Decision Desk - HQ

How about a little Massachusetts mayhem to start September?The solidly blue Bay State holds its primary election today, which features many major Democratic races. Ideological and generational clashes abound, most notably the U.S. Senate matchup between Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Seth Moulton.

Sen. Ed Markey (left) faces Rep. Seth Moulton (right) in Massachusetts’s Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Unlike many Democratic primary contests this cycle, the older candidate (Markey) is running as the more progressive choice compared with the younger option (Moulton). (Images via NASA and Moulton campaign) Today’s newsletter features: Introducing VOTES PRO: Decision Desk HQ has many new features on our VOTES election portal for VOTES PRO subscribers.

Don’t look now, but the battle for the Senate is nearly a pure toss-up. In Decision Desk HQ’s midterm election forecast, Republicans now have a 52% chance of winning a majority, while Democrats have a 48% shot — the narrowest gap between the parties’ chances since early June. Statistically, this is not substantively different from a coin flip.

Democrats have closed the gap in Decision Desk HQ’s Senate forecast. Their chances have particularly been boosted by strong polls in red-leaning states like Ohio, Alaska, Texas, and Iowa. But is there reason to doubt some of this positive polling news for Democrats? To dig into that question, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Patrick Ruffini, a founding partner at the Republican firm Echelon Insights.

On Aug. 25, President Donald Trump’s endorsed candidates won South Carolina’s special Republican primary runoff for Senate and Oklahoma’s Republican primary runoff for governor. (Picture of Trump by Gage Skidmore via Flickr) Tuesday was a good night for President Donald Trump. Amid a storm of political trouble, Trump experienced a small ray of sunshine when a pair of his endorsed candidates won primary runoffs in red states. In South Carolina, Trump’s direct interventions helped appointed Sen.

Trump’s endorsement will get put to the testin South Carolina tonight. His endorsed candidate, appointed Sen. Darline Graham, faces Rep. Ralph Norman in a special Republican primary runoff for Senate to fill the vacant general election nomination slot left behind by the late Sen. Lindsey Graham.

Rep. Ralph Norman faces appointed Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina’s special Republican primary runoff on Aug. 25. The winner will replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham as the GOP nominee in the state’s 2026 U.S. Senate race. (Images via campaigns) Today’s newsletter features: Alaska Update: Checking in on the top-four primary results from a slower-counting, mail-ballot heavy state. The Frontrunner: In Tuesday’s special GOP primary runoff, South Carolina Sen.

With Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’s retirement, Michigan’s seat is a critical piece of the U.S. Senate math in 2026. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, which means Democrats need a net gain of four seats (Vice President JD Vance would break 50-50 ties for the GOP). But to achieve such gains, Democrats likely must avoid losing seats they control.

DDHQ friend Chris Cillizza, who runs So What on Substack, was nice enough to have two members of the DDHQ team on a Substack Live conversation about our 2026 election forecast. Chris was joined by Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley and Data Science Fellow Maddisen Murrell to talk about the big picture and some specific U.S. Senate and U.S. House races.

State Rep. Angie Nixon pulled off an upset in Florida’s Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, while U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds won Florida’s Republican primary for governor. Both seek to make history as either the first Black senator or governor in Florida’s history. Thank you, Florida. For always being so fast at counting votes. The Sunshine State led the way on Tuesday with a huge number of high-profile primaries, including races for governor, U.S. Senate, and numerous U.S. House seats.