% to win. 53eig.ht/1rMPY5W
Here's @ollie with a primer on the English football pyramid and the rise of Swansea City. 53eig.ht/1yjyT6P
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