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Articles by Active equities
Water: Guard it with your life
On World Water Day, Lewis Pugh highlights the importance of looking after the fresh water arteries of our world. Water, water everywhere, yet not a drop to drink. The desperate cry from a sailor stranded on his becalmed ship in the middle of a vast ocean is from Coleridge’s ‘Rime of the Ancient Mariner’. Surrounded by salty ocean water, the mariner is dying of thirst for want of fresh drinking water. I’ve known the feeling. The thirst that builds up during a long-distance swim feels immense.
High time for high sea protection
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Japan versus global inflation
13 Jul 2022 3 min read Numerous factors are putting upward pressure on prices in Japan, and the yen is acting as an escape valve for the central bank's yield curve control policy. Japan stands out as one of the few economies that appears impervious to the wave of inflation washing over the world economy.
Pervasive gloom: just how bad is the US outlook?
Markets have embraced a stagflationary outlook so far this year. Inflation has surprised to the upside, central banks have continued their hawkish pivots and the chatter around recession risks has grown louder. Our views on US recession risks have only marginally shifted up from early April partly because we expected terminal rates to re-price higher and for inflation to prove more persistent. Kicking the tyres of the US economy So, what happens next?
How is the market reacting to global rate hikes?
Recent action by key central banks has come in more hawkish than anticipated. What does this mean for investors? After its meeting on Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a 75bps hike to interest rates – its largest single move since 1994. A day later, the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank followed suit, lifting rates 25bps and 50bps respectively. Meanwhile, the ECB is all but certain to raise rates at its July meeting.
Taking stock of our bullish view
14 Feb 2022 3 min read Taking a step back from day-to-day market movements, we have reflected on our team's overall investment strategy outlook and economic thinking. An update of our established framework of recession indicators suggests that the economy has moved into late cycle much faster than we expected. This makes our bullish view on equities more tactical than it was before.
Countdown to 2022: starter for 10
22 Dec 2021 5 min read 2021 was another year full of twists and turns, so what will 2022 bring? As we hastily forge our new year’s resolutions, our attention has turned to what’s next. Here are 10 themes our Asset Allocation team will be mulling over before welcoming in the new year.
Omicron and markets: what we are watching
29 Nov 2021 2 min read We will be focusing on three key questions around the spread of a new variant of COVID-19. The COVID-19 situation had not been looking good across Europe anyway, but at least there was the hope that the shift into an endemic scenario was not far away, especially with a re-acceleration in vaccinations, boosters and the availability of antiviral drugs. This may well still be the case, but the emergence of a new variant of concern has added to the tail risk that it isn’t.
Three questions every ESG multi-asset investor needs to ask
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Illiquidity, risk aversion and market bubbles: where we are now
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Why we need a roadmap for the global agriculture and land-use sector
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