ACLED

The political and security situation in Tigray is entering a new phase. In May 2026, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) reinstated the Tigray regional government that was in place before the 2020 war and began mobilizing and forcibly conscripting in Tigray. In August, the violent conflict between the TPLF and the government started.

On 23 September, the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), seized control of airports in Mekelle, Aksum, and Shire in Tigray (see map). Armed clashes have begun along the Kobo-Tumuga direction between the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) troops and joint forces of TDF and the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM), according to ACLED local sources.

In early September, Kenya witnessed increased violence targeting foreign hawkers and small-scale traders, especially Burundian nationals in the country. The violence follows a presidential directive on 2 September ordering foreign nationals operating small-scale businesses without proper work permits and licenses to cease operations within five days.

Reports of a three month ceasefire between the Nigerian government and Boko Haram have raised questions about whether a sustained reduction in violence could signal a broader shift in the conflict. The reported truce, said to have begun in June following negotiations over the release of 360 civilians abducted from Ngoshe, has not been publicly confirmed by the Nigerian government.

For the second consecutive week, Guatemala is facing a series of protests against rising fuel prices, this time announced not only by transport workers and taxi drivers, but also the 48 Cantones de Totonicapán indigenous organization.

PKK disarmament is likely to redirect personnel and resources toward the PJAK Turkey formalized the PKK/KCK disarmament process through Law 7595, which was adopted on 10 August and has been in force since 18 August. The law covers all formations connected to the PKK and KCK. Although the law does not name the PJAK, Ankara has explicitly said that the wider disarmament process should include the group’s dissolution.

Peter Bofin, Senior Analyst for Southeast Africa at ACLED, said: “Over the past couple of years, Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) has been undertaking sorties to Nampula province in the south and, less frequently, to Niassa province to the west. This is the first time they’ve been in Niassa since May 2025, and only their second significant incursion since the insurgency began in late 2017. “At this point, we know that at least three people were kidnapped. We don’t know their nationality.

Heni Nsaibia, West Africa Senior Analyst at ACLED, said: “The failed mutiny by Niger’s soldiers in Niamey on 28–29 August has exposed serious divisions within Niger's armed forces. The regime ultimately relied on support from Russia's Africa Corps to put down the mutiny, while Algeria demonstrated its backing by sending four Su-30 fighter jets and an air-to-air refuelling tanker to Niamey at Niger's request on 30 August.

Author Regional Expert, East Africa Jalale Getachew Birru, Senior Analyst for West Africa at ACLED said, “Marking one month since the resumption of hostilities between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the conflict's current trajectory shows a more localized footprint than the devastating, widespread clashes observed in 2020-2022, which affected multiple regions.

Fighting between the SPLM-N al-Hilu faction and an SPLM-N faction from the Atoro clan has continued despite a ceasefire initiative announced by RSF leader Hemditi on 19 August. The al-Hilu faction didn’t commit to the ceasefire and continued its attacks and shelling on 10 Atoro villages, where at least 27 civilians were killed, and hundreds of civilians were displaced between 20 and 26 August.