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Key takeaways The bar has moved higher into earnings season. Since late January, analysts have quadrupled their one-year earnings growth forecasts for non-financial bond issuers in the U.S. dollar (USD) investment grade (IG) market, while margin expectations have climbed above the 2015–2025 median of 21%. AI hyperscalers are the swing factor.

Statements concerning financial market trends or portfolio strategies are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are appropriate for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. Outlook and strategies are subject to change without notice.

The global energy complex is contending with both the near-term shock of the Iran conflict and the long-term push for energy security. The AI infrastructure buildout is devouring power and raw materials, and reshoring and renewed defense spending are adding to demand pressures.

Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Statements concerning financial market trends or portfolio strategies are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate.

Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Statements concerning financial market trends or portfolio strategies are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate.

, A growing share of central bankers argue that artificial intelligence will ultimately push neutral interest rates higher. Intuitively, if AI boosts productivity and lifts long-run growth, then households have less incentive to save, pushing up the real neutral rate. This view has become increasingly embedded in policy discussions, with some observers pointing to the late 1990s when higher productivity growth coincided with rising estimates of the neutral rate.

This piece originally appeared in the Financial Times on 25 June 2026. The UK will soon have a new prime minister, but not a new fiscal reality. Markets are bracing for a familiar autumn of tax and spending speculation ahead of the next Budget. For now, investors have taken comfort from the commitment of leading contender Andy Burnham to the UK’s fiscal rules. But those rules are loose, open to interpretation, and do little to constrain near-term easing measures.

Podcast Bond markets have been transformed by a generational reset in yields, creating a very different backdrop for investors than just a few years ago. Rethinking Rates, Inflation and Duration , PIMCO Fixing Your Interest Rethinking Rates, Inflation and Duration 0:00 / 30:03 Seek Playback Speed 2x 1.75x 1.5x 1.25x 1x 0.75x VOICE-OVER: Welcome to Fixing Your Interest.

Text on screen: PIMCO provides services only to qualified institutions and investors. This is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. Images on screen: Mohit and Saurabh walking Text on screen: Q: What is PIMCO’s active approach to credit? Text on screen: Mohit Mittal, CIO Core Strategies Mittal: At PIMCO, our approach to credit has a clear objective, consistent, repeatable alpha across all market environments.

Key takeaways Redemption pressure isn’t easing. Withdrawal requests from investors in non-traded business development companies (BDCs) continue to exceed available liquidity, and unlike in the 2023 episode in real estate investment trusts (REITs), BDC net asset values (NAVs) hinge directly on borrowers’ ability to service debt. A confidence gap is opening between managers.