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Articles by Allan Gregg
Allan Gregg: At the G7 meeting, look for Canada to do something unusual: Lead
Foreign policy, international affairs and Canada’s role in the world have rarely been top-of-mind concerns for most Canadians. In 1911 Liberal Wilfrid Laurier lost an election by proposing lower tariffs with the United States. 77 years later Brian Mulroney won re-election while endorsing pretty much the same proposal.
Two pollsters talk about why they think Carney could be a transformational leader
When the federal election campaign was underway, the Star invited two eminent pollsters — David Coletto of Abacus Data and Allan Gregg of Earnscliffe Strategies — to discuss what they’ve learned from the election results. Here’s what they had to say: Allan Gregg: Are you looking at Canadian sociopolitical culture differently today than you did before this campaign started? David Coletto: I think for me it was a reminder that things can change really quickly.
What’s behind Mark Carney’s aggressive rhetoric toward Donald Trump?
There are many reasons why Mark Carney became the prime minister of Canada — and one of the biggest is Mark Carney himself. While perhaps initially more a consequence of luck than talent, Donald Trump’s threats towards Canada changed the terms of the election. Canadians were looking for a leader who could chart the waters of international turmoil and uncertainty.
What’s behind Mark Carney’s aggressive rhetoric toward Donald Trump?
There are many reasons why Mark Carney became the prime minister of Canada — and one of the biggest is Mark Carney himself. While perhaps initially more a consequence of luck than talent, Donald Trump’s threats towards Canada changed the terms of the election. Canadians were looking for a leader who could chart the waters of international turmoil and uncertainty.
Pierre Poilievre needs to stay as leader of the Conservative Party. Here’s why
By now, it is pretty clear that the 25-point lead Pierre Poilievre enjoyed in the polls a mere four months ago had very little to do with him. He looked like a shoo-in to be the Prime Minister of Canada because he faced an extremely unpopular opponent and was catering to a very disgruntled electorate who were focused on their personal grievances. But remove the opponent, have voter’s concerns shift from past angers to future uncertainties and his massive electoral edge disappeared.
Pierre Poilievre needs to stay as leader of the Conservative Party. Here’s why
By now, it is pretty clear that the 25-point lead Pierre Poilievre enjoyed in the polls a mere four months ago had very little to do with him. He looked like a shoo-in to be the Prime Minister of Canada because he faced an extremely unpopular opponent and was catering to a very disgruntled electorate who were focused on their personal grievances. But remove the opponent, have voter’s concerns shift from past angers to future uncertainties and his massive electoral edge disappeared.
What kind of leadership will Canada have on Tuesday? Here are four different scenarios
Without pretending any of us can predict the exact outcome of elections before they actually occur, if the polls and pundits prove right, the most likely scenario we will wake up to on Tuesday is a Liberal majority government. Larger trends from nation-wide and regional polling indicate this will occur due to the collapse of NDP and Bloc Quebecois support, which would swing to the Liberals.
‘It’s not over’: Two pollsters explain how Mark Carney pulled ahead — and why he shouldn’t get too comfortable
With the federal election campaign well underway, the Star invited two eminent pollsters — David Coletto of Abacus Data and Allan Gregg of Earnscliffe Strategies — to discuss what they’ve gleaned from survey data so far. Here’s what they had to say: David Coletto: This election feels like it’s turning into a contest of duelling perspectives, duelling questions, duelling mindsets. For much of 2023 and 2024, I felt that most Canadians had a scarcity mindset.
Pierre Poilievre has a problem with women. Mark Carney has a problem with men
It is nearly impossible to win a federal election unless you are able to attract two key constituencies of “swing voters” — blue collar workers and new Canadians. This formula has been the key to the Liberals’ success and the Conservatives’ failure in the last three federal elections and has reshaped how all parties campaign. This time around, however, it appears another cleavage in federal politics could be even more important in determining the outcome.
Women have a problem with Pierre Poilievre. Men have a problem with Liberals
It is nearly impossible to win a federal election unless you are able to attract two key constituencies of “swing voters” — blue collar workers and new Canadians. This formula has been the key to the Liberals’ success and the Conservatives’ failure in the last three federal elections and has reshaped how all parties campaign. This time around, however, it appears another cleavage in federal politics could be even more important in determining the outcome.
Carney is winning — but don’t bet against a Poilievre comeback
If you were a betting person and wanted to place a wager on the upcoming federal election, my advice would be to keep your money in your pocket — at least for the time being. Forget, for a moment, the wild polling swings of the past two months. Go a little deeper into the numbers, and you’ll find more important insights.
How will Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney play their new hands?
Professional gamblers accept that you play with the cards you are dealt. That maxim, of course, dictates that you can’t control what cards are in your hand; the measure of your talent is the strategy you devise as the game goes on. The political deck has been shuffled in Canada and the Liberals and Conservatives are now holding very different hands than they were a short three months ago.
We pollsters missed something big in the Ontario election. The federal Liberals should pay attention
As a pollster, I must confess that I was shocked by the results of last week’s Ontario election. Not by who won, but by who came in second and third. There’s a lesson in the result — one the federal Liberals should be paying close attention to as they prepare for a likely imminent election. That lesson? The common wisdom that candidates matter far less than parties seems to be less true today than in the past. Just look at the Ontario NDP.
Doug Ford has a shot at becoming Ontario’s greatest premier. Will he squander the chance?
Typically, calling an early election that appears to be both unnecessary and opportunist does not go well for an incumbent. Both David Peterson and Justin Trudeau were ahead in the polls when they voluntarily shortened their terms: Peterson went down to outright defeat in 1990 while Trudeau returned a status quo Parliament that looked pretty much like it did before he called the election in 2021. So far, it appears that Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservatives are about to avoid this fate.
Allan R. Gregg: 1993 redux? Not necessarily. How the failing Liberals may just win again
Since Justin Trudeau resigned and plunged his party into a leadership convention that many suspect will take place mere weeks before the next election, there have been many comparisons between Brian Mulroney’s late-term decision to step aside as prime minister and whether the Liberal Party’s fate in 2025 will be the same as the Progressive Conservatives in 1993, reduced to just two seats in the House of Commons.
Opinion: Years of corporate handouts achieved nothing. It’s time for something different
Open this photo in gallery: A fall convocation ceremony at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, B.C., on Nov. 21, 2012.DARRYL DYCK/The Globe and Mail Please log in to bookmark this story.Log InCreate Free Account Allan Gregg is a principal at Earnscliffe Strategies and an adjunct professor at Carleton University’s Schools of Public Administration and Political Management.
'The Moral Economy': Allan Gregg's Address to Windsor Arts Grads
Notes for remarks to the University of Windsor Arts, Humanities and Social Science Convocation on June 4, 2024. By Allan R. Gregg June 7, 2024 Madame Chancellor, Chair of the Board, Mr. President, Grandaunts, Honoured Guests, and Proud Parents … thank you for this great honour. And thank you, Dr Cheryl Collier for that kind introduction. Not only was it very gracious but I imagine it also offered relief to many parents and students who were watching the stage horrified and wondering ….
February 2005 | The Walrus
Pierre Trudeau tried to stop a cycle of blackmail, where one province held up the national interest by bargaining solely for its own parish. Paul Martin’s new health accord is an invitation not just for one blackmailer, but for ten.
Solving the Problems with Polling
Among the issues that have dominated the political and policy discourse over the past decade, the state of post-internet public opinion polling has been among the most contentious. Given the misinformation and propaganda fogging the political landscape, are polls still an accurate reflection of reality? We went to one of the best, long-time pollsters in the business, Allan Gregg, who also happens to be widely recognized as an inveterate straight shooter, for answers. Allan R.
Why 'campaigns matter'
The notion that “campaigns matter” has become one of the most widely accepted maxims in modern politics. To bear this out, political junkies need to look no further than the Aug. 17 Nova Scotia election that saw the provincial Progressive Conservative Party win a majority government, having started the campaign some 20 points behind the incumbent Liberals. As we enter week four of the federal campaign, the testimony to this claim seems to be even more compelling.
Identity Crisis | The Walrus
Under the cover of normalcy, on July 7, 2005, the heart of London was bombed and dozens of people were killed by young Muslim men who had grown up in the same environment as their victims. The process of acculturation—at British schools and, one presumes, local pubs or Soho restaurants—had failed, and Britons were left wondering how a cluster of radicals dedicated to terrorism and to distant ideologies could spring from the nation they all share.
Desperately Seeking Ideas
While even the most jaded cynics associate spring with hope and renewal, Canadian voters—given the early 2005 political calendar—may be forgiven if they failed to share the optimism of the season. At 7:02 p.m. on April 21, Prime Minister Paul Martin delivered a short, pre-recorded address to the nation. Beyond the sponsorship scandal, Canadians could only guess what the substance of the speech would be, and many were fearful.
Managing the Re-Opening of the Economy: Expect a More Divided Electorate
Doug Anderson, Allan Gregg and Stephanie Constable May 28, 2020 More than two months after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau began briefing Canadians daily on the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic that has now killed thousands of Canadians, Earnscliffe Strategy Group can report on the mood of Canadians expressed in a recent national poll.
How to Save Democracy
Over the course of tracking public opinion for twenty years, the private polls I conducted for my political clients showed that the number of Canadians who held at least a “somewhat” positive view of politicians fell from 60 percent to less than 20 percent. Today, Ipsos-Reid reports that a grand total of 9 percent of Canadians describe politicians as “extremely trustworthy.” How is it that the people we choose to lead us are now routinely considered venal and unworthy of our following?
1984 in 2012 – The assault on reason - iPolitics
Allan Gregg is Chairman of Harris/Decima, and is considered a pioneer in the integration of consulting, public-opinion research, public affairs and communications. A frequent commentator on radio, television and in print, he is also an entrepreneur with diverse interests in Canadian culture.
What Canadians think of the news media - Policy Options
Canadians value journalism’s role in democracy, but are largely unaware that the news media is in dire financial straits. In preparing its report The Shattered Mirror, the Public Policy Forum partnered with the Canadian Journalism Foundation and engaged the Earnscliffe Strategy Group to conduct research that would provide a consumer perspective on the subject in question: news, trust and democracy in the digital age.
Why pollsters didn’t see Trump coming
Another election, another occasion to ask the same question: Why did no one see this coming? The polls suggested an American presidential election outcome that was very different than the one that transpired. In fact, as Real Clear Politics has pointed out, only four of the last 67 nationwide polls conducted towards the end of the campaign had Trump leading.
Paul Martin | The Walrus
Pierre Trudeau tried to stop a cycle of blackmail, where one province held up the national interest by bargaining solely for its own parish. Paul Martin’s new health accord is an invitation not just for one blackmailer, but for ten.
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