Tavi Costa

Remember when Scott Bessent said to judge him by the 10-year Treasury? US 10-year real yields just reached their highest level in more than 2 years. Markets are the ultimate judge of fiscal discipline. Reminder: The US simply cannot afford both a prolonged war and higher interest rates.

I’ll tell you something most investors don’t know: Latin American currencies have been among the only currencies in the world to outperform the US dollar, aside from Argentina and Chile. Not only did they beat the dollar, they also outperformed the currencies of virtually every major developed economy and emerging markets. That is not a coincidence. I believe we’re witnessing the early stages of a new Latin America cycle. FULL REPORT: “The LatAm Reawakening”

The LatAm Reawakening One of the greatest mistakes investors make is assuming that the winners of the last decade will inevitably become the winners of the next. Markets simply do not function that way. Capital flows are cyclical, leadership rotates, and valuation gaps eventually close. Looking at today’s opportunity set through that historical lens, Latin America stands out as one of the most compelling regions in the world.

There are two things the US cannot afford: • Rate hikes • A prolonged, costly war Yet those are precisely what’s driving the selloff in hard assets. Not too many times in history do you get the chance to buy gold at oversold levels during a secular bull market. Act accordingly.

The Fourth of July is a celebration of one of history’s greatest experiments. Few countries have created more opportunity, generated more innovation, or lifted more people into prosperity than the United States. The strength of its institutions, respect for private property, entrepreneurial culture, and commitment to free markets transformed America into the world’s economic leader. Those achievements deserve to be celebrated. They are also worth protecting.

Foreign government ownership of US Treasuries just reached the lowest share in history. The world isn’t keeping up with America’s exploding debt issuance. That may prove to be one of the most important monetary shifts of our time. None of us own enough hard assets. -- In this report, I take a deeper look at some of the most important technical developments from the past month across multiple asset classes. I also share several new ideas and portfolio views. Hope you enjoy.

If you missed any of my recent reports, I encourage you to take some time to go through them. I think you’ll find some valuable macro insights as well as in-depth analysis of the mining sector. Also, here are some of my favorite charts that I’ve put together recently.

This is probably one of the most important divergences in the economy today. The Fed now owns one of the smallest shares of outstanding Treasury debt in over a decade. Yet federal debt continues to compound at an unsustainable pace. The Fed always comes to the rescue. Act accordingly. --- I wanted to dedicate this report to laying out my investment case for silver.

Money supply is growing at its fastest pace in 5 years. In this report, you’ll find some compelling macro charts, along with my latest thoughts on recent economic developments and how I’m currently thinking about the opportunities and risks across markets.

Gold miners are sitting at nearly 40-year support. Here are some charts that I believe are important for understanding where we are in this cycle. I also share a few thoughts on recent changes I’ve made to my portfolio, particularly around emerging markets.