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CHF/JPY downside stretch hits most extreme levels since 2018 Prior extreme episodes favoured stronger forward returns Hawkish BOJ repricing, record intervention and US support bolster yen Long-term support near 188.80 key for any bounce Waterfall mode CHF/JPY has gone into something akin to waterfall mode over the past week or so, something of a rare occurrence considering just how respectful the pair has been of known technical levels, as demonstrated on the chart below.

Treasury has already pledged to at least double long-end buybacks That would lift annualised capacity to around $144bn Gold, Bitcoin surged after the initial August announcement A materially larger figure could reignite dollar-debasement trade $10bn per operation looks unlikely given the volatility risk On Wednesday, the US Treasury looks set to announce just how big its expanded long-dated Treasury buyback operations will be, having already committed to at least doubling the maximum amount...

Gold, silver correlations with dollar near historical extremes DXY sits just above an important support zone US inflation next key risk event for markets Disorderly yen carry trade unwind remains a left-tail risk Gold and silver have essentially become a play on directional movements in the US dollar over the past month, and especially the past fortnight, with the strength of the inverse relationship pushing towards historical extremes.

AUD/USD breaks above 0.7200 to multi-month highs Yen strength helps soften the US dollar Aussie far more responsive to upside catalysts US CPI looms as the key breakout test AUD/USD has pushed firmly above the .7200 level to trade at its highest since early May, continuing to benefit from buoyant risk appetite, hawkish RBA pricing and continued weakness in the US dollar, particularly against Asian currency names.

EUR/USD remains driven by front-end rates ECB September hike fully priced, second heavily favoured by December US CPI, PPI may determine September Fed hike fate Key moving averages continue to contain EUR/USD EUR/USD remains very much a front-end rates play from a day-to-day directional perspective, putting emphasis on any data or events that can change the policy outlook for the ECB or Federal Reserve.

Suspected intervention helped drive USD/JPY sharply lower September BOJ hike now fully priced Payrolls revived September Fed hike expectations CPI and PPI dominate this week’s US calendar. USD/JPY moves remains tightly linked to US Treasury yields USD/JPY suffered its largest weekly loss since late July as we entered September, hit by relatively dovish remarks from senior Fed officials and possible intervention from the Bank of Japan on behalf of the Japanese government.

US financial conditions have eased in recent days Nasdaq has responded, rebounding into a resistance zone Persistent easing has historically delivered stronger forward returns Friday’s payrolls report may determine whether the bullish move extends We’ve seen a short-term easing in US financial conditions which has coincided with a rebound in the Nasdaq, leaving the index sitting just beneath a key technical resistance zone heading into Friday’s August payrolls report.

Suspected MOF intervention drives USD/JPY sharply lower. Williams and Waller cool September hike expectations. USD/JPY correlation with US yields has surged. Payrolls now loom as the key binary risk.

Australian economic surprises turn positive RBA September hike probability jumps to 76% EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD bears eye lower levels AUD/USD driven by US rates, risk appetite The Aussie dollar has benefited from recent strength in metals prices and a run of stronger-than-expected economic data, helping expectations for an RBA rate hike later this month build sharply. That has seen it outperform against the European crosses, pushing EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD towards range lows. AUD/USD is a different story.

USD/JPY breaks its August uptrend after a bearish reversal BOJ member Takata flags consecutive hikes, echoing Bessent JGBs bear flatten as front-end yields surge US jobs data may decide whether the move sticks USD/JPY has printed a bearish reversal candle on the four-hourly timeframe, followed by a break of the uptrend in place since August 20, with the move backed by a clear fundamental catalyst as BOJ officials continue to portray a far more hawkish outlook than what was seen earlier in the...