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Articles by Alan Beaulieu
Learning Snowflake SQL and Scripting
Book description To help you on the path to becoming a Snowflake pro, this concise yet comprehensive guide reviews fundamentals and best practices for Snowflake's SQL and Scripting languages. Developers and data professionals will learn how to generate, modify, and query data in the Snowflake relational database management system as well as how to apply analytic functions for reporting.
Global Economic & Automation Outlook: Key Insights on our Post-Pandemic Future
Join us as we host the automation industry’s leading economic forecaster and leading analyst of market data as they provide updates, outlooks and predictions through 2022 and beyond. Alan Beaulieu, President of ITR Economics, will provide an outlook on how COVID-19 has impacted the future of the automation industry, as well as the overall economy. He will examine leading indicators to shed light on what to expect as we head into 2022 and beyond.
Number 30, June 2021
Sverre Raffnsøe, Alan Beaulieu, Barbara Cruikshank, Bregham Dalgliesh, Knut Ove Eliassen, Verena Erlenbusch-Anderson, Alex Feldman, Marius Gudmand-Høyer, Thomas Götselius, Robert Harvey, Robin Holt, Leonard Richard Lawlor, Daniele Lorenzini, Edward McGushin, Hernan Camilo Pulido Martinez, Giovanni Mascaretti, Johanna Oksala, Clare O'Farrell, Rodrigo Castro Orellana, Eva Bendix Petersen, Alan Rosenberg, Annika Skoglund, Dianna Taylor, Martina Tazzioli
Black Swan Events
"A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, and their severe impact ..." From Investopedia. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 virus a pandemic.
Make Plans-2012 Is Looking Good!
The U.S. banking system has made some dramatic improvements in its collective health since the 2008-09 financial crises. For the most part, banks are well capitalized. The latest Federal Reserve Board stress tests show that 15 out of 19 of the nation’s largest financial institutions can safely weather a severe downturn in the economy.
The Playing Field with China Levels in 2015
China is slowing down, Europe is struggling, and the August U.S. jobs report appeared dismal to many. The political rhetoric and wild claims made by both parties are not helping the situation. Do not be talked into taking a recessionary stance with your business. It is time to start planning on what you will do when the mild recession comes in late 2013 and in 2014.
Commencement 2014: Avoid the Noise
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors and SpaceX, knows something about perseverance and single-minded focus against challenging odds. He made a fortune, lost it, and now is making another. One piece of advice he had for this year’s USC Marshall School graduates: “Focus on signal over noise. A lot of companies get confused; they spend money on things that don’t actually make the product better.” We spend no time at ITR perusing the daily headlines for trends. News cycles wax and wane.
U.S. Economy Sees Continued Improvement
More than 25 years ago, Bill Gates said, “In three years, every product my company makes will be obsolete. The only question is whether we will make them obsolete or somebody else will.” These days, it feels more like three weeks. Personally, that is far too short a time. I am still adapting to technology changes from a year ago. Conversely, a change that is welcome is the improvement in the U.S. economy.
Heads or Tails: Understand the Economic Winds
On a flight from Oakland to Boston, tailwinds pushed our speed to 700 mph, and we arrived in Boston almost an hour early. Nice when that happens, but rare. 2013 ended with a tailwind, with annual retail sales, non-defense capital goods new orders (excluding aircraft), industrial machinery new orders, and the stock markets all reaching new highs. Annual automobile production saw its highest levels since 2003.
Economic Gifts of the Passing Year
Holidays have come and gone, some presents to be treasured, others exchanged or returned. Here’s a look at the gifts that the U.S. economy left us in 2013 and what they all mean for 2014. Economy improving. The final estimate for GDP in the third quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), was an impressive 4.1 percent on a quarter-to-quarter basis (SAAR). Growth in the first and second quarters of 2013 were 1.1 and 2.5 percent, respectively.
Oil, Oil, Toil and Trouble? Or a Timely Stimulus?
We did not see oil prices falling to $55 per barrel. What happened? A combination of economic fundamentals and strategic manipulation are at work. Soft global demand collided with expanding production in the U.S., and made price decline inevitable. OPEC’s (specifically Saudi Arabia’s) expressed intent to “maintain market share” by keeping the oil spigot wide open is a significant factor in the steepness of the decline and the tipping point that no one saw coming.
Manufacturing Surges in Bright U.S. Economy
The U.S. economy continues to be the bright spot among global economies. However, the leading indicator input we track is trending lower, signaling that a milder pace of growth will arrive as we move through the second half of the year. No recession in sight. From a global perspective, slower growth persists in Western Europe’s industrial production, extending the current trajectory of stagnant economic conditions. This will characterize 2015.
Global Economies Face Headwinds
With a series of headwinds causing turmoil, the U.S. economy has shifted onto the backside of the business cycle, into slower growth. Certainly, the U.S. is not immune to soft global demand and pricing for commodities, a strong dollar affecting exports, falling oil and stock prices, and worrisome news out of China. The full effects of the most recent issues have not (yet) altered our outlook for 2015. Overall, we anticipate the U.S. will have a soft landing this year. Jobs and wages are rising.
Growth Slowing, but No Need to Panic
At just 2.0 percent, April marked the slowest year-over-year rise since July 2013 in the monthly U.S. Industrial Production Index, confirming our outlook that U.S. industrial production will slow noticeably through the latter half of the year. On an annual average basis, industrial production is still up 3.8 percent from a year ago, but the rate of rise is clearly diminishing. Along with slowing economic growth come negative emotional reactions and downbeat media headlines.
Strong U.S. Dollar Puts Pressure on Market
With employment gains causing consumer spending to shift upward and lower prices at the pump providing more disposable personal income for discretionary spending, the U.S. economy is expected to grow through 2016. However, signs of weakness are clearly evident in the first quarter of 2015. The strength of the U.S. dollar, weakness outside of North America, and decelerating activity in the oil patch will sap some of the strength from U.S. industrial production.
Strong Manufacturing Production Predicted for 2015, 2016
A combination of strong growth in jobs plus replacement demand for equipment from businesses will provide a stable base for overall economic growth, according to a new report released by The MAPI Foundation, the research affiliate of the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation. The group released its quarterly economic forecast, predicting that inflation-adjusted gross domestic product will expand 2.8% in 2015 and 3.0% in 2016.
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