Andrew Fox’s Substack

The Greens are the 2026 Nazi Party, infiltrated by Islamist extremists. How many fucking times are British Jews supposed to endure this? How often must they explain, with more patience than anyone has a right to demand, that their place in this country cannot depend on meeting somebody else’s political conditions? The Green Party, the Nazi Party of 2026, infiltrated top-to-bottom by Islamist extremists, has decided it can impose a political purity test on Jews.

Hamas and Hezbollah have been badly weakened and Syria has fallen away, but Iraqi militias and the Houthis remain in the fight. Whilst greatly reduced, Iran’s ability to wage war across the Middle East has survived the battering of its own armed forces. In Iraq, factions armed and trained by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) retain the capacity to attack neighbouring countries. In Yemen, the Houthis can threaten shipping at the entrance to the Red Sea.

Hormuz was open before the first missile was fired. Seven months later, Tehran’s rulers remain in power, and Washington has fired missiles it may need against China. There is a lot of cheerleading in the usual circles about the US Navy’s partial success in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Everybody, calm down. To get a convoy through Hormuz on 1 September, the Americans had to fight.

Rumours about what Israel knew before 7 October are swirling again as its election campaign gathers pace. Given how poorly these rumours reflect upon Netanyahu, I doubt the timing is accidental, although political convenience tells us nothing conclusive about an allegation’s truth. The established record already demands an accounting. Israel collected warnings that, properly assessed, should have altered its defensive posture.

The “two-state solution” has become a diplomatic answer that lets its advocates avoid the next question: how? Macron, Burnham, Carney and the rest appear to believe that simply saying “two-state solution” in the mirror three times will make it appear. Repeating the destination does very little for the Israeli who expects withdrawal from the West Bank to produce another 7 October, or the Palestinian who expects another peace process to leave him living under continued Israeli security control.

The war in Iran is accelerating the breakdown of the international order, and the Middle East is discovering how exposed it is. Governments that relied on American protection have suffered the consequences of an American war, while European partners jeopardise useful relationships with Israel. The damage extends to the international institutions that might otherwise help contain the resulting disputes.

First – Shana Tova to all my Jewish friends and subscribers. As the English theologian Thomas Fuller wrote in A Pisgah-Sight of Palestine and the Confines Thereof in 1650, “it is always darkest before the dawn”. Wishing you all a brighter and joyous new year. Second – an apology. I have been quieter here while finishing my book (the pesky Houthis required an addition to the Yemen chapter), so here is a long download on a few issues.

Six months after Donald Trump promised a “little excursion”, the Iran war has reached a point at which spectacle meets economics. To recap: American and Israeli strikes killed Ali Khamenei and senior leaders. Iran’s succession system worked: Mojtaba Khamenei (or his cypher) took power, and the regime hardened around the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The hoped-for uprising never arrived.

Fox On War Both my regular podcasts in one place! Here you can find my weekly chat with Shana Meyerson, A Paratrooper and a Yogi Walk Into A Bar, and special live editions of The Brink, with Jake Wallis Simons. Both my regular podcasts in one place! Here you can find my weekly chat with Shana Meyerson, A Paratrooper and a Yogi Walk Into A Bar, and special live editions of The Brink, with Jake Wallis Simons.

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