Phillips’s Newsletter

Hi All, If you have not noticed, the shooting war between the USA and Iran has been heating up over the past week. There have been regular exchanges of fire, the sinking of merchant ships by the USA, attacks on US naval ships by the Iranians, and mass Iranian missile attacks on US bases in Jordan (requiring very expensive US interceptions). This is a sign of the strategic dilemma that the US faces.

Hi All, The original point of this piece was an analysis of what is happening with the Graham-Blumenthal Tariff/Sanctions Bill (or more accurately, what is not happening). This bill might be dead again because Trump does not want it—which in and of itself does not mean a lot as the bill was crafted so that it really would not help Ukraine anyway. That being said, it might still be worthy of support, regardless.

Hello all, One point I have tried to get across in this Substack from the very beginning is that in a war, length is far more important than ferocity. Trying to keep a war from escalating might seem like a prudent thing (and academic theory, which simply does not understand history, says as much). However, clamping down on escalation can actually make things far worse. What such a move can do, in a vain attempt to keep a war under control, is lengthen a war out of all expectation.

Hi All, This is a piece I have been stewing over for a while. I first started writing it in April for the Lennart Meri Security Conference in Estonia. I took part on a panel entitled: Europe’s Grand Strategy. You can actually watch the panel below. However, since then certain ideas have sharpened, particularly those about Europe needing to free itself from the American official/strategic mind.

Hi All, A number of different stories over the last week emerged from Trump’s War with Iran, illustrating the (downward) trajectory of US power. I will begin with the most farcical: Scott Bessent’s “D-Day” economic campaign against Iran, which descended into absurdity this week.

Hello All, Quick note. Someone asked yesterday in the comments when I would write about European policy again. It was fortuitous timing as I have a piece entitled “A Grand Strategy For Europe”, which I was going to send out today or tomorrow. And, btw, I think there will be some surprising and important developments in this area in 2027, which I will be discussing later.

Hello All, Well, this is Weekend Update #200. When I wrote the first of these, in November 2022, I certainly did not expect to be producing these close to four years later. I just went back and read my first update, which was quite an experience. I have taken it out of paywall so that anyone can go down memory lane with me.

Hello All, Just a quick note. Because I ended up doing the emergency Substack Live with Bob Rae about the US-Canada dispute on Monday, I will move the Substack Live/AMA for paying subscribers to next week. I think doing one a week is about right, so I hope that is ok. I will announce the exact day and timing in the coming days. Phillips’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Hi All, So, it turns out that D-Day was a really tough warning to Nazi Germany. “Watch out, Hitler!”, the US, UK and Canada were saying (remember—Canada was a close US ally), “We are really, really irritated with you and if you do not start behaving we are going to be super-duper mean to you—just not yet.” An interesting reading of history, this. Phillips’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Phillips’s Newsletter Podcast Hi All, Here is the podcast section for my non Ukraine-Russia War Talk Podcasts and Video Chats. These will focus more on politics and war more widely, with a heavy slant on the US and Europe, and war and peace. Hi All, Here is the podcast section for my non Ukraine-Russia War Talk Podcasts and Video Chats. These will focus more on politics and war more widely, with a heavy slant on the US and Europe, and war and peace.