Nate Silver on Muck Rack

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Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight

Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV). Sports/politics/food geek.

A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump

fivethirtyeight.com — One question we've asked about Donald Trump's campaign is what would happen if another candidate were to get a surge of media coverage, throwing a wrench in the works of Trump's perpetual attention machine. Based on the latest polls, we may soon get the best test of this question since Trump entered the race.
Aug 31, 2015

Dangerous to predict these things, but Ben Carson seems like a good candidate for a polling surge. 53eig.ht/1X6I4kM

Aug 31, 2015

RT @NateSilver538: Dangerous to predict these things, but Ben Carson seems like a good candidate for a polling surge. 53eig.ht/1X6I4kM

Aug 31, 2015

Carson's already almost tied with Trump in Iowa even though Trump gets literally 60x more media coverage. 53eig.ht/1X6I4kM

Aug 31, 2015

RT @NateSilver538: Carson's already almost tied with Trump in Iowa even though Trump gets literally 60x more media coverage. 53eig.ht/1X6I4kM

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Most Of The Biden Speculation Is Malarkey

fivethirtyeight.com — Another day, another batch of mostly redundant and anonymously sourced stories about whether Vice President Joe Biden will run for president. Some of those stories, however, are getting ridiculous. So FiveThirtyEight's politics writers met in Slack to pick over the latest Biden coverage, our own assumptions and the state of the 2016 Democratic primary.
Aug 28, 2015

In today's edition of bullshit detector: Will Biden run? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Would a Biden run be good news for Hillary? 💩💩💩 53eig.ht/1NYeY0P

Aug 28, 2015

RT @NateSilver538: In today's edition of bullshit detector: Will Biden run? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Would a Biden run be good news for Hillary? 💩💩💩 53eig.ht/1NYeY0P

Aug 28, 2015

RT @EsotericCD: Read this VERY smart back-and-forth btw @ForecasterEnten & @NateSilver538 on malarkey surrounding potential Biden run http:…

Aug 28, 2015

RT @monkeycageblog: Can't say this enough: "Mean-reversion tends to be stronger than momentum." From @NateSilver538. fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/most-o…

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Public Transit Should Be Uber’s New Best Friend

fivethirtyeight.com — If Uber is worth its $50 billion valuation, it will have to do more than win over the market historically occupied by the taxi and limo industry -it will have to identify new types of customers.
Aug 28, 2015

The average personal car trip costs $5. Will be a while before Uber can beat that. But a combo of Uber + transit can. 53eig.ht/1Ke9ilM

Aug 28, 2015

RT @NateSilver538: The average personal car trip costs $5. Will be a while before Uber can beat that. But a combo of Uber + transit can. 53eig.ht/1Ke9ilM

Aug 28, 2015

RT @NateSilver538: The average personal car trip costs $5. Will be a while before Uber can beat that. But a combo of Uber + transit can. 53eig.ht/1Ke9ilM

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Donald Trump Is Running A Perpetual Attention Machine

fivethirtyeight.com — Earlier this month, I outlined Donald Trump's " Six Stages of Doom " - the hurdles he'll have to clear to win the Republican nomination. The first obstacle: Could Trump keep his polling numbers up when another storyline emerged that prevented him from monopolizing the news cycle?
Aug 26, 2015

Donald Trump isn't crazy. He's a brilliant tactician. Not easy to be so good at trolling. 53eig.ht/1KN1IsU

Aug 26, 2015

Would the news media please, please stop covering this guy!! Donald Trump Is Running A Perpetual Attention Machine 53eig.ht/1i09Q2c

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The New York Times

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com — Perhaps now that the election is over and things are slightly calmer around here, we can take questions from readers a little more often - or even do a "mailbag" column once in a while. I got an e-mail from Richard S.

Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls - And Losing The Nomination

fivethirtyeight.com — Twelve years ago, in August 2003, Joe Lieberman led in of the Democratic primary. Eight years ago, in August 2007, Rudy Giuliani maintained a clear lead in polls of Republicans, while Hillary Clinton led in polls of the Democratic nomination contest .
Aug 22, 2015

Reminder: we're 444 days from the 2016 general election, 163 days from Iowa caucus. The polls don't mean much at all. 53eig.ht/1MFkK8J

Aug 22, 2015

RT @NateSilver538: Reminder: we're 444 days from the 2016 general election, 163 days from Iowa caucus. The polls don't mean much at all. 53eig.ht/1MFkK8J

Aug 22, 2015

RT @NateSilver538: Reminder: we're 444 days from the 2016 general election, 163 days from Iowa caucus. The polls don't mean much at all. 53eig.ht/1MFkK8J

Aug 23, 2015

Meanwhile, realtalk from @natesilver: Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination 53eig.ht/1f5cykS

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Roundtable: Is The Republican Establishment Losing Control Of The Party?

fivethirtyeight.com — The 2016 Republican presidential primary field is unusually large and unusually unsettled, and the first debate earlier this month didn't do much to change either of those things. So we gathered FiveThirtyEight's political writers in Slack to talk about the state of the race. This is an edited transcript of the conversation.
Aug 18, 2015

RT @FiveThirtyEight: Is the GOP establishment losing control of the party? Here's our roundtable conversation: 53eig.ht/1hlwa6n pic.twitter.com/rF8AvYjYAA

Aug 18, 2015

Pres campaign is "a marathon, not a sprint, even though the media horde treats it as a series of sprints." 53eig.ht/1LiK4CJ

Aug 19, 2015

Nice to see the @SlackHQ takeover is proceeding as planned: @FiveThirtyEight publishes Slack convo on GOP campaigns 53eig.ht/1JimHqT

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Hillary Clinton’s Inevitable Problems

fivethirtyeight.com — With so many candidates and so long to go until next November, we're going to make plenty of bad predictions over the course of the 2016 campaign. But one of our very first predictions about 2016, one we made almost three years ago, has already proven true.
Aug 17, 2015

Pundits: Hillary's in disarray! Betting markets: Nothing's changed! Who's right? 53eig.ht/1Phg3RI

Aug 17, 2015

RT @NateSilver538: Pundits: Hillary's in disarray! Betting markets: Nothing's changed! Who's right? 53eig.ht/1Phg3RI

Aug 17, 2015

Phases to be wary of when you see them in campaign coverage: "momentum", "expectations". 53eig.ht/1Phg3RI pic.twitter.com/CKDJyh9cEz

Aug 17, 2015

RT @NateSilver538: Phases to be wary of when you see them in campaign coverage: "momentum", "expectations". 53eig.ht/1Phg3RI pic.twitter.com/CKDJyh9cEz

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Why Hillary Clinton Would Be Strong in 2016 (It’s Not Her Favorability Ratings)

fivethirtyeight.com — Let's start by stating the obvious: Hillary Rodham Clinton would be a formidable presidential candidate in 2016. Mrs. Clinton's credentials as secretary of state, as a United States senator and as a politically engaged first lady would be hard for any of her Democratic or Republican rivals to match.
Aug 12, 2015

We called this Hillary thing 3 years ago. (Not the email stuff, but that her favorables would decline substantially.) 53eig.ht/1L5EReE

Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls - And Losing The Nomination

fivethirtyeight.com — Twelve years ago, in August 2003, Joe Lieberman led in of the Democratic primary. Eight years ago, in August 2007, Rudy Giuliani maintained a clear lead in polls of Republicans, while Hillary Clinton led in polls of the Democratic nomination contest .
Show 37 more tweets from Luc Hatlestad, David Epstein and others...
More Articles →
Sep 01, 2015

Re: CNN and Fiorina. Not making a stupid rule > Changing a stupid role > Following a stupid rule.

Sep 01, 2015

RT @DataIsBeautiful: Hello everyone, I'm Mona Chalabi from FiveThirtyEight, and I analyse data on pubes and politics. Ask Me An… reddit.com/r/dataisbeauti… #dataviz

Aug 31, 2015

Bernie Sanders is still gaining on Clinton, but he'll hit a ceiling until/unless he can win more nonwhite voters. 53eig.ht/1EwH43H

Aug 31, 2015

Carson's already almost tied with Trump in Iowa even though Trump gets literally 60x more media coverage. 53eig.ht/1X6I4kM

Aug 31, 2015

Dangerous to predict these things, but Ben Carson seems like a good candidate for a polling surge. 53eig.ht/1X6I4kM

Aug 31, 2015

Is Serena Williams the greatest of all-time? (A: It's complicated.) 53eig.ht/1fR66yn

Aug 30, 2015

Dramatic vista from the highest peak in Ohio, which we could rename after Pres. McKinley? ssl.panoramio.com/photo/46575098 pic.twitter.com/p1SQi4EmXB

Aug 30, 2015

If elected president I'll erect a seawall on our maritime border with Russia.

Aug 28, 2015

~80% of Democratic "insiders" in IA/NH don't want Biden to run. Seems more impt than cherry-picked stories elsewhere. politico.com/story/2015/08/…

Aug 28, 2015

There are almost 10 times more subway rides every day in NYC than Uber and taxis combined. fivethirtyeight.com/features/publi…


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