Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV). Sports/politics/food geek.

We Thought Marco Rubio Lost The Debate, But New Hampshire Might Think Differently

fivethirtyeight.com — 2016 Election We here at FiveThirtyEight endorse the conventional wisdom, for a change. Like most other people covering the event, we thought that Marco Rubio had a really bad night in Saturday's Republican debate, that the three Republican governors (Chris Christie, Jeb Bush and John Kasich) had a pretty good night, and that Donald Trump and Ted Cruz were somewhere in between.
Feb 07, 2016

RT @NateSilver538: If you're up at 1 in the morning reading politics Twitter, you might as well read my debate wrap: fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-th…

Feb 07, 2016

RT @NateSilver538: If you're up at 1 in the morning reading politics Twitter, you might as well read my debate wrap: fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-th…

Feb 07, 2016

If you're up at 1 in the morning reading politics Twitter, you might as well read my debate wrap: fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-th…

Show 2 more tweets from Jeff Butera, Susan Tran

Maybe Chris Christie Should Have Taken On Donald Trump

fivethirtyeight.com — 2016 Election RINDGE, N.H. - We caught a glimpse of Chris Christie at Bruchetti's Pizzeria in Sandown, New Hampshire, yesterday, where the New Jersey governor shook hands and swapped stories with locals and tourists during a brief visit. (Christie didn't get a slice of pizza. We did.)
Feb 06, 2016

Chris Christie has lost half his support in New Hampshire. Maybe he should have taken on Donald Trump: fivethirtyeight.com/features/maybe…

Feb 06, 2016

Christie giving Trump a pass on his 9/11 remarks went against everything Christie's brand is supposed to stand for: fivethirtyeight.com/features/maybe…

Feb 06, 2016

RT @NateSilver538: Chris Christie has lost half his support in New Hampshire. Maybe he should have taken on Donald Trump: fivethirtyeight.com/features/maybe…

Analysis From the New Hampshire Primary

Marco Rubio Stole Ted Cruz’s Iowa Bounce

fivethirtyeight.com — 2016 Election HOLLIS, N.H. - A candidate is moving up in the New Hampshire polls - but it's the man who finished third in Iowa, Marco Rubio, and not the Iowa winner, Ted Cruz. Below is a comparison of our New Hampshire weighted polling average as it was on Feb.

Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild

fivethirtyeight.com — 2016 Election MANCHESTER, N.H. - The FiveThirtyEight political team has just landed in New Hampshire, where we were hoping to get a clearer picture of the post-Iowa polling landscape. Instead, there are mixed signals.
Feb 04, 2016

Trump's favored in New Hampshire, and Rubio's gaining. Beyond that, not a lot of agreement in post-Iowa data: 53eig.ht/23LRiGz

Feb 04, 2016

Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild 53eig.ht/1UOu0d0

What Howard Dean Can Teach Us About 2016

fivethirtyeight.com — A bonus 2016 Slack chat this week! We're premiering a short documentary today about Howard Dean's 2004 presidential campaign called " The Dean Scream " - the first in a series of films re-evaluating famous moments from past campaigns. So we gathered our election nerds to talk over what can be learned from Dean's roller-coaster ride.
Feb 04, 2016

538 on the infamous Howard Dean Scream and how it illustrates the media's coverage of elections -- fair or not. fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-…

Liberal-Conservative Rankings Done Right

fivethirtyeight.com — I think I'm a pretty smart guy, but every now and then I come across something and say to myself "man, that shit is deep".
Feb 03, 2016

Anyway, by Sanders' definition, Obama isn't "progressive" either, which is an argument he doesn't want to make. fivethirtyeight.com/features/liber…

Feb 03, 2016

RT @jbouie: Anyway, by Sanders' definition, Obama isn't "progressive" either, which is an argument he doesn't want to make. fivethirtyeight.com/features/liber…

Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much

fivethirtyeight.com — 2016 Election Marco Rubio finished in third in Iowa - a "strong third" in which he outperformed his polls, but third nevertheless. And yet, his chances of winning the Republican nomination nearly doubled according to the bookmaker Betfair, from about 30 percent before the Iowa caucuses to 55 percent now.

Where Does Ted Cruz Go From Here?

fivethirtyeight.com — For this week's 2016 Slack chat, the FiveThirtyEight politics team talks about what rewards Ted Cruz can expect to reap from his victory in the Iowa caucuses on Monday. micah ( Micah Cohen, politics editor): Hopefully you all got some sleep after a late night, because we've got the future to consider!
Feb 02, 2016

RT @NateSilver538: Betting markets give Ted Cruz just a 13 percent chance of the GOP nomination. We think that's too low. fivethirtyeight.com/features/where…

Feb 02, 2016

Betting markets give Ted Cruz just a 13 percent chance of the GOP nomination. We think that's too low. fivethirtyeight.com/features/where…

Feb 02, 2016

And yet ... it's not that easy to outline a path where Cruz gets to 50% + 1 delegates. fivethirtyeight.com/features/where…

Feb 02, 2016

"Trump 22 percent, Rubio 21, Kasich 18, Cruz 17 or something in that vicinity is an entirely plausible outcome" fivethirtyeight.com/features/where…

Feb 02, 2016

RT @NateSilver538: "Trump 22 percent, Rubio 21, Kasich 18, Cruz 17 or something in that vicinity is an entirely plausible outcome" fivethirtyeight.com/features/where…

Show 2 more tweets from Clare Malone, Ben Philpott

Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan

fivethirtyeight.com — 2016 Election On Monday, Iowa voters did something that Republican " party elites " had failed to do for more than seven months: They rejected Donald Trump. Trump received 24 percent of the vote in the Iowa caucuses, placing him closer to the third-place candidate, Marco Rubio (23 percent), than to the winner, Ted Cruz (28 percent).
More Articles →
Feb 07, 2016

If you're up at 1 in the morning reading politics Twitter, you might as well read my debate wrap: fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-th…

Feb 07, 2016

I thought Rubio had a real bad night too but given the media groupthink on the issue I'm rapidly becoming less certain.

Feb 06, 2016

NH Republicans split about 50/50 between "pro-choice" and "pro-life". 53eig.ht/1L7dShm

Feb 06, 2016

But temper that with: pundits' reaction to the debate not always a great match for voters at home: twitter.com/hunterschwarz/…

Feb 06, 2016

Keep in mind: last minute changes in NH are as much the rule as the exception. 53eig.ht/1UUBIT5

Feb 06, 2016

If it were me I'd have much more of a firewall between play-by-play and color commentary for the networks covering the debate.

Feb 06, 2016

You hear a LOT about opiate and heroin addiction from voters here in New Hampshire. Glad a Q was asked about it. 53eig.ht/1PeQuT3

Feb 06, 2016

Everyone's ganging up on Rubio tonight like poker players do when they know a guy's on tilt. 53eig.ht/1XbafxF

Feb 06, 2016

Twitter predicts that the media will declare Marco Rubio or Donald Trump tonight's winner. 53eig.ht/1Qkqsvf

Feb 06, 2016

Who do you predict the media will declare the winner of tonight's debate?


Are You a Journalist?

Make a Portfolio

Create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile and upload a portfolio of your best work.