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Enjoyed the episode? Want to listen later? Subscribe by searching for “80k After Hours” wherever you get podcasts, or click one of the buttons below: I think the key consideration that I end up highlighting to people who I think are trying to do the best thing right now is something like: It might be that setting yourself up well to do more good later looks like not directly having as much of an impact right now. Because probably learning is pretty good if you want to have an impact later.
Advanced AI systems could lead to existential risks via several different pathways, some of which may not fit neatly into traditional risk forecasts. Many previous forecasts, for example the well known report by Joe Carlsmith, decompose a failure story into a conjunction of different claims, and in doing so risk missing some important dangers.
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