The Writ

Note to Readers: These projections are presented using Datawrapper’s interactive charts. They are best viewed on a desktop. In most cases, you can click, tap or hover over the charts to interact with them. Updated June 5, 2026 A strong majority of Albertans support the province staying in Canada, with two-thirds saying they would vote to remain in the country. That increases to nearly three-quarters after the removal of undecideds.

It was a relatively quiet week on the polling front, but the new numbers that were published have pushed the Liberals to their highest point in The Writ’s Vote and Seat Projection. The Liberals are projected to be leading in 227 ridings across the country, a gain of three since last week and they highest the party has been in the model — not by a lot, mind you, as the party hit 226 seats in the April 21 update. But a new high is a new high.

(Apologies to readers for two newsletters in a single day, but this just dropped in my inbox!) On Sunday, Avi Lewis won 56% of the vote on the first ballot of the NDP leadership race. Heather McPherson finished second with 29.5%, followed by Tanille Johnston at 7.3%, Rob Ashton at 5.9% and Tony McQuail with 1.3%. The NDP leadership vote was a ranked ballot, meaning members could rank as many of the five candidates as they liked on their vote.

Avi Lewis has raised the most money in the NDP leadership race, suggesting that he is currently the clear front runner to replace Jagmeet Singh when the New Democrats choose their next leader on March 29. Fundraising data published today by Elections Canada, which includes all donations up to December 31, show Lewis raised $778,869, well ahead of his rivals for the top job. Edmonton MP Heather McPherson stands in second with $415,490 raised by the end of 2025.

Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Thursday morning. Last week’s announcement of an agreement between the Alberta and federal governments that could see a new west coast pipeline built certainly captured people’s attentions and could have political, economic and environmental repercussions for years (and potentially decades) to come.

Every installment of The Weekly Writ includes a short history of one of Canada’s elections. Here are the ones I have written about elections and leadership races in Alberta. This and other #EveryElectionProject hubs will be updated as more historical capsules are written. November 9, 1905 When Wilfrid Laurier, the Liberal prime minister, announced that two provinces would be carved out of the North-West Territories in 1905, it was understood that they would governed by Liberal premiers.

Polls suggest that a majority of Canadians (including British Columbians), support building a new pipeline from Alberta to the north coast of B.C. But after the resignation of Steven Guilbeault, a key minister for the Liberals in Quebec, and indications that the party’s electoral base in B.C. and elsewhere has mixed views about a new pipeline, could Mark Carney’s voter coalition be cracking — or could it grow instead?

Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Thursday morning. This is a long, detailed post with many charts, so it might be too big for your email inbox. If that’s the case, you should have a link at the bottom of your email to read the entire thing. Or, you can read it all on The Writ website. It’s often said that there is no single election in Canada.

Prime Minister Mark Carney is reportedly set to announce a new agreement with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith that could pave the way for a new pipeline to the Pacific coast. The only problem? British Columbia might not be on board. Beyond the implications for the economy and the environment, could choosing between Alberta and B.C. have electoral repercussions for the Liberals?

Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Thursday morning. With the budget getting (barely) passed on Monday, the potential for a holiday election has been taken off the table. But the way the vote broke down does not suggest that an election will be off the table for very long.