AgriView

One of the major points of discussion amongst other analysts and economists this past week was the likely impact of the expected El Niño on South Africa’s agriculture and consumer food price inflation in 2027. The concerns are understandable, as the latest weather forecasts continue to signal that we are heading towards a severe El Niño. Its arrival will coincide with South Africa’s 2026-27 summer crop season, which starts in mid-October.

Global food prices have slightly eased in June 2026, after an uptick over the past few months driven by concerns about the war in the Middle East and a likely drought in some parts of the world. The FAO’s Global Food Price Index, a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities, fell mildly by 0.3% from May, and is now at 130 points. Sugar, grains, and dairy products were the key drivers of the easing in global food prices.

South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee has lifted the country’s 2025-26 soybean harvest to a new record 3.0 million tonnes. This is largely due to higher yields in some regions and large-area plantings (the harvest is up 9% y/y). For those who haven’t been following the South African soybean market for some time, it is probably fair to narrate our soybean production journey briefly. South Africa’s soybean crop has grown notably over the years, as the chart shows.