AFIRE Summit Journal

In complex systems, the past is a poor guide to the future. It is more than usually relevant to the question of how to invest in US real estate today. Trump’s tariffs, the most restrictive immigration posture in a generation, an industrial reindustrialization push, fragile grids, and a climate-and-insurance reset are colliding in real time. Linear models built on the last cycle will not catch what comes next.

The office sector is gradually emerging from its long downcycle which was driven largely by pandemic disruptions and the shift to remote and hybrid work that restructured how and where the US labor force works. Typically, sectoral adjustment of the magnitude seen in the last five years would be infrequent, but with recent advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI), the office sector may face a second major restructuring just as it emerges from the last one.

The growing number of households that are rent burdened has put a spotlight on housing costs and led policymakers to implement programs intended to produce more affordable housing. The federal tax bill signed into law this spring, for example, permanently increases funding for the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program by 12%, which will provide $14 billion tax credits to be allocated among the states annually.

The rapid expansion of cloud computing and artificial intelligence is driving one of the largest digital infrastructure investment cycles in modern economic history. As hyperscale technology companies accelerate capital expenditures to support growing compute demand, the US data center market is experiencing historically tight supply conditions, rapid geographic expansion, and increasing institutional investor interest.

AFIRE invites global thought leaders and experts in commercial real estate to contribute to the forthcoming Issue #22 of Summit Journal, to be released in September 2026 in conjunction with the AFIRE Annual Member Meeting in New York. Proposals are due Friday, July 10.

US CRE markets entered 2026 in a transitional phase marked by improving liquidity, moderating inflation and persistent rate-driven volatility. The rapid repricing cycle triggered by aggressive monetary tightening appears largely complete, but a valuation recovery remains sensitive to long-term interest rate movements and capital market conditions. (Note: This article was originally published by the NAIOP Research Foundation as the first edition of a recurring report on March 26, 2026.

(Click to view full digital issue in new tab) As the publisher and editor of AFIRE’s growing suite of thought leadership in commercial real estate, we are pleased to present this very special Issue #21 of Summit Journal—the inaugural AFIRE Compendium.

Recent CRE capital flows have declined significantly due to heightened interest rates, market uncertainty fueled by trade tariffs, and US governance challenges. What does this mean for the dynamics of capital flows into the US? RXR Recent commercial real estate (CRE) capital flows have declined significantly due to heightened interest rates, market uncertainty fueled by trade tariffs and varying states of US government functionality, among other factors.

There has been a longstanding perception that an investment in affordable housing could not generate alpha, but over the past few years new economic and demographic forces are turning a social challenge into a compelling institutional opportunity. RXR For many institutional investors, it has been a longstanding perception that an investment in affordable housing in the United States could not generate alpha.

Build-to-rent (BTR) is emerging as an important segment in the US housing market, offering purpose-built rental communities designed for longer-term occupancy while providing renters with a new, professionally managed alternative to conventional housing options.