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Articles by André Dragosch
Bitcoin: Leads Junk Bond Credit Cycles
André Dragosch flags Bitcoin as the canary in the coal mine for credit markets after Matt Crosby’s chart showed BTC cycles turning ahead of junk bond appetite shifts. Source Analysis Bitcoin is the canary in the coal mine for credit markets, André Dragosch posted on 1 November 2026, quoting Matt Crosby’s observation that BTC cycles have repeatedly turned before downturns and recoveries in junk-bond appetite.
Bitcoin Core: AI Agents Surface Minor Issues
Analysis Bitcoin Core remains one of the most scrutinized codebases, yet AI agents are now accelerating its security reviews. Jeff Lunglhofer detailed how 16 agents running on five top models spent a week probing v32.0rc1 and surfaced only two minor items, both handled through responsible disclosure. Price action on the 4h chart shows BTC trading inside the Bollinger Bands with the upper band at $81936.55 acting as immediate resistance while the lower band at $79140.17 offers short-term support.
Bitwise: Bitcoin CAGR at 34.3% Through 2036
Bitwise forecasts a 34.3% annual Bitcoin return through 2036 with a base case of $1.6 million, contrasting JP Morgan's 10% CAGR projection over the next decade in its latest capital market assumptions. Source Analysis Bitwise projects Bitcoin delivering a 34.3% CAGR through 2036 and a base-case price of $1.6 million, well above JP Morgan's 10% estimate for the coming decade.
Bitcoin: On-Chain Data Signals Early Bull Market
Analysis Bitcoin on-chain metrics continue to reflect an early-stage bull market according to André Dragosch, even after recent months of consolidation. Dragosch will present supporting data during the Bitwise monthly webinar on 04/11/26 at 4 pm CET alongside Matt Hougan and Bradley Duke, focusing on persistent buyer accumulation, dormant long-term supply, and macro patterns that favor higher prices despite bond-market stress and midterm uncertainty.
André Dragosch: Bitcoin Acts as Monetary Hedge
André Dragosch states Bitcoin now functions as a monetary hedge driven by global liquidity cycles rather than a speculative tech stock, citing its evolution since 2014 to spot ETFs and his background in traditional finance and financial history. Source Analysis Bitcoin now functions as a monetary hedge driven by global liquidity cycles, according to André Dragosch, PhD, who spent over a decade in traditional finance before shifting focus to digital assets in 2014.
Bitcoin: Dragosch Sees Further Equity Unwind Risk
Analysis Bitcoin faces elevated short-term volatility after André Dragosch noted that equity positioning retains further downside potential even after recent unwinds, with cross-asset risk appetite turning bearish but still milder than the tariff tantrum or yen carry unwind episodes. CTA data from Deutsche Bank via ISABELNET shows the S&P 500 at the 87th percentile, Nasdaq-100 at the 66th, and Russell 2000 at the 30th, underscoring that crowded long exposure has not fully cleared.
Bitcoin: Mystery Whale Buys $17B Near $58K
Analysis The Block highlighted comments from Richard Byworth of BYZ Partners that a single whale acquired $17 billion in Bitcoin near $58K, outside known corporate and ETF channels.
Gold: Equilibrium Price at $3,200 via Money Supply
André Dragosch stated that gold's equilibrium price implied by global money supply stands at around $3,200, matching technical targets discussed by James Van Straten. Source Analysis André Dragosch noted that the equilibrium price for gold implied by global money supply sits at around $3,200, aligning with James Van Straten's view on the metal's next stop at the 200-week moving average after breaking $4,000.
Bitcoin: Resilience Forecast on Bond Yield Easing
Analysis Bitcoin should hold up better than other risk assets during the current selloff, according to @Andre_Dragosch, because lower bond yields already reflect shifting rate-cut expectations.
Dragosch: Cryptoassets Insensitive to Midterm Odds
André Dragosch examined Polymarket midterm election probabilities and determined that none of the top 10 cryptoassets exhibits a statistically significant relationship, with R-squared values mostly below 1%. Source Analysis André Dragosch reviewed sensitivities of major cryptoassets to Polymarket midterm election odds and found no statistically significant links in the most probable scenarios of a Democratic sweep at 67% or Republican Senate with Democratic House at 25%.
Bitcoin: Growth Repricing Keeps Downside Risks Elevated
Analysis André Dragosch notes that the recent repricing in growth expectations remains incomplete, with tight monetary policy likely to drive further downside and sustain elevated risks for Bitcoin in the near term, consistent with its historical correlation to global growth forecasts during the 2022 rate-hike period.
JPM Coin: Ethereum Mainnet Extension
Analysis JPM Coin debuted on JPMorgan's proprietary enterprise blockchain in 2019. The stablecoin reached Base in 2025 and now operates on Ethereum Mainnet, according to @Andre_Dragosch. The post stresses that market participants should track deployments rather than rhetoric from the bank. Hourly candlesticks (about 96 bars), same endpoint as our cryptocurrency price pages. Numbers below refresh from 1-minute klines. More ETH news, ETH price prediction and analysis
Bitcoin: Outperforms Major Indices Amid AI Sell-Off
André Dragosch states that Bitcoin has outperformed every major equity index and ETF in October amid the AI sell-off, countering the view of it as a leveraged NASDAQ play. Source Analysis Bitcoin has outperformed every major equity index and ETF in October amid the AI sell-off so far, according to André Dragosch.
Bitcoin Policy Institute: AI Models Pick BTC for Savings
Bitcoin Policy Institute Q3 update shows AI models selecting Bitcoin for savings tasks in 70.8 percent of responses while favoring stablecoins for payments in 73.5 percent, per analysis posted by André Dragosch on October 15 2026.
LLM Token Index: Hits New All-Time Low at 97 Cents
The LLM Token Expenditure Index from Silicon Data fell to 97 cents on Monday, marking its lowest level since creation late last year and more than half below its summer peak, per analyst André Dragosch. Source Analysis LLM Token Expenditure Index from Silicon Data dropped to 97 cents on Monday, its lowest reading since launch late last year and more than half below the summer high.
CRWV: 1117 bps CDS Spread Signals 42.5% Default Risk
André Dragosch stated that the 1117 bps 5Y CDS spread on CRWV already implies a 42.5% default probability over the next five years. Source Analysis CRWV trades with a 1117 bps five-year CDS spread that already prices in a 42.5% cumulative default probability over the next five years, André Dragosch noted.
Anthropic: Perp Drops 14% From ATH on Binance
Analysis Anthropic perp on Binance dropped roughly 14% from its recent ATH, André Dragosch noted, adding that the move tracks falling IPO odds. Hourly candlesticks (about 96 bars), same endpoint as our cryptocurrency price pages. Numbers below refresh from 1-minute klines. More PERP news, PERP price prediction and analysis
Anthropic: Open-Source AI Drives Token Price Deflation
André Dragosch posted that token price deflation among Anthropic and OpenAI will most likely continue because open-source models from DeepSeek, Alibaba, Moonshot AI and Nvidia undercut proprietary costs by wide margins. Source Analysis André Dragosch noted that token price deflation among Anthropic and OpenAI will most likely continue. Open-source AI is undercutting Big AI margins, with DeepSeek V4 Pro costing over 50 times less per token than Anthropic Fable 5.
Bitcoin ETPs: $40B Inflows Linked to 100% Gains
Analysis Bitcoin ETPs have drawn more capital than gold ETPs this year, with André Dragosch estimating that +$40B net inflows have historically coincided with approximately +100% performance. Bitcoin ETPs continue to attract flows while significant rotation potential remains from global semiconductor ETFs if the AI trade consolidates further, potentially releasing another ~$40B. Hourly candlesticks (about 96 bars), same endpoint as our cryptocurrency price pages.
Bitcoin ETPs: Outpace Gold Inflows With $40B Rotation Potential
Analysis Bitcoin ETPs have pulled ahead of gold ETPs in net inflows this year, according to André Dragosch. Dragosch notes roughly $40 billion could still rotate from global semiconductor ETFs into Bitcoin products if the AI trade keeps consolidating. On the 4h chart, BTC trades at $82785.86 inside the Bollinger Bands with the upper resistance at $84348.39 and lower support at $82349.5. The EMA50 at $83441.1 acts as immediate resistance while the EMA200 at $82330.8 offers deeper support.
CoreWeave: Unsecured Notes Yield 15% in HY Market
André Dragosch reported that CoreWeave’s unsecured notes reached 1,000bps spread-to-worst and now yield roughly 15 percent, prompting debate over AI infrastructure pricing. Source Analysis CoreWeave unsecured notes hit 1,000bps STW and now yield about 15 percent, according to a post shared by André Dragosch on 13 October 2026.
Bitcoin: Korean Pivot Signals Global Kimchi Premium Spread
Analysis Bitcoin is drawing capital from Korean equities as KOSPI falls roughly 9 percent across two sessions while the cryptocurrency drops only 2 percent before fully recovering, according to André Dragosch citing Teddy Fusaro.
Dragosch: AI Hyperscaler Circularity Raises Bust Risks
André Dragosch flags circular cash flows among Microsoft, Amazon and Google plus $2.3 trillion in RPOs tied to OpenAI and Anthropic, warning that credit markets may soon question whether AI capital expenditures can generate adequate returns.
Dragosch: AI Circular Financing Risks Bubble
André Dragosch flags circular capital flows inside the AI stack where Microsoft, Amazon and Google pour billions into startups that immediately repurchase compute from the same providers, turning reported earnings partly into accounting gains rather than operating cash.
Bitcoin: One Year Since $19B Liquidation Event
André Dragosch marks the one-year anniversary of crypto's largest liquidation event that erased over $19 billion in 24 hours and hit 1.6 million accounts. Source Analysis Bitcoin marks the one-year anniversary of crypto's largest liquidation event, with $19B+ erased in 24 hours including $16B in longs, 1.6 million accounts hit and roughly 87 percent long positions according to André Dragosch. The flush cleared excess leverage and left a cleaner base for the next advance.
MSTR: Treasury Firms Lead BTC Amplification
MSTR and ASST treasury plays target high amplification ratios on Bitcoin upside, with BTC at $82657 amid neutral RSI and bullish MACD on 4h chart. Source Analysis MSTR and ASST treasury vehicles emerge as the fastest horses for Bitcoin exposure through elevated amplification ratios that preserve upside without dilution as BTC climbs.
AI Adoption: 2% Rate Delays 50% Uptake to 2032
AI at 2% adoption now, with enterprise AI adoption key to GDP share as only 3% US households pay per a16z and WSJ data. Source Analysis AI adoption sits at 2% with mass uptake unlikely before 2032 per a16z data, while enterprise AI adoption drives the economics as consumers remain at just 3% payment rate.
JR Willet: Bitcoin Power Law Discovery Attribution
Analysis JR Willet (Dacoinminister) preceded Trolololo, Giovanni and others in discovering the Bitcoin Power Law model, according to fresh Grok app confirmation circulating on Bitcoin Twitter.
Bitcoin: J.R. Willett Discovered Power Law in 2013
Analysis Bitcoin power law discovery belongs to J.R. Willett in 2013 according to fresh evidence shared in a thread by @Andre_Dragosch, ahead of later explanations from others. Price action on the 4h chart shows BTC at $84966.24 inside a bullish structure with EMA50 support at $84154.98 and EMA200 at $80744.26.
Bitcoin: Closes Q3 Up 39.6% Outperforming Assets
Analysis Bitcoin closed Q3 up 39.6%, outperforming gold, the S&P 500 and silver according to data shared by @Andre_Dragosch. At $83866.89 the asset holds a bullish trend structure with the EMA50 at $83564.26 acting as immediate support and the EMA200 at $79871.4 marking the deeper floor.
Bitcoin: Fractal Cycle Holds With 6 Months to 2025 Top
Analysis Bitcoin maintains its unbroken 4-year fractal cycle first mapped in 2015, with the markup phase still active and six months remaining until the projected October 12-16 2025 top according to Alphractal analysis shared by @Andre_Dragosch. Price action at $83429.58 sits inside the Bollinger Bands with upper resistance at $84273.63 and lower support at $82788.58.
Exacore: Bloomberg Notes Sale Report Corrected
Exacore did not raise $2 billion through the sale of notes, correcting inaccuracies in the Bloomberg article on Adam Back's Bitcoin empire facing hacks and lawsuits. BTC price prediction models now factor in the current $85223.69 level where EMA50 at $83567.79 provides concrete support within the bullish trend structure while price tests upper Bollinger resistance at $85146.97, pointing to a healthy retracement toward that 50-EMA before continuation as the MACD golden cross holds.
Bitcoin: Satoshi Address Sends 598.5 BTC to Bitfinex
Analysis Bitcoin linked to Satoshi Nakamoto transferred 598.5 BTC to Bitfinex for the first time in 16 years in a transaction mined by MARA Slipstream. BTC price sits at $83488.16 inside Bollinger Bands with EMA50 at $83494.81 acting as immediate resistance and EMA200 at $79325.97 providing distant floor while MACD death cross at -161.22 confirms bearish momentum and RSI at 47.03 shows neutral conditions.
Bitcoin: 82% Addresses in Profit
Analysis Bitcoin addresses in profit hit 82% as BTC trades at $83592.25, extending the bull market streak that began 12 months ago.
Bitcoin: Dollar Correlation Beats Growth Link
Analysis Bitcoin currently tracks the dollar more closely than global growth expectations unlike the S&P 500, according to André Dragosch's macro factor model, which raises the odds of asset decoupling even as monetary policy expectations tighten to 2022 levels.
Monetary Policy: Tightness Matches 2022 Powell Levels
Monetary policy expectations hit 2022/23 tightness levels, flagging growth repricing and stock market correction risk per André Dragosch. Source Analysis Monetary policy expectations have tightened to levels last seen during the post-Covid Powell hikes of 2022/23. André Dragosch flags elevated odds of growth repricing and a stock market correction on the back of this setup.
Bitcoin ETPs: Record $3.33B Inflows Since October
Analysis Bitcoin and crypto ETPs recorded the strongest net inflows since October, with BTC leading at +$2.46B, ETH at +$0.635B, alts ex-ETH at +$0.245B and basket products at -$0.009B for a total +$3.33B, confirming institutional appetite is back and directly supporting bitcoin etp inflows and broader crypto institutional investment.
S&P 500: MOVE Index Surge Tests Resilience
S&P 500 shrugs off MOVE Index explosion toward 130 as bond volatility climbs, raising bailout signals per Arthur Hayes.
Bitcoin: Shielded L1 Transfers Hit Privacy Coins
Analysis Bitcoin shielded transfers on L1 from Alloc Init deliver a direct headwind for privacy coins, according to André Dragosch. Price action shows BTC at $84623.28 inside Bollinger Bands with upper resistance at $87420.08. The 50-EMA at $82563.79 and 200-EMA at $77387.23 anchor the bullish structure while MACD death cross at 567.7 signals fading momentum and RSI at 54.48 stays neutral. A test of upper band resistance often precedes a retracement toward 50-EMA support before continuation.
Bitcoin: Cycle Bottom Live Space Scheduled
Analysis Bitcoin analysts @Andre_Dragosch from Bitwise_Europe and @cornMaxy join CFBenchmarks for a live space on the BTC cycle bottom at 11am ET tomorrow. Price sits at $84121.59 inside Bollinger Bands with upper resistance at $87434.74 and lower support at $83297.63.
Bitcoin: Global Money Supply Model Sets $197k Equilibrium
Analysis Bitcoin equilibrium price sits at $197k according to the latest global money supply model shared by André Dragosch.
Bitcoin: Gundlach Flags Fed Trap Boosting BTC
Analysis @Andre_Dragosch shared Gundlach's assessment that the Fed faces an impossible bind where Bitcoin prevails in default or high-inflation outcomes. Price action at $83538.47 holds above the EMA50 at $82445.61 and far clear of the EMA200 at $77303.61, yet the MACD death cross at 540.07 signals fading momentum while RSI at 47.83 stays neutral inside the Bollinger band with upper resistance at $87494 and lower support at $83180.07.
US 10Y Yields: 5.4% Level Risks S&P 500 Break
US 10Y yields climb but sit below 5.4% threshold that historically raises S&P 500 correction odds and sets up Bitcoin bull market conditions. Source Analysis US 10Y yields have risen sharply yet sit short of the 5.4% mark where historical event studies show the odds of a S&P 500 correction jump materially, according to André Dragosch. The analysis ties such a bond shock directly to potential Fed intervention and the launch of a full Bitcoin bull market.
US 10Y Yield: Shock Size to Trigger S&P 500 Drop
US 10Y Yield shock thresholds that raise S&P 500 -10% correction odds, per new event study, with Bitcoin bull market implications. Source Analysis US 10Y Yield shocks and their speed determine when S&P 500 faces elevated -10% correction risk, according to a fresh historical event study from André Dragosch that ties bond-stock moves to potential Fed pivot and full Bitcoin bull market.
Bitcoin: Risk-Free Rate Volatility Draws Scrutiny
Analysis @Andre_Dragosch flagged unusual swings in the risk-free rate via Bitcoin News, underscoring how traditional benchmarks now exhibit crypto-like price action. Price sits at $84262.07 inside Bollinger Bands with upper resistance at $88701.15 and lower support at $80953.05. The structure remains bullish above the EMA50 at $82193.14 yet the MACD death cross at 1096.31 warns of momentum fade, while RSI at 53.02 stays neutral.
US 10-Year Yield: Returns Above 5%
US 10-Year Yield tops 5% as bond markets tighten, pressuring Bitcoin price prediction and crypto market impact. Source Analysis US 10-Year Yield has climbed back above 5%, a move that immediately tightens financing conditions and forces fresh scrutiny on Bitcoin price prediction models plus overall crypto market impact.
Bitcoin: AI Peak Attention Fuels BTC Opportunity
Analysis Bitcoin stands to capitalize on peak AI attention as @Andre_Dragosch highlighted the opportunity while noting the BTC bull run has only just begun. Historical Bitcoin performance during previous AI or tech hype cycles shows similar detachment that later fueled sharp advances, aligning with current Bitcoin bull market narratives when AI attention peaks.
Bitwise: Bitcoin Decouples from US Stocks, Officially Enters Digital Gold Pricing Cycle
The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has reached a new high since 2020. Written by: André Dragosch, Head of European Research at Bitwise Compiled by: Luffy, Foresight News One of the longest-standing controversies surrounding Bitcoin is whether it truly qualifies as "digital gold." Proponents of this view argue from a theoretical standpoint that Bitcoin, like gold, possesses scarcity, interchangeability, and divisibility, and can be held without third-party custody.
Bitcoin: Surpasses $69k on Holder Cost Basis
Analysis Bitcoin has broken above $69,000 with its native short-term holder cost basis sitting at $68.5k, a key demarcation line between bull and bear markets per Andre Dragosch. At $68638.38 price tests upper Bollinger resistance at $67525.43 while RSI(14) at 85.38 flashes overbought, pointing to a healthy retracement toward EMA50 support at $64251.99 before continuation amid BTC price prediction and crypto market analysis.
Bitcoin: Leads Liquidity Shifts
Bitcoin is outpacing traditional financial indicators by serving as the ultimate liquidity gauge in today's macro environment. Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, highlights how BTC responds to subtle shifts in global money supply and negative real rates before they hit official data or central bank announcements. Sovereign stress from rising bond yields amps up pressure for interventions, positioning Bitcoin as a forward-looking asset that leads liquidity cycles.
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