Kenpom's Thoughts

The season is over but it’s not really over until we reveal the Champion Ball Knower of the Year. In October, 577 subscribers participated in the H.U.M.A.N. Poll, the world’s only known preseason ranking of all 365 D-I teams done by humans, for humans. Participants were given 50 pairs of teams and asked to pick the team that would finish higher in the final kenpom ratings. All of the picks were used to produce a ranking from the collective wisdom of participants.

Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1W Arizona 78.5 54.8 32.1 19.5 1E Duke 75.1 52.9 34.0 19.0 1MW Michigan 76.3 51.0 30.1 18.3 2S Houston 52.7 36.3 19.1 9.2 3S Illinois 47.3 31.7 15.8 7.2 2MW Iowa St. 64.1 28.3 13.3 6.6 2W Purdue 75.2 31.5 13.9 6.5 3E Michigan St. 51.5 18.7 8.4 3.0 2E Connecticut 48.5 17.1 7.4 2.6 4S Nebraska 58.5 20.4 7.4 2.3 5E St. John’s 24.9 11.3 4.5 1.3 6MW Tennessee 35.9 11.0 3.7 1.3 4MW Alabama 23.7 9.7 3.3 1.2 4W Arkansas 21.5 9.2 2.7 0.9 9S Iowa 41.5 11.6 3.4 0.8 11W Texas...

Hey, we have odds. But first, a few random thoughts. Pretty good job by the committee, who went by WAB for inclusion with the exception of swapping in SMU for Auburn. Look, you shouldn’t feel sorry for Auburn, but if you are going to use a system you have to use it. The reason given for SMU’s inclusion was the terrible, awful, injury excuse. Presumably, BJ Edwards will be back for the tournament after missing the last six games for the Ponies, a stretch in which they went 1-5.

Voting for the H.U.M.A.N. poll is now open to any kenpom subscribers that wish to participate. Join fellow coaches, media personalities, and other celebrities in producing the world’s only poll by humans, for humans, that ranks all 365 teams in men’s college basketball. This year promises to be the most unpredictable yet1, so your help is urgently needed. The rules are the same as always. You will be presented with 50 pairs of teams.

I’ve updated the program ratings for another season with a new and improved formula. Past versions were a time-decay weighted average of adjusted net rating since the 1997 season with some influence from current conference strength and a dash of recruiting history. The new formula is similar, but the recruiting history now includes both transfers and freshmen (thanks, 247sports.com) and I’ve added a component of historic tournament performance.

One of the neat additions to this season’s preseason was a coaching parameter that measured a coach’s value beyond what is captured in the preseason ratings. I’ve talked about this over the years, but there are two main aspects of being a head coach: talent acquisition and then coaching that talent. The two things are undoubtedly correlated, just as a team’s offense and defense are correlated.

It’s been well-documented that college hoops is in a pretty good place, at least in terms of the on-court product. This season will feature more points per possession than ever in an era where foul calls are near historic lows. It’s always been a fun game to watch, but it’s more fun than ever. The things that get complained about most - conference realignment and roster changes - are actually fine, I think! I’d make the case that realignment has made this season more interesting.

There is one last order of business to conclude the season and that’s to crown the Champion Ball-Knower of the Year. Before the season, 414 people participated in the second annual H.U.M.A.N. poll, and 356 actually filled out a complete ballot. (If you were one of those, you can see your ballot here.) In all, 19,110 votes were cast. The usual celebrities and stars participated along with working-class kenpom subscribers. Congratulations to this year’s winner, Brian Kervick.

Voting for the H.U.M.A.N poll concluded Sunday night. Thanks to all who participated. In total, we received 29,522 votes from 632 voters. As is custom, we took all of these votes and ran a Bradley-Terry algorithm on it to produce a 1 to 365 ranking by humans, for humans. This year we changed two things about our approach in an attempt to improve poll output: The introduction of super-voters.

My preseason ratings were released Sunday, and as always, they suck. Thanks to 247sports.com for producing recruiting ratings for both Americans and internationals, and to @JGtheThree for his incredible spreadsheets of roster information for all 365 teams. They made this exercise much easier. But first we have to talk about last season’s preseason ratings which sucked less than ever before. And what do you do after a performance like that? Well, you gloat.