Kpler

Key takeaways The global crude market is running a deficit of about 1-2 million b/d, as Middle East losses in medium-to-heavy grades push demand toward Latin America's heavier barrels, even though Brazil's output growth has flattened while Guyana's is picking up speed thanks to the country's latest FPSOs. Vaca Muerta's light crude output in Argentina is ramping up faster, aided by YPF's new pipeline expected online in late 2026 or early 2027, with a growing portion of barrels shifting from...

Gas is pricing coal back into the merit order across the Atlantic and Asia-Pacific basins at once, with both European and Asian gas now trading above coal on a delivered basis. A mine safety crackdown in China has pulled coking coal output down sharply after fatal accidents in Shanxi and Hunan, sending Australian premium low-vol coking coal prices up more than $60/t since late July, to nearly $280/t.

Key Takeaways: Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship (GoO StS) activity has surged to record levels, straining regional auxiliary services as crude transfers dominate MEG export rerouting efforts. Capacity constraints may force operations to West Coast India or Malaysia, with the former currently bound by weather restrictions. Longer voyages to alternative lightering locations significantly extend round-trip times, requiring up to 58 VLCCs (Malaysia case) compared to 25 in the case of Gulf.

Carriers enter into rotation negotiations with a waiting time number. The terminal walks in with a different number. Neither was built to stand up from the scrutiny of the other side. That's not a failure of either party, but rather a description of how terminal performance data has traditionally worked. Each side measures its own vessels, at its own terminal, using its own definitions, and brings that number to a conversation where the other party has every reason to dispute it.

Market context Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, also known as Petroline, links crude and gas fields in the Eastern Province to the Red Sea export terminal at Yanbu.

A suspected Iraq-based attack on Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline shows the growing reach of Iran and its aligned groups, from Yemen to Iraq, as conflict engulfs the region. The strike shuts down a critical bypass for Hormuz and brings the fighting another step closer to producing assets.

Executive Summary Source: Kpler Trading Calls Bullish Dubai M1/M3: The East-West pipeline outage is partly priced, but a month-long Petroline repair and dwindling Yanbu stocks leave further upside. Bullish prompt DFL: Lower Saudi availability and Forties moving east tighten Europe, while record margins keep refinery runs firm.

In commercial shipping, a company's geography is rarely as simple as the map on its website. A ferry group may have offices in several countries, vessels registered through different legal entities and routes operated through subsidiaries acquired at different times. None of that shows where the business is most active today or whether its position is strengthening. That distinction became unusually visible in the Strait of Gibraltar during 2025.

In late 2022, Galveston opened a third cruise terminal and welcomed its first Oasis-class ship, backed by a $125 million facility and a long-term Royal Caribbean commitment. But announcements only signal intent. They don't reveal how fast a market absorbs new capacity, whether rivals follow, or whether the boost outlasts one season. That gap matters in cruise shipping, where schedules are published years ahead and ports celebrate deployments long before ships arrive.

A practical look at how analysts can use historical vessel activity as an early trade-flow signal - and where the limits of that signal begin. Structured over time, port calls reveal whether trade-related activity is rising, falling, shifting or recovering. For commodity and trade-flow analysts, the first sign of change often arrives before there's enough evidence for a full market view: A new route starts attracting traffic. Activity at an established export hub falls away.