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Thursday’s announcement of the ceasefire in Lebanon brought some relief to the 20% of Lebanon’s population that is currently displaced by the conflict. Whether or not they’ll actually be able to return home is another matter entirely.

Reprinted from John’s Substack: On 12 April 2026, I was on the “Switzerland” podcast with Josh Landis, one of the world’s leading experts on Syria, and the host Tom Switzer. In the wake of the failed negotiations in Islamabad, President Trump announced that the US was going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which means that Iranian oil will no longer flow out of the Persian Gulf into world oil markets. No more oil profits for Tehran.

Leaked details from the recent high-level marathon in Islamabad, a grueling 21-hour session between U.S. and Iranian delegations reveal more than just a failure to communicate. It marks a profound strategic deadlock.

A ceasefire in Lebanon was announced on Thursday by US President Donald Trump, but its reality tells a very different story. The ceasefire was not the product of American diplomacy, nor Israeli strategic calculation. It was imposed – largely as a result of sustained Iranian pressure. Washington, Tel Aviv, and their allies – including some within Lebanon itself – will continue to deny this reality.

With a major earthquake, a tsunami will follow and then the full damage. It’s the same with the Iran War. As transmission channels kick in, the energy crisis is morphing into a severe and persistent shock, especially in the Global South. At the peak of the crisis, oil surged to $110–116/bbl. But it remains volatile at $90–100 after ceasefire pause. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) took an even harder hit. Oil price surged more than 50%, but LNG soared as much as 143% – a 3-year high.

Reprinted with permission from The Realist Review. There is a saying often repeated in circles critical of the foreign policy establishment: “Whoever gets elected, you always get John McCain”. You’re especially likely to hear it when a president turns into a war hawk after explicitly campaigning against regime change, military adventure, and even entangling alliances.

“Today, more than 80% of the Democratic caucus stood with the American people and voted to block US military aid to Netanyahu and his horrific, illegal wars,” said Sanders. by | Apr 15, 2026 | News | US senators on Wednesday voted down a pair of resolutions aimed at blocking US bomb and bulldozer sales to Israel as it continues its genocidal war on Gaza and devastating bombardment and mass displacement in Lebanon. Upper chamber lawmakers voted 59-40 against advancing SJ Res.

The President is committing lives and treasure to war. Congress has not authorized it. And no citizen has any legal standing to object. That is not a constitutional republic operating as designed. It is one operating as though the founding document does not mean what it says. A Distinction the Courts Refuse to Make Not every presidential use of military force is unconstitutional. The commander-in-chief power is real.

Reprinted from John’s Substack: On 14 April 2026, I was on “Judging Freedom” talking with Judge Napolitano about Iran. My central point to the judge was that Trump is in no position to work out a deal with Iran that settles the ongoing war in a meaningful way. The reason is simple: Israel has no interest in a ceasefire, much less an agreement that satisfies any of Iran’s demands, especially its demand that it maintain the capability to enrich uranium.

Direct, face-to-face talks were held today between Israeli and Lebanese Ambassadors. The talks are historic, at least in the sense that direct talks between the two nations are exceedingly rare, but little was expected of them, and even less seems to have come out of them.