Risks have reduced in the last quarter. The Economic Cycle model is showing that Economic Expansion conditions are accelerating and Late Cycle conditions are no longer the dominant force. It is hard to know how long this Economic Expansion phase can retain its strength, but we are now likely looking at a second wind for the US economic cycle. The Recession Probability model has actually decreased, a very positive signal.
As we end the year, it’s a perfect time to look back at the financial markets and examine their ups and downs. Hopefully, we can pick up a couple lessons for the future. Sure, I’ve written market forecasts are dangerous, but explaining what’s behind investment performance can be just as perilous. Admittedly, if I had a crystal ball and knew that North Korea would be increasing its nuclear capabilities, I may have chosen a different international strategy.
1. “What will the stock market do over the next year?”This comes in various flavors, but much of the time it’s about whether a correction or plunge is likely. Regardless of how the question is phrased, my response is always the same: “I don’t know.” I charge clients a hefty hourly rate to tell them that I don’t know the future, and it’s the best single piece of advice I give. No one knows what the market will do or when the next nosedive will occur.
Muck Rack makes it simple to find people, tweets, or articles that mention any name, keyword, company, hashtag etc. We've compiled this guide to help you make the most of your search.
Selecting a term
Start searching tweets, articles from media outlets, articles mentioned in tweets, journalists'
names, titles and bios with some suggested searches:
Companies or Topics (e.g. iPhone, Microsoft)
Phrases (e.g. "cloud computing") — use quotes to keep the terms together
Twitter handles (e.g. @username) — returns those who have mentioned or replied to
Names (e.g. "David Pogue")
Hashtags (e.g. #sxsw, #london2012)
Bio details (e.g. vegan, Olympics, father)
Muck Rack's Advanced Search allows for many boolean operators.
Find results that mention multiple specified terms, use AND or
+. For example, ensure each result contains both Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg by
searching Musk AND Zuckerberg or Musk + Zuckerberg.
Use the operators OR or , to broaden your search when you'd like either of
multiple terms to appear in results. (This is the default behavior of our search when no operators
are used). For example, results will contain either cake or cookie by searching cake OR cookie or cake,cookie
Use NOT or - to subtract results from your search. For
example, searching Disney will yield results about the Walt Disney Company as well as Walt Disney
World Resort. To exclude mentions of Disney World, search for Disney -World or Disney
When using one of these operators with a phrase, enclose it in quotation marks. For example, you can
find results about smartphones excluding Apple's iPhone 4S by searching smartphone -"iPhone
Exact case matching or punctuation
If you're searching for a brand name or keyword that relies on specific punctuation marks or capitalization, you can
find results that match your exact query by adding matchcase: before the keyword you're searching for, like matchcase:E*TRADE .
Use parentheses to separate multiple
boolean phrases. For example, to find journalists talking about having fun in Disney World or
Disneyland, search for ("disney world" OR disneyland) AND fun.
An asterisk can be used to search for any variation of a root word truncated by the asterisk. For example, searching for admin* will return results for administrator, administration, administer, administered, etc.
A near operator is an AND operator where you can control the distance between the words. You can vary the distance the near operation uses by adding a forward slash and number (between 0-99) such as strawberries NEAR/10 "whipped cream", which means the strawberries must exist within 10 words of "whipped cream".