External Processing

It is striking how enamored the Abundance crowd is of strict policing. This is a surprise to me. I have written about it here and here and the satire and sarcasm therein are prompted by disappointment, not contempt. I certainly understand the pull of order maintenance as a prescription for safer cities. But, it is so outside the original formulation of what it means to be a healthy city that it is worth spilling a few words on the evolution of New New-and-Improved! Urbanism.

Recently, I came across this quote from Matt Yglesias, who explains the crime spike and decline this way: I think it is broadly clear that the spike was a reaction to the George Floyd protests and that the subsequent decline reflects a return to more vigorous levels of police activity. This is a provocative take, for a couple of reasons. For one, I think it is representative of a broad class of people who are interested in urban policy projects and see crime as an impediment to those projects.

One estimate is 35%. The other is 71%. They are both correct. Few statistics are more important in crime and justice than the recidivism rate. It is obviously important for policymaking, but the impact goes much deeper. If most people who commit crimes and are incarcerated go on to commit new crimes, then there are all sorts of knock-on effects. It will be very hard to convince a potential employer to hire you. It will be hard to convince a landlord to rent to you.

Does the cyclical nature of violence epidemics effect racial disparities in victimization? A couple of years ago, I had the good fortune to write a short article with Alex Piquero for JAMA, which reported how racial disparities in firearms homicide victimization changed during the pandemic. That analysis examined 2018-2022 and captured a period where homicide spiked. Now, we have data through 2025, which includes both the period when homicide spiked and the current, rapid decline.

After a chaotic surge in 2020 and 2021, gun homicide in America is plummeting. Data for 2019 to 2025 from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC)1 make this plain: Source: CDC Provisional Mortality Statistics, 2018 through Last Week Results, with author imputation. UCD - Injury Intent: Homicide; UCD - Injury Mechanism & All Other Leading Causes: Firearm The overall effect has been to leave America in a better, less violent place in 2026 than it was in 2019 before the pandemic started.

This month, I’m giving two talks on the ongoing decline in crime. The first is Wednesday, April 15th at 2 PM EST, hosted by the National Prevention Science Coalition, on “The Promise of Prevention to Address Addiction.” You can register here. The other is not a public event, so I’ll have to see what the rules of engagement are, but I hope to share some thoughts afterward because it’s a great panel. In other news, I was delighted to be elected to the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) this month.

Apologies for the slightly delayed delivery, my friends. Today, I am interested in working with some data to think about why justified police homicides go up and down. Typically, there are between 350 and 450 homicides by police officers that are later found to be justified each year. I’m looking at data from 1976 to 2024, and the number of justified police homicides is pretty much always in that range.

Last week, I wrote about causes of effects models, and there is a bit more to say. This is a rich area to explore, and the nuance is what gives it power, and without that nuance, it is subject to fair criticism. The usual challenge to this approach is that it is more mysticism than science, and I don’t think that’s a fair challenge. There’s lot of strong science in this area. Annual shooting incidents in New York City, 2018–2025.

Greeting friends. A couple of quick notes, then on with the show. I had a great conversation with Scott Calvert at the Wall Street Journal on the crime decline. What separates this story from most crime drop coverage is that it accepts the position that is overwhelmingly supported by the data (that the crime decline is national in scope and thus explanations must also be national in scope). From that starting point, there is plenty of room for debate.

Early in her career, a friend of mine was a student at a highly prestigious university, working as the graduate assistant to a renowned researcher. As she tells the story, he gave her a paper to review at one point, which she did. After her review, she sought out her professor with a question. The paper, she said, was excellent, but it contained no citations to any prior works. On what basis, she asked, did he claim a foundation for his conclusions? “Logic!” was his emphatic reply.