Lateral Thinking

Last updated: Week 1, Patriots @ Seahawks This is something I've done in a Bluesky thread (or before that, a Twitter thread, or before that, yelling at my neighbors until they throw a shoe at me) – the Biggest Play of the NFL Season. And, since I have this new blog, why not also put it here, for posterity's sake! We're tracking which play has the biggest impact in determining who eventually is Super Bowl champion.

Tonight, the 2026 NFL season kicks off with a Super Bowl rematch, Patriots v. Seahawks. The long, miserable offseason is over, and football is finally here once more. Huz-freaking-zah. I’ll be watching, as I always do, with the DVOA Discord up on the monitor, chattering away.

The 2026 Los Angeles Rams look like a superteam. The only other times we’ve seen the defending MVP and Defensive Player of the Year on the same squad were when they were the same person; bringing Myles Garrett in to play with Matthew Stafford is almost unprecedented. With Aaron Donald coming out of retirement, the Rams become the first team since the 1999 Kansas City Chiefs to have two players entering the year with at least 100 career sacks.

Neither Deshaun Watson nor Shedeur Sanders are good at playing quarterback, and so the Cleveland Browns are screwed. Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metric currently goes back to 1977. In the 49-year history of DVOA, there have been 1,653 quarterback seasons with enough passing plays to qualify for the leaderboards – 200 in a non-strike-shortened season. Of those 1,653 seasons, Deshaun Watson’s 2024 is the 11th-worst ever recorded, clocking in at a DVOA of -51.1%.

Preseason — 15 min read Preseason is for falling in love. No one cares who wins or loses a preseason game, with the possible exception of the players on the field at the end of the fourth quarter and particularly obsessive coaches. The results are meaningless, the schemes are vanilla, the broadcast goes into long interviews with owners and general managers rather than attempting to do even the mildest form of play-by-play – it’s an attempt to whet your appetite and flog you some tickets.

Vikings — 5 min read The wasteland of failed top 10 picks gains a new, overly-intense leader To the surprise of absolutely no one, the Minnesota quarterback “competition” is over. On Tuesday, it was reported the Vikings had decided to go with Kyler Murray instead of J.J. McCarthy as their starter. It was worth at least acting like this was a competition, for a while.

The 2026 Hall of Fame Game – tonight! Thrill to Carson Beck and Kenny Pickett action before falling asleep on your couch! To celebrate the annual induction ceremony, we're looking at the best players yet to get the call to Canton. Yesterday, we looked at each NFC team's best player not yet in the Hall of Fame, and today, we pivot to the AFC. Funny how that works. The NFC's bench is, admittedly, deeper than the AFC's.

Tomorrow night, we get the Hall of Fame game. Finally, a football-like substance on our TV! It's an annual tradition unlike any other – a day of excitement and anticipation for the first football game in half a year, and then the realization after about three minutes of watching Kenny Pickett and Carson Beck that, oh yeah, it's preseason football and not really that great. Still, even the smallest drop of brackish water for a survivor in the desert, right?

Anti-Dynasty — 7 min read Peak Anti-Dynasty Points: 125 Record: 151-301-1 (.345) Average DVOA: -14.7% Bottom-Five DVOA: -36.7% Five last-place finishes in the NFL; Five last-place finishes in the AFC; Eighteen last-place finishes in the AFC Central/North Head Coaches: Bill Belichick, Chris Palmer, Butch Davis, Terry Robiskie, Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini, Pat Shurmur, Rob Chudzinski, Mike Pettine, Hue Jackson, Gregg Williams, Freddie Kitchens, Kevin Stefanski Key Players: QB Tim Couch, QB...

Peak Anti-Dynasty Points: 106 Record: 121-229-1 (.346) Average DVOA: -19.4% Bottom-Five DVOA: -33.9% One last-place finish in the NFL; Five last-place finishes in the NFC; Eleven last-place finishes in the NFC East/West Head Coaches: Jim Hanifan, Gene Stallings, Hank Kuhlman, Joe Bugel, Buddy Ryan, Vince Tobin, Dave McGinnis, Dennis Green Key Players: QB Jake Plummer, FB Larry Centers, WR Anquan Boldin, WR Frank Sanders, W Roy Green, WR Rob Moore, T Luis Sharpe, T Lance Smith, T Tootie...