The Hamrick Brief

Also in this week’s Brief: Ghosted: A new site, Did They Ghost You?, lets job seekers anonymously call out employers who go silent after an application or an interview. The Hamrick Brief is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Recapping economic data so far this week: Consumers are increasingly pessimistic about the future. Housing demand weakened sharply despite slower price appreciation. Income rose faster than spending, signaling greater household caution. Inflation remains too high for the Federal Reserve to relax. (A quick note for our treasured paid subscribers: this edition of The Brief, Briefly is a bonus just for you.

Also in this week’s edition: Updates on the HAPI (The Hamrick American Prosperity Index) and the Misery Index: Unemployment and inflation both edged lower in July. But the HAPI weakened, as fewer adults were employed and average hourly pay failed to keep pace with prices. The Hamrick Brief is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

The Hamrick American Prosperity Index declined to 58.7 in July, from a revised 59.0 in June. How do we calculate the HAPI? It comes from data contained within the monthly employment report and the Consumer Price Index, both from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or better known as BLS within the U.S. Department of Labor.

Also in this week’s edition: Latest estimate on the cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients: Now that we have an updated Consumer Price Index report, what’s the COLA estimate for January 2027? The Hamrick Brief is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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My mission here is to translate what’s happening in the economy, connecting the dots between the data and the lives that all of us are actually living. Over the past few months, we’ve created the Hamrick American Prosperity Index (the HAPI, for short). It combines the percentage of the American population that is working with inflation-adjusted wage growth or decline. The Hamrick Brief is a reader-supported publication.

The July Consumer Price Index offers some relief, but no all-clear on inflation. The government reports that prices at the retail level rose 0.1% from June and 3.4% from a year ago. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% for the month and 2.5% year over year. The report was largely as expected, meaning there was no unwelcome surprise from hotter inflation. So, I’m not so sure the lack of bad news is the same as good news. But let’s take a deeper dive.

In this edition for our treasured subscribers: The 7% pay premium for job switchers. Changing jobs delivered the biggest raise in a year, even as July payrolls unexpectedly fell and hiring cooled broadly. Crypto exchanges: easy to use, hard to fully understand. A new Consumer Reports review of five major platforms finds gamified trading and weak risk disclosures, plus my own take on why I remain skeptical. Borrowing to get by.

Here’s my take on the just-released July jobs report: The real headline is the weakness in payrolls. The economy lost 23,000 jobs in July. On top of that, May and June payrolls were revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs. Over the past three months, payroll growth has averaged only about 20,000 jobs a month, averaging 61,000 in 2026 so far. The Hamrick Brief is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.