Chrisman Commentary

“America needs more homes.” The diagnosis is so widely accepted that it has become almost reflexive, with conversations across the industry typically centering on need for builders to increase production, municipalities to accelerate approvals, policymakers to reduce barriers, and investors to continue supporting development.

Today's episode includes a discussion on the various mergers and acquisitions we are seeing around the mortgage and real estate industries. Plus, Robbie sits down for an interview with TD Bank’s Scott Lindner on the shift in how first-time buyers are approaching homeownership, as affordability challenges continue to reshape expectations, timelines and financial preparation. The episode closes with a look ahead to how Federal Reserve Chair Warsh may reshape the central bank in his image.

While M&A continues (the latest example being Berkshire Hathaway buying homebuilder Taylor Morrison for $8.5 billion!), I find myself in San Juan Capistrano at the Insellerate Experience Summit but keeping an eye out for returning swallows. Lenders are keeping an eye out for loans: Although lenders generally had a good April and May, pipelines for June fundings and beyond appear to be down significantly. Insellerate’s Summit is focused on AI and tech.

The Fed can’t fix tomato prices, up 40 percent in the last year due to tariffs and shipping prices, and that is tough on consumers and growers alike. If you think that times are tough for lenders, given the war in Iran, oil prices, inflation, and interest rates, try the flower biz. 1-800-Flowers saw revenue decline 11.6 percent in the quarter ending in March, posting a net loss of $100.1 million.

I think most of us feel beaten over the head with the topic of AI in every conference, meeting, or blog post. But the way consumers are using AI is telling us about a bigger shift happening, one that exposes a larger symptom of a problem we may be ignoring despite the constant conversation. I recently spent a week at a philosophy conference, listening to academics and practitioners across fields (medicine, education, sports, finance) circle back to the same conversation we’re all having.

Doctor: “Sir, I have some bad news, I’m afraid your DNA is backwards.” Me: “and?” If you don’t like bad news, skip this opening paragraph. If you want some reality, read on. First off, U.S. home foreclosures are accelerating: filings rose 26 percent year-over-year in Q1 2026, to roughly 119k, the highest in six years. It’s expensive to own a home! The last time they hit this level (early 2020), government relief programs and pandemic stimulus caused them to decline.

Mortgage has always been a relationship business, but it has also always been a performance business. Markets move in real time, capital flows react instantly, and every basis point matters. Few people understand that balancing act better than Michael Tannenbaum, the CEO of Figure and one of the more closely watched executives in housing finance right now.

Here’s something to ruminate on: “No one ever announces when it's their first rodeo.” What is something that small and mid-sized lenders can’t offer? Chase rolled out a program for borrowers to earn 100,000 Chase Points.

How ‘bout this one: A firefighter went to the college graduation ceremony for a baby he helped deliver many years ago. Loan originators can be involved in many life events of their clients as well, as the months and years roll on, something that a software program can’t do. They’re also in a great position to explain the nuances of the summer home buying season to clients. They know that rates aren’t the only thing making homes unaffordable.