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Articles by Alex Nae
El Niño is heating up. Do equities care?
Alex Nae, MSc. Quantitative Research Analyst, Global Investment Research, FTSE Russell Lee Clements Head of Applied Sustainable Investment Research · FTSE Russell El Niño has well-documented effects on food production, inflation and economic activity, but the historical relationship with country equity returns is far less consistent.
Made in Europe: Turning European demand into European production
Europe is entering a more interventionist phase of industrial policy as tariffs, state support and policies favouring domestic production play a larger role in the global economy. Made in Europe (MiE) is part of that response, with measures such as the Industrial Accelerator Act seeking to direct more of the EU’s roughly €2tn annual public-procurement market towards European production.
Mexico: The manufacturing hub of North America
Tae Yoon Kim, CFA, FRM Manager, Global Investment Research Alex Nae, M.Sc Quantitative Research Analyst, Global Investment Research A beneficiary of nearshoring, Mexico is a “real economy” market with indirect exposure to the AI infrastructure build-out Recent relative outperformance driven by industrials and materials, with supportive valuations and a rate-cutting cycle The 2026 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) [note1] review is the key near-term event, likely to shape future...
More than a barrel trade: Brazil
Alex Nae, M.Sc. Quantitative Research Analyst, Global Investment Research, FTSE Russell Tae Yoon Kim, CFA, FRM Manager, Global Investment Research, FTSE Russell Over the past 12 months[note1], FTSE Brazil has outperformed FTSE All-World and FTSE Emerging by 36.2% and 36.4% respectively, supported by strong fundamentals, attractive valuations and a resilient domestic backdrop.
Sanae Takaichi: Can the rock star of Japanese politics drum to the beat of the markets?
David McNay, CFA Director, Global Investment Research Alex Nae, M.Sc Quantitative Research Analyst, Global Investment Research Prime Minister Takaichi leveraged her high approval ratings to steer her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to a supermajority in the Lower House – the first single party supermajority in 40 years. A supermajority isn’t just a superlative – it provides the PM the ability to override the Upper House, reducing political friction.
Stablecoins - effective bridge between fiat and crypto, or a bridge too far?
Robin Marshall, M.A., M.Phil This paper assesses Stablecoins’ rapid growth, their stability, and correlation with other assets, and risks to financial stability.
Brazil’s realignment: From economic stagnation to strategic relevance
Brazil has quietly shifted from years of stagnation to a position of renewed economic relevance, with policy reform and disciplined monetary management driving stability. Resilient domestic demand and a balanced commodity base have supported growth that now outpaces many major economies. Low valuations, shifting sector dynamics and moderate global correlations position Brazil as a distinctive component in global equity allocations.
The digital economy − critical minerals and equity markets
Rotation into FTSE 250 shows confidence on a UK recovery Investors pivot to FTSE 250 as UK recovery gains traction. Mid-caps outperform large caps on domestic growth, sector rotation, and easing inflation.
Brazilian equities: A market in transition
Key takeaways: Brazil’s macro landscape is improving: A decade after policy-driven stagnation, Brazil is regaining investor credibility through fiscal reforms, disinflation progress, and more consistent monetary policy Domestic demand is driving growth: Despite external headwinds, strong retail sales, rising employment, and a resilient industrial base are supporting Brazil’s economic momentum Diversified exports strengthen resilience: Brazil’s external position benefits from a balanced...
Gold’s strategic revival in a fragmented world: A modern portfolio component
Globalisation may be slowing – Rising tariffs and a trend toward competing economic blocs suggest that the open-trade framework of recent decades is being rewired and increasingly complex - this may affect supply chains and investment returns. Gold’s role as a diversifier is reemerging – Recent central-bank purchases—especially in Asia, Africa, and South America—indicate growing interest in bullion’s low counterparty risk and historically low correlation with traditional assets.
Economic policy uncertainty and US equity volatility
Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) is a relevant source of economic uncertainty especially given where we are in the current US election cycle. We analyze an EPU index and find that changes in the index are related to Russell 1000 volatility. In past election cycles, EPU has risen in the period leading up to the election but dropped dramatically a few months after the election.
Multi-asset return correlations – a new regime, or an era of instability?
Robin Marshall, M.A., M.
Global supply chain pressures - is it different this time, or just a matter of timing?
Fears of another global supply chain shock have been prompted by Red Sea shipping disruption, and increased geo-political tension in the Middle East. But supply chain pressures have increased only modestly, to date, with pressure indices mean-reverting to pre-Covid levels. Indeed, the easing of supply-chain pressures in tradeable goods in 2023 has driven sharp declines in goods inflation, suggesting supply-chains are more resilient than assumed post-Covid.
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