Cautious Optimism

Friday. What a week, yeah? Worry not, stocks are still rising, the Iran War is somewhere off its kinetic peak, and we’re drowning in new AI models. Today, we’re diving into the state of the memory ecosystem, a few key executive departures, AI costs, and why everyone wants to eat Microsoft’s productivity revenue. To work! — Alex Thinking Machines Lab?

Thursday. Are we at war again? No one knows! Stocks are treating the latest military strikes as transient; oil prices are proving stickier. Regardless, everyone’s second-favorite critical trade constriction (shout-out to the Strait of Malacca) is nowhere near prior shipping rates. So, the blockade is still in force, even if unofficially. But we’re not here to despair about self-inflicted wounds.

Wednesday. I’m hosting a venture capital roundtable for TWiST today, so check your podcast feeds this evening for the latest. Today, we’re looking at tech valuations, the latest AI models from OpenAI and SpaceXAI, a little startup deal that made us smile, and the return of Microsoft’s AI game.

Tuesday. Today we’re diving into the possible end of open-weight AI models from China, startup discounts, consciousness, and why being public would solve so very many problems in startup-land today. To work! — Alex The global demand for data? … Nvidia’s AI model market share … the War with Iran … enterprise token demand? … vertical AI … hindsight … app-store-level age verification … French robots … dilution at Rivian … Closed-source Chinese models?

Welcome to Cautious Optimism, a newsletter on tech, business, and power. Modestly upbeat. Monday. Welcome back. Today, we’re talking Meta selling compute, the distrust of AI labs, GDP and the Vice President, and the latest from the tech-right.

Welcome to Cautious Optimism, a newsletter on tech, business, and power. Modestly upbeat. Thursday. Checking yesterday’s analytics, it appears that the Holiday Week is truly upon us! That in mind, we’re going to move with great focus today. (If you are reading this from outside the United States, we’re heading into the July 4th celebration, which is a big deal domestically. Lots of people take time off.) CO is off tomorrow. On the docket?

Welcome to Cautious Optimism, a newsletter on tech, business, and power. Modestly upbeat. Wednesday. Today, we’re talking about Bending Spoons and Lime‘s IPOs; Etched’s debut, Meta turning into a neocloud, and whether Anthropic got screwed. To work! — Alex Privacy-first AI services … corruption and office abuse … letting staff cash out early … smuggling chips to China … British spine … Claude Sonnet 5 … hearts and minds … AI discounts … fusion power?

Welcome to Cautious Optimism, a newsletter on tech, business, and power. Modestly upbeat. Tuesday. Here’s something to chew on: Tech stocks have rallied sharply this year, but Microsoft and Meta are dragging the sector down. Shares of Microsoft are off around 22% this year, for example, while Meta has shed 13.5%. Of the vaunted Mag7, the largest gain posted this year comes via Alphabet, which is up 11.4%. Not much compared to the 18% gain the Nasdaq 100 racked up in the first half of the year.

Welcome to Cautious Optimism, a newsletter on tech, business, and power. Modestly upbeat. Monday. The US-Iran war is on hold, again. Shipping slowed in the Strait of Hormuz after attacks left trade crippled again; thankfully, oil prices aren’t spiking. Closer to home, we’re staring down the barrel of online age verification, which could rewrite how we use the Internet. And it’s the last few days of the second quarter, which means it’s very nearly earnings season.

Welcome to Cautious Optimism, a newsletter on tech, business, and power. Modestly upbeat. Friday. Rest in peace, Om Malik, the journalist and investor who I first met in the pages of Business 2.0 (a magazine that helped spark my interest in startups). I only got to know Om a little, but his reputation for kindness and intelligence speaks for itself. A real loss. Love to his family. Stocks fell overnight around the world, especially in South Korea, China and Japan.