AFIRE Summit Journal

By mid-2026, the US economy has weathered a plethora of challenges to post the strongest growth of all G7 nations. Contributing factors, amplified by new tax benefits, continue to make US CRE an attractive investment for global institutions. These same factors, amplified by tax benefits from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) ultimately support property fundamentals, making commercial real estate in the US an attractive investment for global institutions.

As stewards of the built environment, investors and fund managers will also need to manage the populist impulse in the societies in which they operate to achieve steady, long-term returns. (Note: This article was originally published by the Observer Research Foundation.

The latest survey of AFIRE members looks at changes in investor sentiment over the past year, as tolerance for risk takes a drop, an appreciation for patience ascends, and investors turn to on-the-ground solutions for key challenges in energy and housing. Since the early 1990’s, AFIRE has conducted this semi-annual survey of its members to gauge their sentiment around economic, demographic, and other commercial real estate trends in the US.

(Click to view full digital issue in new tab) When I boil down this issue of Summit Journal to a single theme, it’s the notion that caution is replacing conviction—but not opportunity. This notion underscores AFIRE’s latest Mid-Year Pulse survey, which opens this issue. The report finds global institutional investors approaching US real estate with a more selective eye, a longer time horizon, and a growing willingness to look beyond traditional property allocations.

Commercial real estate executives make consequential decisions for a living. We acquire, develop, finance, restructure, lease, operate, advise, and allocate capital across markets that rarely perform as expected. An investment exceeds its underwriting. A development encounters an unforeseen obstacle. A financing closes on terms no one anticipated a year earlier. A restructuring preserves value once thought lost. A leadership decision alters the trajectory of an enterprise.

In complex systems, the past is a poor guide to the future. It is more than usually relevant to the question of how to invest in US real estate today. Trump’s tariffs, the most restrictive immigration posture in a generation, an industrial reindustrialization push, fragile grids, and a climate-and-insurance reset are colliding in real time. Linear models built on the last cycle will not catch what comes next.

The office sector is gradually emerging from its long downcycle which was driven largely by pandemic disruptions and the shift to remote and hybrid work that restructured how and where the US labor force works. Typically, sectoral adjustment of the magnitude seen in the last five years would be infrequent, but with recent advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI), the office sector may face a second major restructuring just as it emerges from the last one.

The growing number of households that are rent burdened has put a spotlight on housing costs and led policymakers to implement programs intended to produce more affordable housing. The federal tax bill signed into law this spring, for example, permanently increases funding for the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program by 12%, which will provide $14 billion tax credits to be allocated among the states annually.

The rapid expansion of cloud computing and artificial intelligence is driving one of the largest digital infrastructure investment cycles in modern economic history. As hyperscale technology companies accelerate capital expenditures to support growing compute demand, the US data center market is experiencing historically tight supply conditions, rapid geographic expansion, and increasing institutional investor interest.

AFIRE invites global thought leaders and experts in commercial real estate to contribute to the forthcoming Issue #22 of Summit Journal, to be released in September 2026 in conjunction with the AFIRE Annual Member Meeting in New York. Proposals are due Friday, July 10.