Dror Poleg Blog

Almost Happy New Year! To help me think about 2026, an old thread I wrote on Twitter suddenly went viral again. It was already popular when I originally posted it in December 2022, a few weeks after the launch of ChatGPT. It resonates even more now, when the AI bubble-boom is at its height. Below is a refinement of that original thread, with additional thoughts based on what we know now.

Below are books I read and enjoyed this year, not necessarily for the first time. The list includes books I took many notes on, meaning I found them worthwhile. I included affiliate links to Amazon in case you'd like to explore further. As an affiliate, I earn a small commission on any book sold. While we're talking about books: I recently signed a deal with Simon & Schuster to publish my next one. My editor is the great Eamon Dolan, and the working title is Nonlinear. What is the book about?

Last month, Tamara and I welcomed our third child, a new brother to our daughter and son. Please bear with the intermittent publishing schedule as my brain slowly returns to normal operation. I look forward to seeing some of you in Napa and Oslo in the coming weeks, as well as in a few private events in between. I would love to add a stop to my European trip in late October — get in touch if you have an event in mind for the week of October 20th.

Earlier this month, I chatted with Andrew Keen on how artificial intelligence will affect human work, energy demand, and the structure of society. Andrew is the author of multiple books about technology, including How to Fix the Future and The Cult of the Amateur. Over the years, Andrew has also founded and worked at several startups and taught history and political science at multiple American universities. Our chat was lively, short, and optimistic.

Two newsletters in two days? I am publishing intermittently while waiting for the birth of our third child (and for some announcements about my upcoming book). I will have a more consistent publishing schedule from September. Meanwhile, the following post is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Are we in a bubble? There is simply no way of knowing anymore. In the past, most valuations were tied to tangible assets — machines, property, inventory.

Chungin “Roy” Lee was kicked out of Columbia University after he built an AI tool to help candidates cheat in job interviews. Columbia declined to corroborate the story, citing student privacy. What we do know is that after leaving Columbia, Lee proceeded to launch a new start-up, Cluely, that aims to help users "cheat on everything." The way it works is simple: The app sits on your computer and monitors your screen, speakers, and microphone.

There's an old joke among diamond dealers about a guy who always sold gems "at cost" yet somehow made a fortune. "How do you do it?" his friends asked. "I always buy below cost!" he replied. Private equity funds use a similar trick. But, sophisticated as they are, they take it a step or two further. Imagine buying something for $100, immediately claiming it's worth $150 simply because you own it, and then... charging your clients a fee for the $50 of profits you generated.

For the past fifty years, human labor was expensive, and software was cheap. Yet humans remained busy because software wasn't good enough to perform most human tasks. Today, discussions about the future of work assume software will become skilled enough—and remain abundant enough—to replace most human jobs. But there’s another possibility: software might become far more capable, yet simultaneously become scarce.

Murray Gell-Mann won a Nobel Prize for his work on the interaction between the physical world's fundamental building blocks. These tiny particles can be combined to create different materials. What kind of combinations are possible? Gell-Mann quipped that "Everything not forbidden is compulsory." That quip is now known as the "Totalitarian Principle" of quantum mechanics.

I first published this piece in 2022. I re-publish it as the NBA Playoffs begin, as a reminder to myself and my readers. I don't think I've ever written about basketball. But it's something I spend quite a lot of time thinking about. God forbid, I don't play basketball myself — I just watch, read, and think. We're in the midst of the fairest of all basketball seasons. The NBA Playoffs starting, following a year in which the league was as open and unpredictable as it has ever been.