Mintec Limited

Grain markets in the Black Sea region are entering the second half of winter under mounting operational and weather-related pressures, as both Ukraine and Russia contend with challenging export conditions. Market participants told Expana that logistical constraints and adverse weather are beginning to curb near-term shipment capacity, adding fresh uncertainty to supply flows from two of the world’s key wheat exporters.

Euronext milling wheat futures extended losses over the past week, with the March contract (Expana Code: WHT2) settling at €190.75/mt on 16 January, down 0.52% week-on-week. The decline mirrors broader weakness across the grains complex and reflects a firmly bearish market reaction to the latest USDA WASDE update, which reinforced perceptions of ample global supply and limited near-term upside.

Market participants told Expana this week that operations at Ukraine’s Yuzhni port have been suspended following Russian shelling. Russia continues to launch missile and drone attacks, causing sustained damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure, including critical export facilities. While escalation in attacks ahead of Christmas and New Year has been observed in previous years, market sources say the current situation is more severe. “This hasn’t been the case in prior years.

Argentina’s wheat harvest is smashing records this season, with two major grain exchanges raising their forecasts again. The Rosario Grain Exchange now expects Argentine 2025/26 wheat production to reach 27.7 million mt, well above last week’s estimate of 25.5 million mt from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE). BAGE has also moved its Argentine wheat forecast up to 27.1 million mt and states there could be more upward revisions as harvesting continues.

The Expana Benchmark Price (EBP) for EU orange juice concentrate reached $6550/MT on the 28th of June, up 112% year over year, driven by the prospects of low orange production in Brazil and consequently limited global orange juice availability. On May 10, 2024, Fundecitrus, an association supported by citrus growers and juice industries in São Paulo, released its crop forecast for the 2024-2025 São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt.

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Skipjack Tuna Prices Show Recovery The Mintec Benchmark Prices (MBP) for Thai skipjack tuna increased by $35/MT (+1.9%) during the quarter ending 31 May 2024, after a 10-month downward trend. This change may be attributed to a more dynamic market following the World Tuna Trade Conference. As seasonality demand rises, the industry is optimistic for the quarter ahead of skipjack price.

UK beef prices have either been increasing or remaining steady at high levels in the last few weeks, driven by a surge in demand ahead of the upcoming barbecue grilling season. A limited supply of cattle continues to be a major price driving factor in the wholesale beef market. Additionally, fears about the new strain of Bluetongue disease (BTV-3) in the UK have been magnifying market fears.

On 10th  May 2024, Fundecitrus, an association maintained by citrus growers and juice industries in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, released a report for the 2024-2025 orange crop forecast, providing a detailed analysis of expected orange production in the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt. The forecast for the season is 232.38 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, representing a 24.36% decrease compared to the previous season’s 307.22 million boxes.