Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (amzn.to/QdyFYV). Sports/politics/food geek.

Republicans In Competitive Races Have Shunned Trump

fivethirtyeight.com — Indiana Gov. Mike Pence endorsed Ted Cruz on Friday, which may not be enough to help Cruz win Indiana, where he currently trails Donald Trump in polls, let alone the Republican nomination. Nevertheless, the endorsement is part of a pattern: With the exception of a single congressman from Western New York, no Republican who faces a competitive gubernatorial, Senate or House election this November has endorsed Trump.

Ind. Republican Primary Forecasts

projects.fivethirtyeight.com — According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Ted Cruz has a 53% chance of winning the Indiana primary. The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones.

Can Carly Fiorina Save Ted Cruz’s Candidacy?

fivethirtyeight.com — In a special politics chat, we unpack the news that Ted Cruz has decided to name a vice presidential pick. The transcript below has been lightly edited. More Politics micah ( Micah Cohen, politics editor): Emergency Slack chat time! Ted Cruz will reportedly announce today that Carly Fiorina would be his pick for vice president should he win the Republican nomination.

It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose*

fivethirtyeight.com — Tuesday night went about as well as possible for Donald Trump. Two weeks ago, after a rough stretch of states for Trump, we issued a series of delegate projections that included something called a "path-to-1,237" projection, a set of targets that would allow Trump to clinch a delegate majority without having to rely on uncommitted delegates.

Conn. Democratic Primary Forecasts

projects.fivethirtyeight.com — According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has a 76% chance of winning the Connecticut primary. The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones.

Today Is Clinton’s Chance To End The ‘Groundhog Day’ Campaign

linkis.com — The Democratic campaign has taken on the feel of "Groundhog Day," repeating the same storyline over and over with only minor variation. Hillary Clinton, in our view, has spent...

Today Is Clinton’s Chance To End The ‘Groundhog Day’ Campaign

fivethirtyeight.com — The Democratic campaign has taken on the feel of " Groundhog Day," repeating the same storyline over and over with only minor variation. Hillary Clinton, in our view, has spent most of the year in the liminal space between "clear favorite" and "presumptive nominee."

Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?

fivethirtyeight.com — In this week's politics chat, we weigh the impact of the newly minted alliance between Ted Cruz and John Kasich against Donald Trump. The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah ( Micah Cohen, politics editor): Hey, everyone!

Pa. Democratic Primary Forecasts

projects.fivethirtyeight.com — According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has a 98% chance of winning the Pennsylvania primary. The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones.

Internal Polls | FiveThirtyEight

fivethirtyeight.com — This site has had a ban on listing internal polls for some time now. The logic behind this is that when a candidate for office commissions a poll, he is only liable to leak its results to the public if it contains good news for him, thereby encouraging donors, press persons, etc.
More Articles →
May 01, 2016

The median Trump voter has a household income of about $75K. Median for GOP primary electorate a whole is ~$80K. For Democrats, about $60K.The median Trump voter has a household income of about $75K. Median for GOP primary electorate a whole is ~$80K. For Democrats, about $60K.

May 01, 2016

In exit polls, low education levels are a much stronger predictor of Trump support than low incomes. GOP primary voters are pretty well-off.In exit polls, low education levels are a much stronger predictor of Trump support than low incomes. GOP primary voters are pretty well-off.

May 01, 2016

RT @ForecasterEnten: Sanders cannot wrap his head around the fact that more voters want Clinton to be the nominee than want Sanders.

May 01, 2016

@SeanTrende: "Rubio or someone" is part of the issue. A big Q is why GOP didn't get behind Rubio *specifically* until it was too late.

May 01, 2016

@SeanTrende: The pre-Iowa period was strange. But I think (i) ethanol was a factor (ii) GOPe thought Rubio or someone would emerge later on.

May 01, 2016

I've written a lot about parts 2 (53eig.ht/1PgH6PX) and 3 (53eig.ht/2320qFy). Overdue to do more thinking about part 1.

May 01, 2016

Updated post-Trump priors: 1. Voters are more tribal than I thought. 2. GOP is weaker than I thought. 3. Media is worse than I thought.Updated post-Trump priors: 1. Voters are more tribal than I thought. 2. GOP is weaker than I thought. 3. Media is worse than I thought.

May 01, 2016

Not in her wildest dreams did Hillary think GOP would pick a candidate who is both so unpopular and so devastating to conservative movement.Not in her wildest dreams did Hillary think GOP would pick a candidate who is both so unpopular and so devastating to conservative movement.

May 01, 2016

@SeanTrende: Not sure that's literally true. I think the trepidations about Cruz blunted anti-Trumpness and enabled strategic folly though.

May 01, 2016

Our "polls-plus" forecast shows a closer race than the "polls-only" version, but also has Trump favored. 53eig.ht/1T4nFrk


Are You a Journalist?

Make a Portfolio

Create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile and upload a portfolio of your best work.