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Global resilience despite war, tariffs, inflation, geopolitical fragm Our original Global Investment Outlook: 2026 and Beyond was built around three cyclical themes – broadening, steepening, and weakening – and three longer-term forces shaping investor portfolios: intelligence; private markets; and big government. Midway through 2026, we think that framework still provides a useful starting point, but the balance of risks has changed.

Avoid complacency, look for opportunities in volatility The first half of the year had a little of everything. We have all come to expect the unexpected under President Trump, but the events that have unfolded caught even the most cynical off guard. Heading into 2026, one of the consensus calls was that the U.S. Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would cut interest rates.

Time to revisit hedging approach to USD-denominated assets? Big moves are becoming the norm in this market, and currency is no exception. Our Canadian dollar (CAD) has traded down to 70 cents on the dollar. This is only a penny or two away from the extreme lows of Covid (when everyone was hiding in USD/Treasuries) and Tariff Day (remember when tariffs were going to push Canada into a bone crushing recession?). Too extreme? Let’s bring it in.

The Fed sneezes, the BoC catches a cold It’s done. Kevin Warsh was sworn in on May 22 as the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve, after a Senate vote of 54 to 45, the narrowest in modern history. A single Democrat, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, crossed party lines. In Canada, the news was treated as wire-copy filler with no real analysis of what a changing of the guard at the most powerful central bank in the world may mean for us.

Invest now…or wait? The biggest stock market story of June, and perhaps of the year, was the initial public offering of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NSD: SPCX) shares. It was the biggest IPO ever with about 500 million shares traded. The stock ended its first day at $160.91 (figures in U.S. dollars), sending the company’s value above $2 trillion. It was recently trading around $152.

No rate consensus as changing data keeps bankers on edge The decision by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Maklem to leave short-term interest rates unchanged in mid-June was not unexpected, although he made it clear that he and the Board of Governors stood ready to either raise or lower the 2.25% short-term rate depending upon how the data developed.

AI-related revenues transforming into unusually strong profits Are we in an AI bubble? We think the answer depends on whether AI can turn today’s scarcity into tomorrow’s abundance. Markets are increasingly pricing that outcome, expecting AI to lift productivity and growth enough to sustain today’s extraordinary earnings. Whether those earnings can endure – not where valuations sit relative to history – is key. Still-elevated margins suggest they can.

iShares offering focuses on quality Back in the 1990s, hardly anyone had heard of ETFs. Mutual funds were far and away the most popular choice for investors who preferred safety in numbers over owning individual stocks. Despite some years of net redemptions, mutual funds are still the leaders in terms of assets under management (AUM), at $2.53 trillion. That’s because they are the core investments for most employer pension plans. But ETFs continue to grow at a rapid rate.

Forum des Fonds Accueil Essayez Forum des Fonds Premium Gratuitement pour un durée de 30 jours! Accèder à Listes de suivi illimitées Filtrages de recherche avancé Comparaisons des fonds Scénarios de portefeuille Rapports PDF personnalisables Rééquilibreur de portefeuille nouveau Par David Kletz Publié le 07-07-2026 Elle a été reportée Les marchés boursiers mondiaux ont poursuivi leur progression malgré une période mouvementée cette année.

It has been deferred Global equity markets have pushed higher through a turbulent stretch this year. However, the investment case is becoming more two-sided. Determining what is “in the price” already (and what isn’t) has become difficult to delineate during a period of rapid change. Investor complacency also remains in focus. Are the risks accumulating beneath the surface receiving the scrutiny they deserve? Core inflation has proven more persistent than central bank models anticipated.