Indeed Hiring Lab

Key points: Nonfarm employers lost 23,000 jobs in July, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Government lost over 50,000 jobs in July 2026, followed by Leisure & Hospitality, which lost 40,000 jobs. Prime-age labor force participation rate edged up to 83.4%.

What surprised us: It’s not exactly a surprise that productivity growth remains strong without workers putting in meaningfully more hours — what is surprising is how consistent this dynamic has been over the past two years. Nonfarm business sector labor productivity rose 1.4% in Q2 2026, output increased 1.7%, and hours worked moved a mere 0.3%, according to preliminary estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Key points: A majority of economists recently surveyed by Indeed said they expect a gentle economic cooling over the next year, not a downturn. The Indeed Job Postings Index (JPI) is expected to fall by 1.4%, on average, through June 2027, and unemployment is forecast to drift up from its current 4.2% to roughly 4.4% by year-end. The panel was divided on the near-term impact of AI on the jobs market, and leaned slightly negative.

Key Points: Job openings were little changed at 7.4 million in June, from a downwardly revised level in May, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The layoffs rate stayed steady at 1.1% in June 2026 and remains well within its recent range. The quits rate was unchanged at 2%. Like a duck on a pond, the labor market is calm on the surface but paddling hard just below the water as the market reallocates hiring to outrun a shrinking, greying workforce.

Key Points: Foreign-trained workers are increasingly important to well-functioning health care systems worldwide, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand and Canada. Around 5.3% of all clicks on physician & surgeon job postings globally came from job seekers outside the country where the role was posted, from 1 July 2025 to 30 June 2026, compared to 1.7% for nursing postings.

Key Points: UK job postings are down 11% since the start of 2026 and now stand 32% below their pre-pandemic baseline – a stark underperformance relative to the euro area and US where postings remain at or above pre-pandemic levels. Graduate job postings are at their lowest level for this time of year since the pandemic, while summer job postings are at a four-year low – a double blow for younger workers already facing youth unemployment at its highest in over a decade.

What surprised us: Real, inflation-adjusted wages and salaries for private-sector workers fell for the first time since 2022, dropping 0.4% year-over-year. Private-sector wage growth fell to 3.1% year-over-year in Q2 2026, down from 3.5% a year earlier. Inflation rebounded in the second quarter, driven in part by higher energy prices associated with the conflict in Iran. The combination of softening wages and higher prices is translating into less purchasing power for workers.

Key Points: Foreign-trained workers are increasingly important to well-functioning healthcare systems worldwide, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. From July 1, 2025, to June 30, 2026, around 5.3% of all clicks on physician & surgeon job postings globally came from job seekers outside the country where the role was posted, compared to 1.7% for nursing postings.

Key Points: Foreign-trained workers are increasingly important to well-functioning healthcare systems worldwide, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand and Canada. Around 5.3% of all clicks on physician & surgeon job postings globally came from job seekers outside the country where the role was posted, from July 1, 2025, to June 30, 2026, compared to 1.7% for nursing postings.

Key points: The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the federal funds target range between 3.5% and 3.75%. A rate increase this year is far from certain despite the renewed affirmation under Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh that “the Committee will deliver price stability.” The Federal Open Market Committee held the target policy rate at 3.5%-3.75% today.