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The arbitrage opportunity in an event contract you noticed probably isn’t real. The price gap might exist, but once you factor in the costs of closing both sides on two platforms, dealing with different order books, and having your money tied up for weeks until settlement, the advantage usually disappears. This isn’t a guide to finding live arbs. It’s a guide to figuring out whether the one you think you’ve found is worth acting on.

In January 2026, a US Army Master Sergeant named Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly walked away with $400,000 from a prediction market. He’d bet on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. He knew it was coming because he helped plan it. That’s the story that broke the dam. Lesser-known stories are also cropping up, including the Google software engineer who allegedly made around $1.2 million by using internal data to make a batch of trades on Polymarket.

Polymarket handled more than $3.6 billion just on the 2024 US presidential election. In September 2024, Kalshi won a federal court case allowing it to offer political event contracts in the US, despite objections from the CFTC. Some of this volume, along with growing interest, comes from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia, where Islamic finance is the standard, not a specialty. This naturally leads to the question: Are prediction markets allowed or not for Muslim traders?

If you’ve ever traded binary options, your first look at a prediction market, also known as an ‘event contract’, will feel oddly familiar. The question is ‘yes’ or ‘no’. The payout is fixed. The clock is ticking. You either get it right or you lose your stake. That’s not a coincidence. ‘Event contract’ is the term that US regulators and a new wave of fintech platforms prefer. The CFTC uses it. Kalshi and Polymarket both use it.

Nadex, long known as the leading CFTC‑regulated venue for retail binary options and event contracts in the US, was folded into Crypto.com in December 2025, following its earlier acquisition in 2022, with the standalone Nadex platform retired and trading shifted to the Crypto.com app via Crypto.com Deriv North America (CDNA).

Videforex is an offshore broker offering 150+ binary assets across forex, stocks, indices, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. It also advertises payouts of up to about 95% on specific OTC (over-the-counter) currency pairs. The in-house web platform adds copy trading, bonuses, contests, and 24/7 live chat, targeting fast-paced, beginner-friendly trading. However, the broker sits outside mainstream regulatory frameworks, so anyone considering an account should conduct careful due diligence.

If you like your trades fast and decisive, zero days to expiration (0DTE) options and binary options are about as high-adrenaline as it gets. Both give you a shot at big returns in a short space of time, sometimes just minutes, but they work in completely different ways. I’ve spent time using both, testing 0DTE trades during peak U.S. sessions and comparing them to short-term binary contracts. The 0DTE experience feels closer to day trading futures than anything in the binary space.

Cryptocurrency binary options offer simple up-or-down contracts for active traders who want exposure to Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other major coins without dealing with wallets, gas fees, or exchange issues. You’re making a single decision: will the price of a particular digital currency be higher or lower at expiry?