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Model validation and IT risk management are often seen as separate processes. This fragmentation can lead to confusion about where model validation ends and IT security begins.

By Pim Poppe, Managing Partner at Probability & Partners We live in a world where economies of scale are a driving force behind market dynamics in many sectors. Scale determines cost structures, influences consolidation trends and determines which companies achieve the strongest organic growth. This also applies to asset managers. May 20, 2025 The question is: how does an asset manager leverage these economies of scale in a world that is increasingly driven by technology?

By Fabiana Liu, Quantitative Consultant at Probability & Partners President’s Trump second administration unleashes an aggressive wave of tariffs on imports, reshaping the landscape of international trade scene and surging geopolitical risk. While geopolitical risk was previously confined to certain areas, often in the form of localized conflicts, Trump’s tariffs have extended this risk globally.

By Rens Borsje, Senior Risk Consultant at Probability & Partners In this column, I will make a case for Eurobonds, while trying not to get too much into politics. I will repeat the arguments I have seen and heard, observations others have made, and add some opinions of my own. May 6, 2025 Link to: Pim Poppe Senior Risk Consultant Probability & Partners The core of the argument is an (upcoming) shift in the market.

By Erik Kooistra, Senior Risk Management Consultant, and Chiara Trovarelli, Financial Risk Management Consultant, both working at Probability & Partners Machine learning (ML) has revolutionized risk management. From predicting credit defaults to detecting market anomalies, ML offers unparalleled accuracy and efficiency. It allows organizations to leverage vast datasets, identifying trends and correlations that were once invisible or too complex to model.

By Pim Poppe, Managing Partner at Probability & Partners On Wednesday 2 April 2025, during his Liberation Day address, President Donald Trump announced trade tariffs ranging from 10% for the UK to 49% for Cambodia. The EU will be subject to a tariff of 20%, with exceptions for pharmaceutical products and chips. April 8, 2025 The tariffs are high and material, and they differ substantially per country.

By Gerd-Jan van Wiggen, Sector Lead Banking at Probability & Partners Over the past two years, banks across Europe have been facing economic uncertainty, initially driven by changes in inflation levels and the interest rate environment. New regulations have also added to their cost base. This has urged many banks to focus on efficiency, often by adopting a cost-cutting approach.

By Rens Borsje, Sector Lead Insurance at Probability & Partners Given the current state of the world, Trump’s second presidential term, political changes in Europe and a looming trade war, it is worth taking some time to assess how the next financial crisis might unfold in Europe.

By Amba Zeggen, Sector Lead Insurance at Probability & Partners De aanhoudende oorlog in Oekraïne heeft niet alleen geleid tot een humanitaire crisis, maar heeft ook verregaande economische en financiële gevolgen voor de (financiële) wereldmarkt.

Het CP2022-model speelt een cruciale rol bij de transitie naar het nieuwe pensioenstelsel. In onze eerste webinar hebben we de basisprincipes van het model besproken: de opbouw, aannames, procesflow en de werking van scenario’s. Nu gaan we een stap verder. In deze tweede sessie onderzoeken we de dynamiek achter de scenario’s en parameters. Hoe stabiel zijn de uitkomsten en parameters door de tijd heen? Wat veroorzaakt de verschillen tussen kwartaalupdates?