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Fed communication critical without rate move BOJ inflation outlook faces fresh test Hormuz risks compound yen headwinds AI hyperscaler weakness lifts carry trade unwind risk 165 looms overhead after textbook breakout The bullish breakout flagged in last week's outlook played out exactly as anticipated, sending USD/JPY to fresh multi-decade highs.

EUR/CHF breakout puts USD/CHF on watch Break above 0.8150 targets 0.8250 initially Given the euro area and Switzerland face many of the same energy security and terms of trade pressures, the breakout in EUR/CHF on Wednesday looks more technical than fundamental. With a major surprise from the ECB later today unlikely, and nothing of consequence on the Swiss or US economic calendars to trouble the scorers, it raises the question of whether USD/CHF could deliver a similar breakout.

Hawkish Fed pricing continues lifting front-end Treasury yields Haven demand adds another bullish tailwind Little on US calendar this week to derail bull case The US Dollar Index has broken out, fuelled by another sharp increase in hawkish Fed pricing ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

Yen ignores what should have been bullish news Tech earnings could matter more than economic data Traditional USD/JPY drivers losing influence Momentum, technicals still favour upside Broader narrative remains intact USD/JPY starts the week sitting just beneath the highest levels seen in decades. While the pair has struggled to break higher, the price action continues to tighten, raising the risk that the next meaningful move may be a breakout to fresh multi-decade highs.

GPIF proposal sparks capital repatriation hopes Long-dated JGBs lead powerful relief rally Imported inflation strengthens BOJ normalisation case USD/JPY nears trendline support Japanese assets rally on GPIF proposal Japanese assets are rallying after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government wants to encourage Japan's GPIF, the world's largest pension fund, to invest substantially more domestically.

SK Hynix has completed a landmark US stock market offering, giving American investors direct access to one of the world’s largest memory-chip manufacturers and a major supplier to the artificial intelligence industry. The South Korean company priced 177.9 million American depositary shares at $149 each, raising approximately $26.5 billion. The securities began trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol SKHY on July 10, 2026.

Manufacturing survey delivers blockbuster upside surprise RBNZ tightening cycle gains fresh credibility RBA rate expectations continue to unwind AUD/NZD technical breakdown gains momentum NZD/USD breakout shifts focus higher New Zealand may be on holiday, but the Kiwi dollar certainly wasn't on Thursday. It topped the G10 FX leaderboard after strong data reinforced the RBNZ's message from earlier this week that further rate hikes are likely.

China doubles down in AI race Hang Seng Tech nears key resistance Third time lucky for bulls? Resistance with a reputation A fortnight ago, I suggested Hang Seng Tech may have just delivered a near-term bottoming signal. While there have been plenty of false dawns for Chinese tech over the past year, the combination of improving price action and increasingly supportive news flow suggested it was at least worth paying attention to. Since then, buyers have delivered.

Sticky inflation expectations revive Fed hike fears Risk appetite deteriorates as tech stocks tumble Bearish engulfing pattern strengthens AUD/USD downside risks RBNZ, FOMC minutes headline today's event risk AUD/USD came under pressure on Tuesday as both of its dominant drivers moved against it. As things stand, the pair is behaving like a two-part front-end rates pricing, one-part risk appetite play.

Cable extends impressive corrective bounce Waller keeps inflation centre stage Markets continue to unwind Fed tightening bets Resistance now stands directly overhead Cable continues to motor higher, defying a macro backdrop that was broadly dollar-supportive on Monday. Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated that inflation remains the Fed's primary concern, while the latest ISM services PMI pointed to continued resilience in the world's largest economy.