Eurointelligence

One of Henry Kissinger’s best-known and most controversial quips, about the Iran-Iraq war, was that it was a pity both sides couldn't lose. Kissinger has a reputation as a cynical but ultimately clear-sighted strategist, but on this point, he is definitely wrong. Discourse about geopolitics is replete with various analogies to zero-sum games – chess, poker, maybe even backgammon. But it isn’t always so. It is very possible to have win-win situations, and perhaps even more so to have lose-lose ones.

Europe are masters in agreeing roadmaps, that is strategic planning tools to outline objectives and milestones for whatever they want to try to achieve. It is essential for coordinating policies across 27 member states and guiding implementation over time. The list of roadmaps seems endless. There is for example the EU Defence Readiness 2030 Roadmap, the Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe on Security.

The total number of data available in 2010 was 2 zetabytes – or 2 trillion gigabytes. This year, this number is forecast to up to 181 ZB. By 2030 we might be in the yottabyte, and soon after we will be running out of Greek letters. The only thing I can think of capable of matching the growth of available data, is the degree of bias they generate. Have you ever wondered why central banks have such an appalling forecasting record? This is not due to the lack of data.

When Chinese and American tourists are trying to figure out where to visit in Europe, the small, nondescript German city of Salzgitter is not exactly at the top of their lists. Located almost smack-dab in the middle of the country, barely anyone lived in Salzgitter until it became an industrial site in the late 1930s. Even today, only around 100,000 people call it home. Despite this, Salzgitter is a nerve centre for Europe’s most important industry.

What happens in France, stays in France. Whatever scandalous affair happens there, it is best to leave it in France. Like the many love affairs that were not meant to last. In politics too, France is often left on its own. About 200 years ago Spain, the Netherlands, Prussia, and Austria joining forces to combat the French revolution. The ideas of Egalité, Fraternité et Liberté had inspired many people across the globe.

There, I said it. When I land at Heathrow Airport, I might get arrested by the Metropolitan Police. I would not be surprised if the UK government had passed a law to declare this branch of statistical thinking illegal. Before I am going to explain what this means, and why I am what I am, it is perhaps best to take a step back. Regular readers will have often heard me complain about economic or pandemic models.

For most of modern European political history, Italy has been a political punchline, a byword for chaos and dysfunction. Italian governments would fall almost as quickly as they came about in the first place. A severe problem with public debt fed into this, both as a cause and consequence. Italy still has the largest debt burden, as a ratio of GDP, of any large EU country. A decade and a half ago, this flared up into a full-blown crisis.

"All life demands change, variety, contrast—else there is small zest to it." Mark Twain There is plenty of contrast, variety and change today in our societies. Even in geopolitics there are now choices to be made. Yet, it does not feel like a zesty harvest to us Europeans. Maybe change happened too suddenly, and too violently. First the lockdowns, then the wars in Europe’s neighbourhoods. Then Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Few expected these.

Why did left-leaning US newspapers not report on the murder of Iryna Zarutska, a Ukrainian refugee stabbed to death on a train in Charlotte, North Carolina? It is the same reason why German newspapers have imposed a news black-out on Israel’s war crimes in Gaza. Journalists are partisan actors – and always have been. Whatever team you are on, you focus on the crimes of the other side. Newspapers prefer to cover politically correct murders.