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Articles by Adiah Bailey
Does Tighter Monetary Policy Tighten the Labor Market?
Home › Publications › Research [in] Brief US job vacancies increased during the pandemic, but they’ve since declined. Economists are exploring whether this is a response to rising interest rates or to other labor market factors. Primary issue From the start of the COVID-19 pandemic until the spring of 2022, job vacancies in the US increased substantially, but they’ve since declined.
The Effect of Higher Financing Costs on Job Openings and Online Job Postings
Figure 3 uses our second proxy. The x-axis here is the industry’s ratio of total liabilities to total assets, while the y-axis in each panel is identical to the ones shown in Figure 2. The results suggest that industries more exposed to tighter financial conditions (that is, industries with a higher ratio of current/total liabilities to current/total assets in the first quarter of 2022) have seen larger declines in vacancies from March 2022 until December 2022.
An Update on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
10.10.19 Loretta J. Mester Mellen Executive Speaker Series, John Carroll University, University Heights, OH (PDF ) I thank Professor William Elliott and John Carroll University for inviting me to participate in the Mellen Executive Speakers series. It was a pleasure meeting with John Carroll students earlier this afternoon, and I am looking forward to the question and answer session moderated by Jack Kleinhenz.
Has the Real-Time Reliability of Monthly Indicators Changed over Time?
(PDF ) DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-201916 Economic data are routinely revised after they are initially released. I examine the extent to which the real-time reliability of six monthly macroeconomic indicators important to policymakers has remained stable over time by studying the time-series properties of their short-term and long-term revisions. I show that the revisions to many monthly economic indicators display systematic behaviors that policymakers could build into their real-time assessments.
An Assessment of the ISM Manufacturing Price Index for Inflation Forecasting
(PDF ) The Institute for Supply Management produces a measure of pricing trends, the manufacturing price index or ISMPI, that is constructed from its periodic surveys of purchasing and supply executives. We investigate this measure’s predictive content for producer and consumer price inflation by assessing its ability to improve inflation forecasts for three broad monthly inflation measures. We find that the ISMPI has some predictive content for producer prices but not for consumer prices.
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