Survation

Following the first few weeks of Andy Burnham’s premiership, Survation’s poll of Labour members for LabourList uncovered a renewed sense of self-confidence within the party regarding Labour’s chances for re-election and ability to bring defectors back into the Labour fold. Confidence at the ballot box Members are markedly more optimistic about Labour’s prospects than they were a few months ago.

What Survation’s constituency MRP for HOPE not hate reveals about the next election’s tactical battleground In July 2026, Survation carried out an MRP analysis of Westminster voting intention on behalf of HOPE not hate, based on a poll of 10,014 GB adults carried out between 22 and 27 July. If an election had been held during our fieldwork, the result would have been a hung parliament: Reform the largest party on 227 seats and Labour on 197 Reform.

In Survation’s latest Westminster voting intention poll, conducted on 18 August 2026, the race between Labour and Reform UK is again tied at 26% each. This fieldwork marks the end of Burnham’s first month as Labour leader (17 July) and Prime Minister (20 July). Whilst the polling has moved since he took office, we are still very early in his premiership, and the trend will become clearer over the coming months.

Nigel Farage held Clacton with 63.3% to Count Binface’s 26.9%, a margin of 36 points. The satirical candidate Count Binface took more than a quarter of the vote. Our July poll had already started to show the movements behind the numbers. Our July poll for Mandate Research – 502 adults, 16th to 24th July – put Farage on 73% and Binface on 20% on a named ballot, with the last 7% scattered across a 34-candidate field.

Last week, Survation published an article on our Clacton constituency poll, the first and only publicly released constituency poll for the by-election. That poll was conducted for Mandate Research between the 16th and 24th of July and sampled 502 people in the Clacton constituency. It put Nigel Farage (Reform UK) on 73% and Count Binface on 20%, with another party on 5% and Laurence Fox (Reclaim Party) on 2%.

Survation conducted a telephone poll of 502 adults in Clacton between the 16th and 24th of July on behalf of Mandate Research, ahead of the 13 August by-election. Nigel Farage leads Count Binface by 73% to 20% once undecideds are excluded, a margin of 53 points. While the headline figure leaves little doubt, there’s a larger story underneath it. What the by-election is about, in voters’ own words We asked respondents what they think the Clacton by-election is about.

Our July poll of the UK public preceding Andy Burnham’s coronation as Labour leader plainly laid out what the public wants Burnham to prioritise as the new Prime Minister. When asked which three issues are the most important facing the country, 62% name the cost of living, ahead of immigration (44%) and health and the NHS (41%).

Following the appointment of Andy Burnham as the UK’s new Prime Minister on 20th July 2026, Survation’s most recent poll of Labour members for LabourList uncovers a positive and hopeful membership base, alongside a “Burnham Bounce” for continuing cabinet ministers, and a bow from members to Keir Starmer. Our poll shows Andy Burnham opening his premiership with a net approval rating of +76 among Labour members – the highest net favourability of any figure in this round of polling.

In Survation’s final Westminster voting intention poll conducted with Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Prime Minister, Labour and Reform UK are tied on 24% each. The draw comes after Reform led this series for more than a year. Labour are also up five points compared to our 17th June poll, their largest single upward movement since the 2024 General Election, while Reform are down three, their lowest share since the weeks following the May 2025 local elections.

Location: London, Hybrid (at least 3 days a week, inclusive of Tuesday–Thursday in Survation’s London office) Base Salary: £30,000 – £32,000 (depending on experience). Performance-based bonus. Contract Type: Permanent About Survation Survation is a leading market research and political polling company, delivering high-quality insights to businesses, public sector clients, political organisations, and charities.