Synopsis In this week's programme: Fire "at will"? The Beecroft Report has been stirring up controversy all week. But is there any evidence that the economy would be boosted if employers could fire their staff "at will", as Adrian Beecroft recommends? Professor John Van Reenan - director of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics - can't find much. Hard-working Greeks One version of the Euro crisis story has it that hard-working Germans are bailing out lazy Greeks. But in fact Greek workers put in far longer hours than their German counterparts. The maths of infidelity It's a very commonly-held belief that men are less faithful than women. But it takes two to tango. So can this be mathematically possible? Publication ... Continue reading →

There are two stories often told of hedge fund managers, and they’re pretty much diametrically opposed. In the popular imagination, such managers are risk junkies, putting on massive bets in the hope that they’ll have huge payoffs, making a fortune for their investors and even more so for themselves. But that’s not the story told to — and bought by — big institutional pension funds and insurance companies and endowments, who lap up stories of state-of-the-art risk management, carefully-calibrated hedges, aggressively maximized Sharpe ratios, and returns which not only beat the stock market but do so with significantly lower volatility along the way. So which is true? Read Lawrence Delevingne’s account of how Michael Geismar gambled away his time at the SALT conference in Las ... Continue reading →

This blog will aim to provide timely commentary on economic policy issues, especially my particular interests - labour markets, immigration, and the debate about fiscal policy. For NIESR's research in depth, see links immediately below. The "Treasury View" refers to the position taken by Treasury officials during the Great Depression that fiscal policy has no effect on the total amount of economic activity. Doesn't imply I disagree with today's Treasury about everything.. Continue reading →

Chris Giles' FT piece here argues essentially that the political debate focuses too much on fiscal policy; and that given the uncertainty about the impacts past and future, of fiscal policy, economists should refrain from taking sides in this debate. I think that while there is much in Chris' piece that I agree with, ultimately his conclusions are confused at best, and damaging at worst. I shall make extensive reference to his points below, but I don't want to misrepresent him, so please do read his piece first!Chris begins by attacking politicians (Messrs. Cameron and Balls) for talking nonsense about the impact of the deficit. Well, hold the front page. I suspect that everyone who reads both his columns and this blog (yes, that's you ... Continue reading →