Gulf States Insights

As the uncertainty over the US-Iran deal continues, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is forging ahead with an ambitious plan to decouple its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. A new Bloomberg interview with the UAE’s Minister of Foreign Trade, Dr Thani Al Zeyoudi, indicates the UAE’s plans go much further than an already-announced second oil pipeline that will bypass the Strait of Hormuz and exit at Fujairah, on the UAE’s eastern coast.

The ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran was formally signed on Wednesday - and the text of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has been officially released. The official version largely confirms leaked drafts that have been circulating in the media over the last few days, with only a few small differences. It’s worth reading the 14-point agreement in full, such as here at CNN.

The early reaction from the Gulf to the US-Iran peace deal is in - and it’s mixed. The agreement between the US and Iran was reached in the early hours of Monday morning, Gulf time, which meant that initial responses emerged over the course of the day. Formal responses from the Gulf foreign ministries generally conveyed a sense of relief at the deal, along with marked caution that tangible implementation of specific commitments must follow.

As some readers will know, I wrote my PhD thesis on New Zealand’s relations with the Gulf states in the 21st century - so I like to keep my eye on what’s going on with bilateral developments. I think the relationship also holds valuable lessons for those interested in UAE foreign policy more generally. One of the surprising findings from my research was on the sheer number of high-level visits between New Zealand the six Gulf states.

After weeks of rumours, hints and hopes that a US-Iran peace deal was just around the corner, it’s been a rather depressing 36 hours. Iran and Israel have engaged in direct open conflict since the ceasefire came into force on April 8. At least at the time of writing, both sides have decided to suspend their reciprocal strikes, although how long for is anyone’s guess.

A drone attack by Iran on Kuwait’s international airport on Wednesday killed one person and injured more than 60 others. It’s one of the most serious violations of the US-Iran ceasefire since it came into force on April 8. Across the Gulf, the general tone of official reaction and views from state-aligned commentators has reflected anger towards Iran and solidarity with Kuwait - with surprisingly similar calls for collective action.

Israel has cancelled its plans to attack the outer suburbs of Beirut - and Qatar is claiming the credit.

Leaked reports might seem to have all the answers - but don't believe everything you read Thanks for reading Gulf States Insights! As this is a new newsletter, please do share this post with others if you find it useful. All of the posts are free to read, so please encourage others to subscribe. Thanks for your support! Geoffrey Another week, another fascinating Wall Street Journal report on Gulf involvement in the Iran war.

Trump's bullying of Muscat shows his vulnerability on freedom of navigation Donald Trump’s tongue-lashing of Oman this week wasn’t an accident. On Wednesday, the US president said when discussing the need for freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz: ‘Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we'll have to blow them up. They understand that. They'll be fine.’ Department of State@StateDept PRESIDENT TRUMP: The Strait is going to be open to everybody. It’s international waters.

The Gulf's post-Iran war energy pivot continues - with some exciting new ideas Thanks for reading Gulf States Insights! As this is a new newsletter, please do forward it on to friends and colleagues who would be interested. Thanks for your support! Geoffrey My first post for Gulf States Insights (‘From Hormuz to Hejaz: the Gulf’s rail revival’) was on how new rail networks are transforming the region.