Oddly Likely

UEFA Champions League · Pre-match read Tue 8 Sep · 21:00 CEST · Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid · odds compared across 9 partners. Real Madrid vs Inter Milan prediction Our pickInter Milan to win5.43×best price · 1XBet Three bans, one functional midfielder, and a price stuck at 1.6: the market is pricing Madrid's name, not their squad. Main risk The Bernabéu is the most reliable home fortress in European football, and the crowd has already taxed the price to 1.6 for a reason.

LaLiga EA SPORTS · Pre-match read Fri 4 Sep · 21:00 CEST · Estadio La Cartuja, Seville · odds compared across 9 partners. Real Betis vs Real Madrid prediction Our pickReal Betis to win7.75×best price · BetOnline The market puts Betis at 13% implied probability. Madrid's actual record in Seville, four meetings without a win since August 2021, says the crowd is pricing on league standing rather than the specific fixture.

DFB-Pokal, first round · Pre-match read Wed 2 Sep · 20:45 CEST · Stadion an der Bremer Brücke, Osnabrück · odds compared across 9 partners. VfL Osnabrück vs Bayern Munich prediction Our pickVfL Osnabrück to winno tracked price yet At 31, Osnabrück's price ignores the one thing that separates them from every anonymous cup minnow: they have already beaten Bayern in this competition, and they have dressed for the occasion.

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Score modelling Enter the expected goals you give each side and this Poisson calculator returns the probability of every scoreline, the home, draw and away chances, fair odds with no margin, goal totals and both teams to score.

US Open, men's singles first round · Pre-match read Mon 31 Aug · 11:00 ET · USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York · odds compared across 9 partners. Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka prediction Our pickStan Wawrinka to win4.74×best price · 22Bet Their only career meeting at Wimbledon went four sets and four tie-breaks. Wawrinka held six set points in the second before Berrettini escaped 18-16. A 4.2 price on that rematch is too long.

Premier League · Pre-match read Mon 31 Aug · 20:00 BST · Villa Park, Birmingham · odds compared across 9 partners. Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction Our pickAston Villa to win6.60×best price · 1XBet Arsenal's patched back line, Villa's recent home record in this fixture, and a crowd with a grievance make Villa 6.5 look generous. Main risk Arsenal have won five straight competitive matches and have not conceded a single goal in two Premier League games this season. 6.60× breaks even at 15.2%.

US Open · Pre-match read Sun 30 Aug · 11:00 ET · USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York · odds compared across 9 partners. Venus Williams vs Sofia Kenin prediction Our pickVenus Williams to win5.75×best price · CloudBet At 5.00, Venus is priced purely on the losing streak. The argument is that Kenin's 20% win rate this season makes that price fragile.

Premier League · Pre-match read Sun 30 Aug · 16:30 BST · Old Trafford, Manchester · odds compared across 9 partners. Manchester United vs Ipswich Town prediction Our pickIpswich Town to win7.70×best price · 1XBet United are a 1.38 favourite off the back of a 2-0 opening-day loss; Ipswich are 7 shots despite winning their opener and sitting above United in the table.

Premier League · Pre-match read Sat 29 Aug · 17:30 BST · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London · odds compared across 9 partners. Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United prediction Our pickNewcastle United to win3.17×best price · 1XBet Spurs are 2.20 to win at home despite finishing 17th last season, recording just three home wins all year, and losing 3-0 on their opening day. Newcastle are 3.00 despite owning the fixture across six consecutive meetings and finishing above them in the table.