Split Ticket

In 2025, two governors are retiring — Republican Glenn Youngkin in Virginia and Democrat Phil Murphy in New Jersey, and their seats are up for grabs. Both Virginia and New Jersey are similarly blue: Kamala Harris won them both by 6. Yet, at the time of writing, Virginia’s race looks like a Democratic blowout, while New Jersey’s is deemed more competitive. Why? Countless factors shape any governor’s race, but one dynamic stands out in these.

If you happen to be following us on Twitter, you probably already know the big news: we’ve agreed on an exclusive partnership with The Argument. While Split Ticket and its website will still continue to exist as normal, we will be publishing the bulk of our analysis there for the foreseeable future. As part of the deal, Split Ticket co-founder Lakshya Jain will also be the new Director of Political Data at The Argument (though he will still remain a partner at Split Ticket).

For years, we’ve talked about candidate quality at Split Ticket, and about the inferences we draw from our modeling. Broadly, these are conclusions that are in step with what most political professionals and survey practitioners alike express: moderates generally tend to do better, and that gender and race don’t strongly tilt the playing field in either direction by themselves. At the same time, I recognize that we’ve only lightly explained what actually goes into such a model.

Ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats are busy sizing up the weak points in the slim Republican majority to maximize their chances of taking back the House. And if history is any indicator, they have ample reason to be optimistic about their chances in the lower chamber.

Democrats’ political woes just got darker. Recently, the Texas Legislature reconvened to reconfigure Democratic-leaning congressional districts to elect Republicans. The New York Times reports that anywhere between 2 and 5 Democratic-held seats in Texas are vulnerable, and President Donald Trump has instructed the legislature to target 5 Democratic incumbents.

Ticket-splitting has hit record lows in recent years. In 2024, the number of “crossover districts” in the House dropped to just sixteen — with thirteen of them electing a Democrat to Congress despite voting for Trump. Growing political polarization has made it extraordinarily difficult for down-ballot candidates to draw from dwindling cross-party support and win races in hostile political territory, especially in presidential cycles.

Turnout may be the political world’s favorite buzzword. If you’ve ever heard a campaign say that “it’ll all come down to turnout,” you’ll know it has long since become a cliche. Whether they win or lose, candidates often credit (or curse) turnout. Case in point: the 2024 presidential race. Many observers pegged poor Democratic turnout as the primary cause for Kamala Harris’s loss to Donald Trump. It will come as a surprise to many, then, that “turnout” often lacks a clear definition.

It’s no secret that the Senate is an extraordinarily difficult and uphill challenge for Democrats — in order to win the chamber in 2026, the party will likely need to flip at least two of Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Florida. Meanwhile, their hopes of competing in 60 seats, like they once regularly did and like Republicans still regularly do, are all but extinguished under current coalitions.

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