National Review senior editor, Bloomberg View columnist, AEI Visiting Fellow

Hold the Champagne, Republicans

bloombergview.com — What if the Democrats win? The prevailing assumption is that Republicans will take the Senate in the midterm elections on Nov. 4. It would be a surprise if they didn't. But not a huge surprise. In the poll averages at RealClearPolitics, Republican Senate candidates have leads smaller than 2.3 percentage points in Alaska, Georgia and Iowa.

A Senate to Come

nationalreview.com — Don't expect the results of the Senate elections to change the policies of the federal government very much over the next two years. Overthrowing Harry Reid isn't going to yield tax reform or rein in the EPA. It may not even mean a go-ahead for the Keystone pipeline.

A Nonsensical Republican Budget Plan

bloombergview.com — Representative Kevin McCarthy, the House majority leader, says that he wants to pass a budget for next year soon after the midterm elections. Then Republicans -- whom he hopes will be in charge of the Senate as well as the House next year -- can work on bigger legislation to "prove we could govern."

Today in Gender Gappery

nationalreview.com — Janet Hook writes in the Wall Street Journal that the gender gap is shrinking, and declining female support for Democrats is hurting them in the Iowa, Colorado, and Arkansas Senate races. The Democrats are indeed in trouble, but there's little evidence that it's because the gender gap is shrinking.

John Kasich's Big Obamacare Mistake

bloombergview.com — John Kasich, the Republican governor of Ohio who may be mulling a presidential bid, stepped in it this week. He appeared to say that he thought the Affordable Care Act would never be repealed -- as many Republicans hope -- because it helps too many people.

Proposed Obamacare fix would make things worse: Bloomberg opinion

oregonlive.com — For the most part, the political debate over President Barack Obama's health-care overhaul has become a duel between vague slogans: Republicans say they want to "replace" the Affordable Care Act but generally don't say with what. Democrats say they want to "fix" it but usually don't say how. So Democratic Sens.

Republicans Making Gains Among Men, Women, Maybe the Intersexed

nationalreview.com — A new AP-GfK poll shows that among women who are likely to vote, Republican congressional candidates lead 44-42 percent. Among male likely voters, they lead 50-36. The findings are similar to the exit polls in the last midterm elections elections, in 2010, when Republicans narrowly won women (49-48 percent) and men were 6 points more likely to back the Republican candidates.

Sorry, Obamacare Is Still Unfixable

bloombergview.com — For the most part, the political debate over President Barack Obama's health-care overhaul has become a duel between vague slogans: Republicans say they want to "replace" the Affordable Care Act but generally don't say with what. Democrats say they want to "fix" it but usually don't say how.

Benchmarking Utopia | National Review Online

nationalreview.com — In the Washington Times, think tanker Curtis Dubay offers a tough critique (the headline is misleadingly conciliatory) of the Lee-Rubio tax reform. I don't think that critique holds up.

Ernst and Personhood | National Review Online

nationalreview.com — Joni Ernst, the Republican Senate candidate in Iowa, has been criticized both for backing a proposed amendment to the state constitution on personhood and for backtracking on it. In the past she has suggested that the amendment would have protected unborn life.
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Oct 30, 2014

RT @NateSilver538: If networks are able to call Senate for Republicans on Nov. 4/5, they're likely eventually headed to 53-55 seats: 53eig.ht/1tlVSZq

Oct 30, 2014

RT @jonathanchait: @RameshPonnuru That's the point I drive toward at the end. 1960s divisions were as deep or deeper, but they weren't partisan.

Oct 30, 2014

Whether a spouse (or kid's spouse) thinks raising the minimum wage destroys a lot of jobs, on the other hand, is no big deal to most people.

Oct 30, 2014

Main issue IMO is that party is now a proxy for social and religious views.

Oct 30, 2014

RT @mlcalderone: WaPo named ex-WH volunteer cleared of prostitution charge, while key source for the story allegedly hired prostitute: huff.to/1zL5YsU

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