Decision Desk - HQ

On Wednesday, Decision Desk HQ released its 2026 election forecast for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives! For the rest of this election season, we will be using the Polling Memo to review not only where our polling averages stand, but also to keep you up to date on what the forecast suggests is most likely to happen in November. Right now, Democrats are slightly favored in the House, with about a 3 in 5 chance of flipping the Republican-held chamber.

Decision Desk HQ Podcast Every day is Election Day. Our weekly show talks votes, polls, trends, campaigns, and more. A show by election nerds for fellow election nerds, novices, and everyone in between. Every day is Election Day. Our weekly show talks votes, polls, trends, campaigns, and more. A show by election nerds for fellow election nerds, novices, and everyone in between.

Today’s newsletter features: The Frontrunner (Special Edition): Introducing Decision Desk HQ’s 2026 election forecast, including overall takeaways and the situation in the U.S. House of Representatives. (Part 1 of 2) Around the Corner: Upcoming elections we’re tracking at DDHQ. Quick summary: Democrats are somewhat favored to capture the U.S. House of Representatives and Republicans are slight favorites to keep the U.S. Senate.

Maine Democrats and South Carolina Republicans have to find replacement nominees in their U.S. Senate contests due to the withdrawal of Graham Platner (left) and death of Sen. Lindsey Graham (right), respectively. Today’s newsletter features: Opening Bell: Must-read items about elections and politics.

On Wednesday evening, Graham Platner announced that he was suspending his campaign for U.S. Senate in Maine ahead of a July 13 deadline to withdraw as the Democratic nominee against Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Platner’s move followed allegations that he sexually assaulted a woman he once dated, a revelation that became a final dagger for his already-damaged candidacy.

The battle to control the Senate looks very competitive four months out from the 2026 midterm elections. Today’s newsletter features: Opening Bell: Must-read items about elections and politics. The Frontrunner: Where polls stand in the eight most critical U.S. Senate races. Around the Corner: Upcoming elections we’re tracking at DDHQ. Must-read items about elections and politics.

Democratic socialist Melat Kiros (left) defeated longtime Rep. Diana DeGette (right) in the Democratic primary for Colorado’s solidly blue 1st District around Denver. Forget “Rocky Mountain High.” More like, “Rocky Mountain Red.” That was the big story of the night in Colorado, which held its regular primary elections on June 30. In the Democratic primary for the deep-blue, Denver-based 1st District, democratic socialist Melat Kiros ousted liberal Rep. Diana DeGette.

Tonight, we go mile high for some serious primary action! The big focus is Colorado, especially the Democratic primary in the Denver-based 1st Congressional District. There, Rep. Diana DeGette faces a serious challenge from democratic socialist Melat Kiros. This could be the next big victory for the Left, but we’ll have to see. Colorado also has major Democratic primaries for governor, U.S. Senate, and the 8th Congressional District.

Louisiana Roundup: Rep. Julia Letlow won Saturday’s primary runoff for U.S. Senate in Louisiana, positioning her to become the red state’s next senator. The Frontrunner: Four Democratic primaries in Colorado are the main electoral focus on Tuesday. Tomorrow night, make sure to watch our livestream coverage of Colorado’s June 30 primary action starting at 9 p.m. Eastern. You can watch on X, YouTube, or Substack. Around the Corner: Upcoming elections we’re tracking at DDHQ.

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (left) is the Democratic challenger to appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted (right) in Ohio’s pivotal U.S. Senate race. (Images via campaigns) In 2024, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio narrowly lost reelection. Now-Sen. Bernie Moreno, Brown’s Republican opponent, defeated the longtime incumbent by 3.6 percentage points, 50.1%-46.5%. But as it turned out, Brown wasn’t done.