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Articles by Adnan Tabatabai
Why Iranians Prefer Trump Over Democrats
Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he favors diplomacy with Iran and wants to avoid conflict. Iran, for its part, has sent mixed signals about whether it thinks negotiating with the U.S. leader is a good idea.
Adnan Tabatabai
Adnan Tabatabai is a co-founder and CEO of the Germany-based Middle East think tank CARPO. As an Iran analyst, he advises European policymakers and businesses on Iran-related matters. In his role at CARPO, Tabatabai has designed and facilitated track-2 dialogue initiatives between Iran and Saudi Arabia since 2015. Additionally, he leads multi-track dialogues on regional security in West Asia and the Arabian Peninsula.
Hesham Alghannam
Saudi Political Scientist Hesham Alghannam is a Saudi political scientist and former Fulbright Fellow at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, where he received a master’s degree in international policy studies. Alghannam holds a PhD from the University of Exeter.
The Yemen Brief Podcast | Episode 7 | What Would Talks Between Iran and Saudi Arabia Mean for Yemen?
Iran and Saudi Arabia have long been cast as Gulf rivals. In their relationships with the West and their support for actors in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, they have long stood on opposing sides of regional conflicts and international security and energy policy. The Saudi-led coalition’s intervention in Yemen in 2015, and Iranian military support for the Houthi movement, see the two sides inhabiting familiar roles.
Iran’s political shake-up and Ebrahim Raisi as president – Responsible Statecraft
The shift to the far right in Iran does not appear to have gone too far for the JCPOA to remain on the table. With the electoral victory of Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi, Iran is potentially undergoing a dramatic shift in its political landscape. After eight years and two presidential terms in control of the executive branch of government, the centrist ‘Moderates’ (e’tedaaliyoun) have suffered a heavy political defeat against the conservative ‘Principlist’ (osulgeraa) camp.
From Messenger to Host
von Kawa Hassan, Adnan Tabatabai and Desirée Custers Reports of a meeting held in Baghdad on the 9th of April 2021, between Iranian and Saudi security and intelligence officials, may herald a rare positive development in a region characterized by deep mutual mistrust, ongoing armed conflict, and proxy wars.
Negotiating Hong Kong: playing chicken with millions of lives – Responsible Statecraft
In 1984, a satisfied Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher announced her government’s agreement with Deng Xiaoping’s China over the eventual return of Hong Kong in 1997. A century before, Great Britain had used its military superiority to detach Chinese territory through grant and lease for the colony of Hong Kong. But the lease would soon expire, ending London’s legal claim to the territory.
Back to square one, as the JCPOA turns five
On July 14, 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was finalised in Vienna between Iran, the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany, and the European Union as the arbiter of the negotiations. Iran's foreign minister Javad Zarif tweeted about the deal being "not a ceiling but a solid foundation" to build on.
The undeclared war against Iran – Responsible Statecraft
A series of violent attacks, involving explosions and fires, has been hitting Iran. The incidents have been too frequent and intense to be random accidents. They are part of an organized effort. Caution is always advisable in attributing responsibility for such unclaimed acts, especially for all of us outside the government channels that possibly have better information about what is going on.
Regardless of who wins in November, the US is likely to stay in Afghanistan – Responsible Statecraft
After nearly two decades trapped in an endless war in Afghanistan, a key part of Congress voted once more to extend the U.S. military’s stay in the country, as the House Armed Services Committee’s passed an amendment to make it more difficult for the Trump administration to withdraw troops — while at the same time, the Senate’s rejected of Senator Rand Paul’s proposal to withdraw all troops from the country within a year.
US relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran need a rethink, not reset – Responsible Statecraft
As the chances are growing that a Biden administration could take the reins in Washington come January 2021, so is the scrutiny of its prospective policy proposals. When it comes to foreign affairs, there seems to be little doubt among his supporters that some reassessment of U.S. priorities in the Middle East is in order.
A health crisis as an incentive to foster regional cooperation in the Persian Gulf? - Responsible Statecraft
A woman with her daughter waiting to see a doctor in Tehran, March 2020 (Amir Mardani / Shutterstock.com) Iran has been the Middle Eastern epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Islamic Republic was hit early on into the global health crisis.
The hardliner’s renaissance: Iran's pendulum politics are in full swing - Responsible Statecraft
The future composition of Iran’s parliament will be as expected by many: a striking majority of 75 percent of the 290 seats will be in the hands of the Principlists while Reformists only secured 7 percent. Some constituencies need a second round to determine the final outcome and a portion of roughly 12 percent of the majles goes to independents. Voter participation dropped to a historic low of 42.5 percent.
"Es wird hitzig diskutiert, ob man die Wahlen boykottieren soll"
18.2.2020 | Von: Adnan Tabatabai Adnan Tabatabai ist Geschäftsführer des Forschungszentrums CARPO mit Schwerpunkt Nah- und Mitteloststudien. Als Iran-Experte berät er europäische Politik und Wirtschaft zu Fragen rund um Irans Innen- und Außenpolitik. Tabatabai ist regelmäßig mit Kommentaren und Analysen zu Entwicklungen in und um Iran in den internationalen Medien vertreten. Er ist Autor des Buches "Morgen in Iran: Die Islamische Republik im Aufbruch" (2016, Edition Körber). In Iran wird am 21.
Neue Nahost-Krise: Warum Trumps Iran-Politik scheitern wird
Iran-Konflikt So gefährlich ist Trumps Eskalation für Deutschland Die USA heizen die Konflikte im Nahen Osten an. Die Gefahr eines Kriegs mit Iran wächst. Von Christiane Hoffmann, Peter Müller, Christoph Scheuermann, Fidelius Schmid, Christoph Schult
Iran Shows New Savvy in Defining Outcome of Key Nuclear Deal Meeting
Following two months of rising uncertainty about the future of the nuclear deal after President Trump decided to withdraw from the agreement despite Iran’s continued compliance with its commitments, the remaining parties to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) assembled in Vienna on Friday. The meeting of foreign minister was convened at Iran's request.
What It Will Take to Keep the Iran Deal Alive
The U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear agreement between Iran and the EU/E3+3 constitutes a strong rejection of multilateralism by the Trump administration and leaves the remaining parties of the agreement with the challenge to safeguard its survival. Europe has been ascribed a leading role in this quest, as it has arguably a much greater stake in keeping the deal alive compared to Russia and China.
Why Iran Is Not a Mideast Hegemon
For many observers, Iran emerged as the major winner of Middle East developments in 2017. They saw a “new superpower” in the region now securing military victories “outside its own borders.” Although the dynamic in places like Syria, Qatar, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen may have turned in Tehran’s favor, a closer look reveals that all of the 2017 successes bring a set of 2018 challenges. Observers should pay much more attention to these challenges in order to correct their exaggerated views of Iran.
The Logic Behind Iran’s Regional Posture
On December 3, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei convened Iran’s top military brass.
Why Iran-US war of words won't turn physical
US National Security Adviser Michael Flynn (R) announces that the White House is officially "putting Iran on notice" for a recent missile test, while White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer looks on, Washington, DC, Feb. 1, 2017. (photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images) As much as the United States' new tone toward Iran is worrisome, and as much as the Islamic Republic's Jan. 29 ballistic missile test is disconcerting, Tehran and Washington are unlikely to collide directly.
Why Tehran matters so much in Iranian politics
Iranian candidate for the parliamentary elections and leader of the List of Hope alliance Mohammad Reza Aref and his wife show their ink-stained fingers after casting their ballots in Tehran, Feb. 26, 2016. (photo by REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi) Three days after key parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections, vote counting is still ongoing in Iran. Final nationwide results are expected to be announced Feb. 29 for the assembly, and on March 1 for parliament.
Pulling the economy's strings
Every traveller that lands in Tehran becomes a customer of Iran's Revolutionary Guard. That's because the elite troops of the Islamic republic operate the Imam Khomeini International Airport, making extremely lucrative business through entry and landing fees alone. With control of the country's other air and seaports, the Revolutionary Guard – also known the "Sepah Pasdaran" – monopolises Iran's borders. They pay neither tolls nor taxes. They choose which goods to allow into the country.
Conservative regime and open-minded society
Since the Islamic revolution of 1979, opinion has been divided in the Arab world concerning Iran. At first, there was great fear that the Iranian revolution might spread to the Arab countries, which led, among other things, to the devastating war between Iran and Iraq, in turn driving Saddam Hussein's dictatorship into financial and political ruin. Saddam tried to make up for his losses with his risky occupation of Kuwait.
How Iran Views Saudi Arabia’s Regional Policies
Antagonism between regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia reached a new peak this year. The wars in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen—as well as the nuclear agreement between world powers and Iran, and the recent catastrophic stampede in Mina during the Hajj pilgrimage—have caused serious harm to Tehran-Riyadh relations.
Nuclear Talks: Paradigm Shift in Iran Foreign Policy?
During my recent trip to Tehran I had a chance to listen to and participate in discussions on both the political and societal levels about the final stages of the nuclear talks. As I discussed here in mid-February, the level of anxiety in Iran could not be higher. More importantly, the overall debate about the talks and all its details goes far beyond factional politics.
Resolving the Remaining Issues in Iran Talks
Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent member states of the UN Security Council and Germany) left the negotiating table in Lausanne last week without agreeing to a path toward a Comprehensive Joint Plan of Action (CJPOA). They are scheduled to resume their talks on March 26.
Iranians Anxious about Nuclear Talks
With the March 24 deadline approaching for a political agreement between Iran and the P5+1 (the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany), one aspect of this ongoing political issue is often neglected: the humanitarian dimension. National, regional, and global security concerns mostly drive the efforts to resolve the nuclear dispute.
New freedoms, old prohibitions
Moderates versus hardliners in Iran · 25.08.2014 Just over a year ago, the cleric Hassan Rouhani was elected president of Iran. Since then, moderate Muslims and radical Islamists have been locked in a permanent clinch. By Bahman Nirumand https://qantara.de/en/node/6577 Print Hassan Rouhani, Iran's president, recently said something that triggered a wave of protests from the country's conservatives.
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