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Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight

Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise ( Sports/politics/food geek.

Is Vegas Underrating The Warriors? — Our NBA playoff projections, which are based on a version of Jeremias Engelmann andSteve Ilardi's Real Plus-Minus ratings (RPM), give the Golden State Warriors a 48 percent chance of winning the NBA title.

Is Bush Doomed In The General? (Or: A Lesson In Conditional Probability) — If you compare Hillary Clinton's favorability ratings to Jeb Bush's, you'll find what seems like a sign of impending doom for the Republican should he face her in the general election. Whereas Clinton's favorability ratings are break-even, Bush's are poor, with a 31 percent favorable rating and a 45 percent unfavorable rating.

A Simple, Knicks-Proof Proposal To Improve The NBA’s Draft Lottery — The New York Knicks did something unusual Monday night: They won a basketball game - just their 17th this season. What wasn't so unusual - from a franchise that starred in such tragicomedies as Amar'e Stoudemire punching a fire extinguisher and Andrea Bargnani nearly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory - was the Knicks' poor sense of timing.

Kasich Could Be The GOP’s Moderate Backstop — Does Ohio Governor John Kasich, who is reportedly considering a presidential bid, have much chance against Republican heavyweights like Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and Marco Rubio? He might, if the party decides it prefers a moderate to a conservative. There's nothing wrong with Kasich's credentials.

Clinton Begins The 2016 Campaign, And It’s A Toss-up — There's already plenty of bad punditry regarding the chances of Hillary Clinton, who is expected to officially announce her candidacy on Sunday, to become the 45th president. You can find Democrats boasting about their "blue wall" in the Electoral College and how hard this will make it for any Republican to win.

Response Bias and the Shy Tory Factor — I have to confess that I'm having a hell of a time figuring out what to make of the post-convention polling. Undoubtedly, the Republican convention has produced a bounce in John McCain's direction. This is nothing especially unusual. Almost all conventions do so, and in most (though not all) cases, the bounce evaporates at some point in the following weeks.

How Far Is Tiger Woods Behind Jack Nicklaus’s Major-Winning Pace? — When Tiger Woods teed off Thursday afternoon to begin this year's Masters bid, it was the start of just his third appearance of the 2015 season and his first competitive round since a back injury forced him to withdraw on the first day of the Farmers Insurance Open in early February.

There Are Few Libertarians. But Many Americans Have Libertarian Views. — The New York Times' Paul Krugman, assessing the presidential candidacy of Rand Paul, asserts that there aren't very many libertarians in the United States. Most Americans, Krugman says, take clearly "liberal" or "conservative" positions on both economic and social issues. Here's the graphic Krugman drew to represent his claim: It's correct to say that few Americans identify as libertarian.

Coach Cal Blew It — Even 38-0 teams can go through mistimed offensive slumps, and the Kentucky Wildcats went through one at a very bad time Saturday night. Kentucky went more than 5 minutes without scoring in its loss to Wisconsin on Saturday.

Hot Takedown: An Emergency Discussion About Kentucky’s Loss, Live From Our Hotel Room — Welcome to an emergency edition of Hot Takedown, our podcast where, usually, the hot sports takes of the week meet the numbers that prove them right or tear them down. This episode, though, is different. A few FiveThirtyEighters were in Indianapolis to see Wisconsin beat Kentucky live from inside Lucas Oil stadium last night.
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Apr 17, 2015

What if A-Rod hits .356/.502/.799 with 66 HR and 174 RBI? Is that better for his MVP chances or worse?

Apr 17, 2015

@bryanjoiner: Forgot to stipulate: A-Rod also has 5 HR and 17 RBI as Yankees beat Angels 23-22 in legendary Game 163 to reach postseason.

Apr 17, 2015

If A-Rod hits like .302/.410/.656 with 46 HR and 127 RBI -- and Yankees make the playoffs -- would the writers dare vote him MVP?

Apr 17, 2015

Anyway, my default is to assume Vegas is right when it disagrees w/ stat models. But the Warriors are a tempting bet:

Apr 17, 2015

Teams with regular-season records like the Warriors (67-15) are really good at winning titles:

Apr 17, 2015

Big split between stat models, which give Dubs a ~45% chance of winning a ring, and Vegas which has them at ~25%.…

Apr 17, 2015

Spoiler: if Bush is as unpopular as polls say, he's not going to be the GOP nominee anyway.

Apr 17, 2015

This guy solves the Sunday NYT crossword, on average, in 5:38.

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