The UK in a Changing Europe

Heather Rolfe aruges that campaigners for a closer relationship with the EU will find it challenging to engage young people in a debate that has passed them by. In the months following the Brexit vote it was widely noted that older people had swung the vote to Leave while young people had largely voted to remain. Almost three-quarters (73%) of 18–24-year-olds voted Remain, and only 27% Leave, compared to a 60%/40% split among the over 65s.

To mark the publication of the latest edition of the Policy Landscape 2026, Anand Menon and Ruth Curtice reflect on the key policy challenges confronting the UK. Andy Burnham has got off to a decent start as Prime Minister. Yet this early success has been largely ‘vibes based’.

As Parliament returns from recess, there is no shortage of policy challenges confronting Andy Burnham’s new government. The three fundamental challenges that recent governments have struggled to grapple with – low growth (GDP per capita is no higher than it was before the pandemic), high debt (£1 of every £12 the government spends is on debt interest) and poor public services  (Magistrates’ courts now have a backlog of over 370,000 cases) – have not gone away.

Sten Rynning and Anne Ingemann Johansen look at the day-to-day work being done in Norway as a frontline state to counter the threat posed by Russia and how this contributes to European security. What a difference a few decades make. In 1990, “not one inch” reflected an idea, most famously tried by Secretary of State James Baker to soothe Soviet sensibilities, that European stability depended on Western restraint.

Parliament is back and we will learn whether the new Burnham government can deliver on its ambitious promises to address the cost of living. A number of other tricky policy choices will also confront our (relatively) new Prime Minister. Can the government deliver on its agenda in a way that resonates with the public? How are opposition parties faring ? Will Labour’s recovery in the polls last? And what can we expect from the next few months in British politics?

Jamie Trinidad KC explains how the implementation of the UK-EU Agreement in respect of Gibraltar agreed by the UK and EU will affect both Gibraltar and Spain and the border between the two. Brexit was widely regarded as a disaster in Gibraltar. In the 2016 referendum, 96% of Gibraltarian voters chose Remain, on a turnout of 84%. Gibraltar is British by political choice, but it is geographically and culturally European.

Ali Ahmadi, Catherine Barnard and Fiona Costello argue that, contrary to common media narratives, there is no clear link between increased migration and higher crime rates. The media often associates migrants, particularly asylum seekers and refugees, with criminality. A study of news coverage in Canada, the UK, and the US found recurring negative themes, including describing migrants as ‘rapists and criminals,’ and linking migrants with ‘terrorism’. But what does evidence say?

Global shocks and the international and domestic effects that follow continue to cause disruption across the world. Fundamental questions remain about how governments can tackle these challenges, while dealing simultaneously with urgent domestic priorities and impatient electorates. Can governments deal with the costs of rising defence and security commitments? What can we expect from the midterms in the US and the remainder of Trump’s term as President?

Caroline Gray outlines some of the key lessons that can be drawn from Spain’s experience of fiscal devolution between regions. Prime Minister Andy Burnham wants to give mayors in England the power to retain a share of locally raised income tax and business rates.

Vilija Vėlyvytė argues that the UK-US medicines deal which will see the NHS pay more for new medicines is an unexpected cost of Brexit. Earlier this year, the government published the terms of the UK–US medicines deal agreed late last year. The deal secures zero tariffs on UK pharmaceutical exports to the US for three years but commits the NHS to paying substantially higher prices for new medicines. This deal should be understood as one of Brexit’s hidden costs.