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New York
Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight

Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV). Sports/politics/food geek.

Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates

fivethirtyeight.com — Despite what you may have read elsewhere - or heard from the man himself - Donald Trump is not all that popular with Republican voters. Sure, he's in first place in many polls. But Trump is near the back of the pack by another important measure.
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We’re Hiring A Sports Editor

fivethirtyeight.com — Maybe it's that we're owned by ESPN or something, but our sports coverage is one of the most popular subjects on our site. At the moment, though, it is spread among three editors, and we've decided it's time to consolidate it under the direction of a new senior editor for sports.
Jul 26, 2015

RT @FiveThirtyEight: If you're reading this, you're probably a sports geek. In which case, we want to hire you. Check it out --> http://t.c…

Jul 26, 2015

RT @FiveThirtyEight: If you're reading this, you're probably a sports geek. In which case, we want to hire you. Check it out --> http://t.c…

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Donald Trump Is The World’s Greatest Troll

fivethirtyeight.com — "A troll," according to one definition, "is a person who sows discord ... by starting arguments or upsetting people ... with the deliberate intent of provoking readers into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion." The goal of the troll is to provoke a reaction by any means necessary.
Jul 20, 2015

Since mid-June, Trump has been Googled more than all other GOP candidates combined. 53eig.ht/1ecvjCx pic.twitter.com/RYk3EtmHzX

Jul 20, 2015

RT @NateSilver538: Since mid-June, Trump has been Googled more than all other GOP candidates combined. 53eig.ht/1ecvjCx pic.twitter.com/RYk3EtmHzX

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The Bernie Sanders Surge Is About Bernie, Not Hillary

fivethirtyeight.com — "The recent rise of Bernie Sanders," wrote Vox's Jonathan Allen last week, "points as much to [Hillary] Clinton's vulnerability as Sanders's strength." Allen went on to argue that Joe Biden should run for president. "The Sanders surge shows that Democratic activists want an alternative to Clinton," he explained.
Jul 15, 2015

What some folks in the media get wrong about Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, explained. 53eig.ht/1O6yqbo pic.twitter.com/8OaBfRc343

Jul 15, 2015

RT @NateSilver538: What some folks in the media get wrong about Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, explained. 53eig.ht/1O6yqbo pic.twitter.com/8OaBfRc343

Jul 15, 2015

RT @NateSilver538: What some folks in the media get wrong about Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, explained. 53eig.ht/1O6yqbo pic.twitter.com/8OaBfRc343

Jul 15, 2015

RT @NateSilver538: What some folks in the media get wrong about Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, explained. 53eig.ht/1O6yqbo pic.twitter.com/8OaBfRc343

Jul 15, 2015

RT @NateSilver538: What some folks in the media get wrong about Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, explained. 53eig.ht/1O6yqbo pic.twitter.com/8OaBfRc343

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Republicans Are Acting Like Democrats. Democrats Are Acting Like Republicans.

fivethirtyeight.com — "You know the difference in Democrats and Republicans?" Bill Clinton said in a 2003 speech. "In every presidential election, Democrats want to fall in love. Republicans just fall in line." Clinton's aphorism - which he attributed to a friend - has become a part of the conventional wisdom about how the parties behave.
Jul 14, 2015

Put another way, Republicans are acting like Democrats this cycle and Democrats are acting like Republicans. 53eig.ht/1TARHp7

Jul 14, 2015

We weren't sure where in the hell to put Donald Trump on this chart, in one chart. 53eig.ht/1TARHp7 pic.twitter.com/AL5h8vDCsq

Jul 14, 2015

This year, Dems are rallying and Reps are waiting -- a reversal of the usual pattern. @NateSilver538 53eig.ht/1CEXpCa

Jul 14, 2015

10 points for endorsements from governors, five for senators and 1 for representatives 53eig.ht/1f0tLwf

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Bernie Sanders Could Win Iowa And New Hampshire. Then Lose Everywhere Else.

fivethirtyeight.com — Hillary Clinton's campaign is now telling reporters that she is at risk of losing Iowa to Bernie Sanders in the February caucuses. One ought to view these stories a bit cynically: It almost always benefits a candidate to lower expectations in Iowa, and these warnings are often designed to activate lethargic supporters.
Jul 10, 2015

Bernie Sanders Could Win Iowa And New Hampshire. Then Lose Everywhere Else. 53eig.ht/1G5YWvS

Jul 08, 2015

Bernie Sanders could win Iowa and New Hampshire. (Then lose almost everywhere else.) 53eig.ht/1Cpbi7r

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The Polls Were Bad in Greece. The Conventional Wisdom Was Worse.

fivethirtyeight.com — Coming on the heels of the U.K. general election, the Israeli general election, the Scottish referendum and the U.S. midterms, Sunday's Greek referendum looks like the latest in a series of bad outcomes for pre-election polls across the globe.
Jul 07, 2015

Polls were bad in Greece, but this time pollsters had good excuses. Harder to grok why markets so sure of a yes vote. 53eig.ht/1J2mqE5

Jul 07, 2015

It's hard to imagine a worse circumstance for pre-election polling (or even guessing) than the Greek referendum. 53eig.ht/1H72jUT

Jul 07, 2015

This part's more speculative, but a theory about why "no" vote was understated in the polls: 53eig.ht/1J2mqE5 pic.twitter.com/Kezmp9r5iZ

Jul 07, 2015

RT @fstonenyc: It's hard to imagine a worse circumstance for pre-election polling (or even guessing) than the Greek referendum. 53eig.ht/1H72jUT

Jul 07, 2015

The question in Greece isn't why the polls were wrong. It's why anyone believed them in the first place. 53eig.ht/1NLvgd1

The U.S. Women May Be The Greatest World Cup Dynasty

fivethirtyeight.com — The U.S. and Germany are the only teams to have won the Women's World Cup twice. So the United States' 2-0 win over Germany in the World Cup semifinal on Tuesday night wasn't only the most important game of this year's tournament.
Jul 01, 2015

World Cup resume of US women is pretty similar to the best men's teams of all-time. 53eig.ht/1KtybHR pic.twitter.com/WdJMpYfSvG

Jul 05, 2015

The U.S. Women May Be The Greatest World Cup Dynasty 53eig.ht/1Jx4Ric

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Change Doesn’t Usually Come This Fast

fivethirtyeight.com — I was raised in East Lansing, Michigan. It was a great place to grow up: a college town with good public schools, a beautiful campus, a modicum of diversity, and an active, walkable downtown. But I came along just a few years too soon (I was born in 1978) to really consider coming out as gay when growing up.
Jun 26, 2015

.@NateSilver538 says he couldn't come out when growing up, let alone imagine national SSM just a few decades later. 53eig.ht/1BTtTsi

Jun 26, 2015

RT @fstonenyc: .@NateSilver538 says he couldn't come out when growing up, let alone imagine national SSM just a few decades later. 53eig.ht/1BTtTsi

Jun 26, 2015

Everyone knows that I joke w/ @natesilver538 on Twitter, but I genuinely mean it when I say this is a great piece fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/change…

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Introducing Our Newest Podcast: What’s The Point

fivethirtyeight.com — At FiveThirtyEight, we don't just crunch numbers, we also care about how data affects our lives - in all sorts of areas. Now that we've launched one podcast devoted to sports analytics, it's time to start talking about everything else. Our newest show, What's The Point, is a short weekly conversation (tag line: "Big Data.
Jun 24, 2015

Our new podcast, "What's the Point?", is live! Interviews with people in the world of data. Hosted by @jodyavirgan fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/introd…

Jun 24, 2015

Very excited that @jodyavirgan has a new podcast, and very excited that we called it 'What's the Point.' Subscribe! fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/introd…

Jun 24, 2015

RT @ChadwickMatlin: Very excited that @jodyavirgan has a new podcast, and very excited that we called it 'What's the Point.' Subscribe! fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/introd…

Jun 24, 2015

RT @ChadwickMatlin: Very excited that @jodyavirgan has a new podcast, and very excited that we called it 'What's the Point.' Subscribe! fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/introd…

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More Articles →
Jul 28, 2015

But of course it complicates The Narrative if you look at Trump's poor favorables in conjunction with the rest of his polling.

Jul 28, 2015

Basically Trump is the Nickelback of presidential candidates. Disliked by most, super popular with a few.

Jul 28, 2015

People miss that Trump isn't actually very popular with Republicans. Now at about 47% favorable, 43% unfavorable among GOP voters. Not good.

Jul 27, 2015

PSA: Those tweets are what happens when you forget to lock screen before going on a roller coaster.

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