James’s Substack

A decade ago, the central issue of British politics was the budget deficit. The coalition government’s guiding mission was balancing the books. At every turn, Cameron and Osborne reminded us that the nation had maxed out its credit card. Even Ed Miliband’s Labour Party agreed on the need to bring down the deficit over time. Fiscal discipline was the order of the day. Ten years on, conversations about the deficit are notable only by their absence.

In case you hadn’t noticed, the US economy has had a rough few weeks. The Nasdaq has fallen to its lowest level since September. America’s seven most valuable tech companies have lost a combined $2.7 trillion in market value, with the stock price of Elon Musk’s Tesla almost halving. And to cap it all off, Donald Trump is refusing to rule out a recession, warning instead that the US economy faces a “little disturbance” in the coming months.

For weeks, a small but growing number of US commentators have smelled a rat. The polls are wrong - or so they claim. Specifically, they charge that polling companies - so traumatised by their failure to fully capture the level of Donald Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020 - have overcorrected, and are now artificially inflating the former president’s numbers and underestimating Kamala Harris’.

This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please turn on JavaScript or unblock scripts

For the past few months, I’ve been hosting Frontline, a daily YouTube series for Times Radio about the war in Ukraine. It has been eye-opening. Not only for the expertise and insight of our guests (I’ve been lucky enough to interview retired four-star generals, veteran war correspondents, and military analysts, among many others), but for the overwhelming response of our audience. Each episode of Frontline is around 30 minutes long, with most having more than 100,000 views.

Most governments have one: a cabinet minister prone to going a bit rogue and stirring up controversy. Michael Heseltine tested the patience of Margaret Thatcher. Clare Short enjoyed making Tony Blair’s life uncomfortable. Theresa May had… Boris Johnson.