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Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight

Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise ( Sports/politics/food geek.

College Football Playoff Update: High Stakes For Florida State, UCLA — The Florida State Seminoles have not lost a football game in almost two years. After succumbing to Florida on Nov. 24, 2012, they recovered to win the ACC Championship Game and, on Jan. 1, 2013, the Orange Bowl. They went undefeated (14-0) in the 2013 season and won the national championship.

FiveThirtyEight’s College Football Playoff Forecast — Which teams are most likely to make college football's first-ever four-team playoff? And which have the best chance of coming away with the national title? The quick answer is the obvious one: The Alabama Crimson Tide lead the way on both counts. They're No. 1 in the playoff selection committee's current rankings and No.

Can Alabama Afford To Lose? — Last Saturday, the Mississippi State Bulldogs - ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll, the Coaches Poll and the College Football Playoff committee's rankings - lost to the Alabama Crimson Tide 25-20. The loss ruined the Bulldogs' quest for their first undefeated season since 1940, when they went 10-0-1.

Here’s Proof Some Pollsters Are Putting A Thumb On The Scale — It's time to stop worrying about outliers and start worrying about inliers. Earlier this year, my colleague Harry Enten documented evidence of pollster "herding" - the tendency of polling firms to produce results that closely match one another, especially toward the end of a campaign. What's wrong with the polls agreeing with one another?

Week 11 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds — Who's the best team in the NFL? The answer is as muddled as at any point in the season. According to our Elo ratings, the answer is technically the New England Patriots, who overtook the Denver Broncos after beating them in Week 9.

The NFL Should Expand To London. But First: Canada, Mexico And LA. — It might seem like a matter of time before the NFL and London stop flirting and start going steady. Six NFL teams have flown across the Atlantic to play a football game this year - most recently, the Dallas Cowboys and Jacksonville Jaguars, who squared off on Sunday in the third and final London game of the season.

Why Polls Missed A Shocker In Virginia’s Senate Race — Projections from early exit polls have a well-deserved reputation for being dubious - just ask President John Kerry. But early Tuesday evening, they suggested a potentially shocking outcome in Virginia. Ed Gillespie, the Republican U.S. Senate candidate, was in an extremely close race against Democratic incumbent Mark Warner, who had led by about 9 percentage points in pre-election surveys.

The Polls Were Skewed Toward Democrats — For much of this election cycle, Democrats complained the polls were biased against them. They said the polls were failing to represent enough minority voters and applying overly restrictive likely-voter screens. They claimed early-voting data was proving the polls wrong. They cited the fact that polls were biased against Democrats in 2012.

Five Scenarios For The Senate Election — It's a cliché: Every seat matters. But that's especially true in this year's Senate election. A very close result - 50-50 for Democrats, or 51-49 for Republicans - could be reversed later on in the event a senator switches parties or relinquishes his seat and triggers a special election.

Final Update: Republicans Have A 3 In 4 Chance Of Winning The Senate — After two months of forecasting, it comes down to this: Republicans are favored to win the Senate. Their chances of doing so are 76 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight's Senate forecast, which is principally based on an analysis of the polls in each state and the historical accuracy of Senate polling.
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Nov 25, 2014

Law officers facing charges are incarcerated 12% of the time. For general population, 48%.

Nov 24, 2014

Wilson's case was in state court not federal court. But still "something has gone horribly wrong” when no indictment.

Nov 24, 2014

Extremely rare for a grand jury to fail to return an indictment. Only about 0.01% of the time in federal cases (1/2).

Nov 23, 2014

When Cruz gets back next year the Giants will have a hell of a receiving corps for Eli to throw interceptions to.

Nov 23, 2014

Tuesday's ratings for UCLA, FSU will tell us a lot the playoff committee's thinking.

Nov 23, 2014

Alabama 27%, Oregon 25%, FSU 12%, Baylor 9%, tOSU 8%, TCU 8%, Miss. St 7%, UCLA 3%, Georgia 2%.

Nov 22, 2014

RT @FiveThirtyEight: More undocumented immigrants left the U.S. in the past 6 years, voluntarily or through deportation, than arrived.

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