Your Tuesday news day

"I want to believe #PunxsutawneyPhil," admits USA Today's Donna Leinwand Leger, sharing the news from Pennsylvania that everyone's favorite furry forecaster predicts an early spring (at 9,500+ shares right now). "Go, groundhog!" reacts Tom Heiser with the Courier-Journal. Then again, here's USA Today in another piece, ready to burst our bubble already by asking how accurate is Punxsutawney Phil? "Can you really trust a groundhog?" pointedly asks Daisy Maxey at the Wall Street Journal. Well, apparently not, because it turns out Sir Walter Wally has been wrong more than right. Which technically puts him in the same corner as Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy.

But enough of that, because there's major politics afoot. At last night's Iowa caucus, a second-place finish pierced Donald Trump’s mystique while Ted Cruz came out on top after investing plenty of time and energy there. "What Cruz did right: he started early. He built the relationships. He built the organization," observes Washington Post's Robert Costa. "Donald Trump - golf course builder, real estate magnate and TV star - has new title that's unfamiliar: loser," tweets Maggie Haberman, re-writing her lede for Twitter. "I don’t think @realDonaldTrump is going to like this @nytimes lede," points out Oliver Darcy at The Blaze. Meanwhile, in the Democratic race, Bernie Sanders managed to turn the Clinton coronation into a real race. "I don't think @BernieSanders has a long shelf life ... but he's making it interesting," concludes David D. Haynes at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. At the New York Times,  Nate Cohn similarly argues that the "virtual tie" in Iowa helps Hillary more than it does Bernie. "Sanders did well where he had advantages but @nate_cohn says advantages wane as states get less white, less liberal," explains NYT's Jonathan Weisman. And then there's the fact that sometimes, Iowa Democrats award caucus delegates with a coin flip.

In breaking news, there are reports of an explosion on board an A321 just minutes after taking off from Mogadishu, while European Council president Donald Tusk unveiled a proposal for a new settlement for the United Kingdom within the European Union. "To be, or not to be together, that is the question," Tusk tweets. Also, the FBI just joined the Flint drinking water investigation. "List of agencies on case that investigate criminal wrongdoing grows," notes USA Today's Alison Young.

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