In 2025, two governors are retiring — Republican Glenn Youngkin in Virginia and Democrat Phil Murphy in New Jersey, and their seats are up for grabs. Both Virginia and New Jersey are similarly blue: Kamala Harris won them both by 6. Yet, at the time of writing, Virginia’s race looks like a Democratic blowout, while New Jersey’s is deemed more competitive. Why? Countless factors shape any governor’s race, but one dynamic stands out in these.