Mish Talk

If not, aid to farmers, more military spending, and the SAVE act are all unlikely. What Trump Seeks According to legislative frameworks advanced by House Republicans, the primary components Trump wants in the $95 billion package include: Defense & Military Spending: Trump initially requested a massive $350 billion cash infusion for the Pentagon. The active $95 billion House package scales this to $73 billion earmarked for defense, intelligence, and military operations related to the Iran war.

The deal is illegal, with no immediate impact. But Canada is warned.

The total revision was -79,000. This is the smallest benchmark revision since 2021. The BLS reports the Preliminary Benchmark Revision for March of 2026 (from March 2025) is -79,000 total jobs. The preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2026 was -79,000 (-0.1 percent) The preliminary benchmark revision for total private employment was -178,000 (-0.1 percent).

Warsh cites resilient economy and insufficient inflation progress. The odds of a September rate hike jumped to 59.5 percent from 35.5 percent yesterday on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments at Jackson Hole. Not Done Fighting Inflation The Wall Street Journal reports Warsh Says the Fed May Not Be Done Fighting Inflation. “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed.

Tech firms court Democrats and prepare for investigations if Republicans lose control of the House. Get Right with God The Wall Street Journal reports Corporate America Cut Big Checks to Trump. Now CEOs Fear Subpoenas Are Coming. Big tech companies, in particular those that made major donations to Trump’s legacy projects, are preparing for congressional and even potential criminal investigations, according to advisers, lobbyists and board members.

Trade deficit jumps 17.2 percent. Wow. The Advance Economic Indicators Report for July was a total disaster. Advance International Trade in Goods The international trade deficit was $118.8 billion in July, up $17.4 billion from $101.4 billion in June. Exports of goods for July were $199.4 billion, $6.0 billion less than June exports. Imports of goods for July were $318.2 billion, $11.4 billion more than June imports.

We know the answer already, China. To the detriment of the US and Canada, China is the big winner in Trump’s trade war with Canada. Please consider the Real Winner of the Trade War with Canada by Chad Bown. The keenest observer of the all-out trade war between the United States and Canada is surely President Xi Jinping of China. If Washington doesn’t change course, he’s probably going to be its winner, too.

Real spending is up, real Income down from year ago. Real Income and Real Spending Real Personal Income (all sources): -0.01 percent Real DPI (after taxes): 0.45 percent Real PI Excluding Transfers : -0.38 percent Real PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures): 2.14 percent Transfer payments are government checks or deposits for which no current services were performed. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and food stamps are examples.

Let’s discuss the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and gasoline.

You can’t increase exports if you are the highest cost manufacturer. The Metals Lobby’s Big Steal The Wall Street Journal discusses The Metals Lobby’s Big Steal Multiple press reports say that an agreement to avert a 50% U.S. tariff on $20 billion in Canadian goods broke down last week in part because of objections by the U.S. steel and aluminum lobbies. The mooted deal would have reduced those tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 25% from 50%.