TR Monitor

Bank of America has warned that the US dollar could depreciate this year. Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) said that expected interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve would reduce the cost of hedging against dollar weakness, potentially leading the dollar to lose value against most currencies this year. According to the analysts, Fed rate cuts would further narrow US interest rate differentials and lower the cost of hedging US assets against a weaker dollar.

Garanti BBVA has released the results of its “Card Payments in Türkiye 2025” report. According to the study, total spending made with debit and credit cards rose by 51.9% year on year to ₺24.062 trillion. Throughout the year, ₺6.706 trillion in e-commerce spending was carried out via credit cards. Of this amount, 65.6% consisted of lump sum payments, while 34.4% were made in installments.

Ada Ünlü As someone who was born and grew up in Istanbul and spent 17 years there, I only truly understood its beauty and what the city means to me after spending five years living in other cities and countries. When I was living in Istanbul, I never felt like I fully belonged. I attended a French school, was more integrated into French culture, and dreamed of living in Paris after graduating from high school. However, after leaving, I began to realize the importance Istanbul holds in my life.

Russia has emerged as Türkiye’s largest supplier of wheat. Shipments in November reached their highest level in the past year and a half, with Russia accounting for nearly 70% of Türkiye’s total grain imports. Russia exported wheat worth $189.4 million to Türkiye in November last year, marking the highest level since the summer of 2023. On a monthly basis, exports rose by 17%, while year on year growth surged 25 fold. In the same period a year earlier, wheat exports stood at just $7.6 million.

BY ÖZDER ŞEYDA UYANIK Gold prices surged by 67% in 2025, ending the year with a series of record highs. In 2026, the upward momentum and record breaking trend continue not only in gold but also in other precious metals such as silver and platinum. Since the beginning of the week, spot gold has risen by nearly 3%, while the gold certificate traded on Borsa Istanbul (ALTINS1) has declined sharply.

John Williams, President of the New York Fed, defended Jerome Powell. Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, Williams said Powell represents public service within the Federal Reserve’s 13 year leadership structure and praised his record of calmly steering the Federal Reserve through periods of high uncertainty. Williams added that Powell has proven himself to be a man of impeccable integrity.

BY EVRİM KÜÇÜK The possibility of a U.S. intervention in Iran has once again brought the Strait of Hormuz into focus, as it raises the risk that Tehran could disrupt one of the world’s most critical energy transit routes. The prospect of Venezuela resuming oil exports has helped balance oil prices, but markets are not overlooking mounting supply risks linked to escalating unrest in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

Commerzbank said the dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate could move toward 44 by the end of the first quarter of the year. In an assessment of current market conditions, Commerzbank said that further interest rate cuts would not support the Turkish lira, although it expects the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye to deliver a 150 basis point rate cut at its January meeting. The bank also forecast that the USD/TRY pair could climb toward the 44 level by the end of the quarter.

Speaking at an event organized by the Independent Industrialists’ and Businessmen’s Association (MÜSİAD), Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek told business representatives not to expect everything from the state, stressing that there are limits to what the state can do. Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek spoke at MÜSİAD’s event titled “2025 Review and 2026 Expectations.” Addressing business leaders, Şimşek said companies should not rely entirely on government support.

Industrial production increased by 2.5% in November, following contractions over the previous two months, marking the strongest growth in the past six months.