The Writ

With today’s update, the Liberals are now at their highest level of support in the projection and have a wider lead over the Conservatives than they’ve had since the 2025 federal election — and long before that. Five polls published over the last week have had nothing but good news for the Liberals, with four of those polls giving the party a lead of at least 14 points over the Conservatives. Those polls have pushed the Liberals to 46.6% in the vote projection, their highest point yet.

Welcome to the Election Writ, a special-edition newsletter to get you up-to-date on the ongoing campaign in Quebec. The Quebec election campaign continues to sleepily head toward the October 5 voting day with no party catching fire or in free-fall. This week’s two debates — organized by TVA on Tuesday and Noovo on Wednesday — could shake things up. But, so far, voting intentions have been largely immovable.

Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Thursday morning. Reading this in your email inbox and having trouble viewing any of the charts? To optimize them for your device, click/tap the charts or view them on thewrit.ca. Canada’s counter-tariffs to the U.S. tariffs went into force on Tuesday. They were then countered by counter-counter-tariffs and import restrictions from the United States.

Welcome to the Election Writ, a special-edition newsletter to get you up-to-date on the ongoing campaign in Quebec. It’s been a relatively placid week on the Quebec election campaign trail, though not through want of trying to mix things up. With five parties in the running to win seats, all with pockets of strong support in different parts of the province, there’s been a cacophony of platform policies, candidate controversies and attacks against one leader or another.

The Liberals swept all three of the seats up for grabs in yesterday’s byelections, saving their best performance for the riding they were looking to pick up from the Conservatives. But not only did the Liberals make the gain they were gunning for, the Conservatives lost vote share in all three ridings — and, in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, suffered their biggest loss of support in any federal byelection held in over a decade.

Welcome to the Election Writ, a special-edition newsletter to get you up-to-date on the ongoing campaign in Quebec. Premier Christine Fréchette kicked off Quebec’s election campaign last Thursday, giving her 39 days — the longest campaign allowed by law — to turn things around for her Coalition Avenir Québec, a party that was doomed to electoral catastrophe when she took over from former premier François Legault earlier this year. Already, her chances to pull off an upset look decent.

Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Thursday morning. After the breakdown of trade negotiations between Canada and the United States, Prime Minister Mark Carney appears to have locked his elbows back into an up position — aligning himself back with the Canadian mood in the same way that had propelled him to victory in the 2025 election.

Updated September 15, 2026 Three new polls from Léger, Pallas Data and Synopsis Recherche suggest that the Parti Québécois is holding steady, while the Coalition Avenir Québec has lost a little momentum as the Liberals rebound slightly. Another new survey from Research Co., the first from this pollster during this campaign, aligns with the numbers put out by the other three polls. The PQ is stuck at around 29% support and is in minority territory.

Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Thursday morning. Reading this in your email inbox and having trouble viewing any of the charts? To optimize them for your device, click/tap the charts or view them on thewrit.ca.

It could be a fluke of summer polling. But, boy, did the Conservatives just get a rough hand of polls dealt their way. Since I last updated The Writ’s Federal Vote and Seat Projection two weeks ago, the Conservatives have slid 1.6 points in the vote projection to 33.3% support, the lowest they’ve been since the projection started calculating an average after the 2025 election.