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Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight

Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise ( Sports/politics/food geek.

Senate Update: With 4 Days Left, Here’s The State of The Race — The GOP's chances of winning the Senate are 68.5 percent according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, their highest figure of the year. Amid the 20 new polls released on Thursday - it looks like there will be no Great Poll Shortage after all - two were principally responsible for Republican gains.

Send Alex Gordon! — It would have been close. Alex Gordon might have scored, particularly if he'd been in the mindset to do so all along. Or maybe not. I'm sure there will be Zapruder-film-type breakdowns, and I'll look forward to seeing them.

Senate Update: Exit To Recountland — Republicans got favorable news in Georgia on Tuesday, where a Monmouth University poll put their candidate, David Perdue, eight points ahead of the Democrat Michelle Nunn. The poll is something of an outlier relative to the consensus - nonetheless, the last seven surveys we've added to our database show a tie or a Perdue lead, reversing a string of polls that put Nunn ahead.

Senate Update: The Momentum Mirage — You might be hearing that Democrats or Republicans have "momentum" heading into the final week of the 2014 campaign. On Tuesday, for example, a Washington Post headline asserted "Midterm momentum belongs to GOP." That was based on a generic ballot poll showing a 6 percentage point Republican lead.

Senate Update: The Swing States That Never Swung — Monday featured a reasonably good set of polls for Republicans. A Louisiana poll from Suffolk University put Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu 7 percentage points behind Republican Bill Cassidy in a potential runoff. A Rasmussen Reports poll of Colorado gave Republican Cory Gardner a 51-45 lead over Democratic Sen. Mark Udall.

Senate Update: The Republican Advantage Is Consistent But Not Decisive — If you're a regular reader of FiveThirtyEight you'll know that our Senate forecast has said pretty much the same thing every day. When we officially launched our model in early September, it gave Republicans a 64 percent chance of winning a majority in the Senate. Today, the number is similar: 63 percent.

Why Did A Rasmussen Reports Poll Disappear? — Have you ever seen a poll disappear? Over the past few years, we've seen a pollster revise a survey once it was made public and another re-poll a race after it claimed there was a "skew" in the respondents.

The Democrats’ Path Of Last Resort Is Georgia — The numbers are the numbers. There's nothing sacred about 51 percent or 72 percent or 95 percent. But certain probabilities, I've found, are harder to translate into the right words. For most of 2014, Republicans' probability of taking over the Senate has been somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast.

Rage Against The Machines — This is an excerpted chapter from "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't" by Nate Silver, editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. The book was published in September 2012 by Penguin Press, and this chapter was the inspiration for "The Man vs.

NFL Week 8 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds — The Denver Broncos, who moved into the top slot in our Elo ratings last week, widened their advantage over the rest of the league in Week 7. Denver looked dominant in beating the San Francisco 49ers, who had been the No. 3 Elo team. The No.
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Oct 31, 2014

Not going to tell you if I just got up or worked all night, but here's my take on where the Senate race stands:

Oct 30, 2014

Not quite to the point where polls would have to be wrong for Dems to keep Senate -- still enough races with no clear leader -- but close.

Oct 30, 2014

Looks like we'll have Grimes' chances down to about 13% in KY with the new SurveyUSA / @courierjournal poll. Full update coming soon.

Oct 30, 2014

RT @FiveThirtyEight: Which elections will swing Senate control? We've added a tab (with maps!) to our interactive:

Oct 30, 2014

If, since Labor Day, you've had everything from 80% chance for Dem Senate to 75% chance for GOP, shouldn't get much credit/blame either way.

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